237
FXAK67 PAJK 021752
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
852 AM AKST Tue Dec 2 2025

.UPDATE...Update to aviation section to include 18z TAF
issuance...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Another front arrives late Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing
   predominantly rain, some increased wind, and continued warmer-
   than- normal temperatures into midweek.

 - Late week into next weekend, long range models are still
   hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
   heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
   closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/...SW onshore flow is
dominate this morning across the area though winds in general are
15 kt or less for the most part. The onshore flow from the gulf
combined with the recent precipitation, and the long nights this
time of year are creating widespread low clouds with some fog and
drizzle this morning. Yakutat, Gustavus, Petersburg, and Sitka
have been the most impacted with ceilings down to 200 ft and vis
below a mile at times overnight. Petersburg in particular, had had
vis down to a quarter mile which prompted a dense fog advisory
until 9 am for them.

Short range forecast features a transition from SW flow and soupy
conditions to more southerly winds with increasing wind speeds
and precip as a new front moves in from the W later today into
tonight. The transition to southerly will occur during the day,
but winds will stay somewhat low (15 kt or less) across the
panhandle until starting to increase this evening. This combined
with the low sun angle this time of year may cause the low clouds
and fog to linger into the afternoon and maybe early evening
before improving as winds start increasing and heavier precip
moves in. So have kept patchy fog for many inner channels areas
through the afternoon hours today.

As for the front, the increased winds and rain will be starting
to show up along the outer coast as early as late this afternoon
before spreading inland through the evening. The period of max
winds and rain for the panhandle will be from around late evening
to early Wednesday morning. Neither the winds or the precip will
be exceptionally strong with this front. Winds will likely max out
around 25 kt with most of that being out in the gulf waters.
Meanwhile the precip (mostly falling as rain with snow levels
around 2500 to 3000 ft) will total around 0.25 to 0.75 inches
through midday Wednesday. White Pass will likely see snow, but
with not much moisture expected to make it up that way snow
amounts will likely only be around 1 to 2 inches over any given 12
hour period.

.LONG TERM.../through this weekend/...The upcoming week is
looking like another cloudy and rainy week. There will be lulls
between the frontal passages, with precipitation chances mainly
limited to western facing mountains, but the overall trend in the
long term forecast is cloudy and rainy this week. But late this
week into next weekend, ensembles are hinting at a weather pattern
that has been known to produce heavy snow.

Friday into the weekend, the overall weather pattern looks to
change. Ensembles are hinting at a upper air low pressure
descending south out of central Alaska. Run to run ensembles have
increasingly placed this low to the west of Anchorage, but cluster
analysis has this low as far east as Prince William Sound, around
a 40% or less chance of occurrence. What this translates into
sensible weather for the panhandle is how deep will the cold pool
in Canada get. The further east the low center is, the more the
cold pool in Canada will be developed, and the further south the
southwesterly flow will be. The stronger the cold pool in Canada
is, the further south the associated arctic boundary will be,
which will dictate what part of the panhandle will get the most
snow. At this point, guidance is backing off on the low placement
to west of Anchorage as the more likely scenario, which would
bring warmer temperatures further north, keeping the arctic
boundary near the northern panhandle.

Confidence is low for placement of heaviest snow, with confidence
intervals for the northern half of the panhandle being between
all rain with little to no snow accumulation to nearly 12 inches
of snow in 24 hours.

Furthermore, there is evidence that if this upcoming weekend
system does not generate substantial snowfall for the panhandle,
early to mid next week is shaping up to keep this pattern going,
which would result in multiple rounds of snow. These upcoming
systems will be carefully watched over the following days.

Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread lowered conditions continue to be prevalent
through Tuesday morning as fog and low CIGs AoB 1000ft stick
around preceding a front moving into the panhandle Tuesday
evening. Many TAF sites are currently seeing MVFR to IFR
conditions with Petersburg and Ketchikan holding onto LIFR
conditions with VIS AoB 2SM and calm winds. Conditions are
expected to remain lowered through the day with little improvement
through the 24 hour period, as light winds and low sun angle
helps to reinforce the lowered cloud layers. As the front reaches
the outer coast of the panhandle Tuesday afternoon, winds are
expected to increase to around 10 kts with potential for 20 kt
gusts and moderate rainfall rates. Lowest CIG layers may attempt
to rise as the higher cloud deck associated with the front moves
in, though MVFR conditions or lower are still expected to prevail
through the period. Near 2000-2200 local time Tuesday night LLWS
threats begin along the coast from southeast winds 30 to 40 knots
at 2500ft.

&&

.MARINE...
Gulf Waters: Incoming front is already starting to switch wind
directions across the gulf as winds at buoy 46085 have already
turned to the SE while the buoys closer to shore are starting to
turn SW this morning. Expect those winds to continue to turn to
the SE with an increase in speeds to around 25 kt by this
afternoon and evening from W to E with winds near the coast
staying near 25 kt through the night. Winds are then expected to
switch to the S and then SW at 20 kt again for Wednesday in the
post front environment. Seas are rather high with 10 ft wave
heights mainly from a SW swell of 8 ft (period 14 sec). Not much
change is expected for seas heights overall with 10 ft wave
heights common. The increased winds from the front will briefly
take over wave generation duties as SW swell diminishes to 6 ft
later today. However as the wind diminish, the SW swell picks up
to 8 ft again into Wednesday before starting to slowly subside
into Wednesday night.

Inside waters: Lighter winds to 15 kt from the south will rule
the inner channels for Tuesday. These lower winds are helping form
some patchy fog in some areas with visibility down to less then a
mile at times. Fog is expected to persist through the morning and
may even last into the afternoon in some areas due to the low
winds and low sun angle. Expect winds to start increasing this
evening as a front approaches likely getting rid of most of the
fog, but heavier precip will start moving in with the wind
increase. Max winds will be around 20 to 25 kt late tonight mainly
over the southern 2/3rds of the inner channels before diminishing
into Wednesday afternoon. Seas (mainly wind wave) will build to 5
ft tonight before subsiding into Wednesday. SW swell from the
gulf will lead to higher seas in ocean entrances exposed to the SW
and W with up to 8 ft seas encountered in these areas through
Wednesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ326.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-034-036-053-641>644-651-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau