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FXAK67 PAJK 142243
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
243 PM AKDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/...An easterly wave
continues to stream over the northern Panhandle. Most consistent
and heaviest rainfall has been in the Juneau area based on
observations. The wave set up slightly farther south than
originally anticipated such that steady rain has fallen for most
of the day as far south as Angoon and as far north as Gustavus.
However, only a trace has been observed through the day in Haines
and Skagway. As a result, rising levels on the Chilkat, Taiya and
Skagway rivers will be less impressive through this short term
forecast period. An SPS has been issued to address rising water
levels resulting from rainfall and snowmelt. Precipitation trend
through the short term period will be a diminishing one with
decreasing cloud cover. SEAK will also see warmer daytime highs
(finally) with max temps for Friday 8 to 10 degrees warmer than
today.

Winds on the inside and outside continue to be non-
impactful...except for Lynn Canal, Taiya Inlet, and Skagway.
There, southerly 20 to 30 kt winds as of this afternoon are
expected to diminish overnight and become northerly by Friday
morning.


.LONG TERM...Forecast remains on track for the long range as high
pressure aloft rotates around the state and western Canada. Thunderstorms
will continue to form in Canada Sunday into Monday, which could
move over the Coast Mountains into the Panhandle. For mariners
operating in the far interior inner channels keep an eye on the
sky and watch for erratic winds. Without considering thunderstorm
potential, conditions are partly cloudy and largely dry across the
Panhandle with temperatures slightly above their seasonal normal
for locations outside the marine layer influence. Northwest flow
along the coast will bring 15 to 20 knot winds and elevated
afternoon sea breezes in the inner channels as well. Looking
upstream fire activity across the Yukon and BC territories remain
minimal but if any existing fires experience rapid growth over
the next 24 hours patterns aloft will steer some elevated smoke
into the region. By late Wednesday a shortwave trough will begin
to influence the weather across the Panhandle, with onshore flow
returning, increasing PoPs through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION... Clearing conditions aloft overnight will allow fog
to form in areas similar to this morning like Craig, PAKW, PAPG,
etc, along with some MVFR CIGS sticking around in Icy Strait. VFR
by Saturday afternoon with the potential for thunderstorms to
cross from Canada over the Coast Range into the Panhandle.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fritsch
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...AP

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