666
FXAK67 PAJK 202034
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1134 AM AKST Thu Nov 20 2025

.Mid Morning and Aviation Update...
A few changes have been made to the short term forecast through
Thursday afternoon. Forecast sustained winds have largely been
decreased to 20 to 30 mph as this front passes over this afternoon,
with gusts up to 40mph still expected overland. For marine and
inner channels, a similar story, decreased sustained winds
overall but still expecting isolated gale force gusts in the
central gulf and areas through Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, and
up Clarence Strait through the afternoon. Winds will peak through
the next few hours before steadily through late this evening and
into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Friday morning/
As of 11am, VFR flight conditions for the far northern TAF sites
of Haines and Yakutat with MVFR to IFR flight conditions for the
Icy Strait Corridor southward, including Yakutat and Juneau, with
CIGS AoB 2500ft and visbys as low as 2SM with heavier showers as
secondary front moves on shore. Deteriorated flight trends will
remain generally the same through the rest of the afternoon, MVFR
to IFR conditions will become predominate and prevail with
elevated winds persisting into the late evening. Anticipate
sustained 10 to 20kt winds with gusts up to 25kts persisting
through the day. Strongest winds expected across the N Panhandle,
like Skagway and Haines, as bulk of pressure gradient tightens as
front pushes inland, sustained winds 20 to 30kts with Gusts up to
40 to 45kts for a brief period this evening. SE-ly LLWS around 30
to 35kts will persist through this afternoon turning SW-ly around
00z and diminishing as front pushes through the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 556 AM AKST Thu Nov 20 2025...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Gale force front pushes through the panhandle early Thursday.

 - Winter Weather Advisory has been extended for the Klondike
   Highway near White Pass until 6 AM Friday for long duration
   snowfall, with an additional 6 to 12 inches expected through
   early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM.../ Through Thursday night / Next frontal band
spreading out of the Gulf of Alaska into the panhandle on
Thursday. The northern panhandle has the remains of a previous
system lifting into Northwest Canada, will open the southern flow
pattern. The flow aloft of the panhandle keeps the snow falling
along the Klondike through the day with moderate accumulations.
Winds picking back up over the with front spreading into the
panhandle so expect to see the gusty winds of 35 to 45 mph at
times while the front pushes through the coastal communities and
along the inner channels. Winds becoming westerly by evening
hours behind the front so minor burst with the directions shift,
but the westerly flow will continue so should see showers/rain
continue with the onshore flow pattern.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...Waves continue to rotate
around the low in the northwestern Gulf through the end of this
week, allowing for precipitation to continue across the panhandle
Friday into the weekend. There will be a general downward trend
in precipitation amounts as the low in the Gulf weakens Friday and
Saturday, before ridging begins to build Sunday into Monday,
bringing a drier and colder trend for early next week.

A shortwave will follow up behind the last wave of precipitation on
Friday, the highest rates being for the late morning through the
evening across the panhandle. Largely expecting between 0.4 and 0.6
inches in 24 hours across the panhandle Friday, with between 2 and 3
inches of snow in 24 hours for the Klondike Highway above 2000 ft
and less than an inch of snow expected for the Haines Highway near
the border. The snow being expected mostly in the night and early
morning for the Haines Highway and above 2000 ft for the Klondike is
due to the higher snow levels and warmer 850 mb temperatures Friday.

Both snow levels and 850 mb temperatures however will begin to
decrease over the northern panhandle into Saturday from the weaker
onshore flow and less warm air advecting into the area as the low
begins to weaken, and as a high begins to develop to the northeast /
east over British Columbia into Sunday. Precipitation will linger
across the panhandle but largely diminish Saturday into Sunday, with
the highest PoPs remaining along the outside coastline and southern
panhandle by Sunday. The northern panhandle will begin to rapidly
diminish Sunday night into Monday, as weak offshore flow from the N
and E from the surface high pressure strengthening over Canada while
the low diminishes to rather weak troughing over the Gulf. Snow
levels as well as temperatures will begin to drop into Monday,
particularly for the northern panhandle as 850 mb temperatures
decrease to -7 to -9 degrees C, however the lack of QPF will result
in a cold and drier pattern come for early next week. However, as
snow levels begin to drop and temperatures along with it Saturday
night and through Sunday, there is potential for some rain snow
mixing north of Icy Strait Corridor Saturday night through Sunday.
PoPs will decrease throughout this time frame and becoming a slight
chance to chance Sunday night, and the decreased QPF amounts will
lead to very little to no accumulation even if snow mixing occurs.
Even along the highways, the low QPF amounts Saturday and Sunday
will only allow for around an inch of snow accumulation.


MARINE...
Outside Waters:
A gale force front is pushing into the panhandle through early
Thursday. Coastal buoys currently reporting southeasterly
sustained near gales to gale force winds (28 to 40 kts) with gale
to storm force gusts (34 to 47 kts) decreasing through the next
few hours. Wave heights up to 22 ft with 20 ft southeasterly swell
will decrease to 10 to 15 ft overnight with 8 to 10 ft swell.
Another strong front will follow close behind, moving into the
gulf overnight and swinging up into the panhandle Thursday
morning. Southwesterly gale force winds will follow this front
through the central gulf, but strongest speeds will only reach the
coast through the early morning hours before pulling back to stay
in the central gulf. Speeds will gradually diminish to strong
breezes to near gales (22 to 33 kts) through Thursday. Wave
heights will increase back up to 25 ft offshore Thursday afternoon
with 15 to 20 ft swell turning southwesterly, but will quickly
decrease to around 15 ft into Friday morning.

Inside Waters:
Another strong front moves through the panhandle through Thursday,
widespread near gale to gale force wind gusts (28 to 40 kts) will
push north through the channels. Speeds will begin to decrease
through Thursday afternoon, but sustained winds will still stay
elevated at fresh breezes with spots of strong breezes before
decreasing into Friday. Channel entrances will see wave heights
reach 10 to 15 ft with both systems, dropping down closer to 10 ft
in between. The rest of the inner channels will see around 3 to 5
ft heights increase to 6 to 8 ft with the peak of the front.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Friday for AKZ318.
Strong Wind from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM AKST this evening
for AKZ318. Strong Wind from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM AKST
this evening for AKZ332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-652. Small Craft Advisory for
PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644- 651-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZTK
SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Bezenek/NM

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