635
FXAK67 PAJK 092327
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
327 PM AKDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SHORT TERM...High pressure continues to remain over the Gulf
this afternoon while a marine layer still tries to hold onto
places across the panhandle. Some areas have been able to break
out completely while other areas have struggled to see significant
clearing. This layer is expected to try and persist. A weak
surface low and associated front are expected to develop as a
result of a passing upper level trough axis moving through the
area. This low will bring some increased winds to the area while
it works across the northern Gulf. Besides some increases in
winds, rain is expected to return to the panhandle, mainly north
of the Icy Strait corridor. Rainfall amounts at this time are
expected to be less than half an inch for most places. Farther
south, fairly quiet weather continues as the influence of high
pressure over the Gulf remains. After this weak system moves
through, high pressure returns back into the area continuing the
trend of relatively quiet weather.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/...
  Key Messages:
- High pressure remains over the gulf through the long term
  forecast period, sliding further south early next week
- Weak Northerly outflow Saturday, cooler temperatures with clearer
  skies overnight Friday lasting into Sunday
- Rain chances increase later Sunday and into early next week
- Moderate to heavy rain possible for northern gulf coast Tuesday

Building on the short range discussion, weak high pressure will
build in the interior and Yukon behind a quick moving short wave
feature to start the weekend. While high pressure builds over the
interior and Yukon Territory, high pressure will also remain over
the gulf and NE Pacific. As a result, northerly outflow will
develop with winds increasing along north/south oriented channels.
The strongest winds are still expected along Lynn Canal and
Chatham Strait early Saturday morning. The primary driver of the
increased pressure gradient over the inner channels was the
interaction between high pressure over the interior and a trough
moving northward from the pacific Northwest into the vicinity of
southern Haida Gwaii. However, model guidance has trended to
reduce the northward track of this feature, as well as lowering
its strength. As a result, the pressure gradient developing over
the panhandle Friday into Saturday will likely be lessened,
resulting in weaker outflow. As of this forecast issuance,
sustained winds are now only expected to reach fresh breeze (17
to 21 kt), with gusts up to 30 kt for Lynn Canal for a brief
period early Saturday morning. While this dry northerly outflow is
not expected to be as robust, confidence remains for that
Saturday and Sunday minimum temperatures to reach near or below
freezing at sea level for most communities in the northern and
central panhandle, particularly those furthest from the outer
coast and sheltered from any significant wind. Daytime maximum
temperatures will likely be limited to the low 50s or upper 40s
for the inner channels while outer coastal communities could
reach the mid 50s.

Outflow winds are expected to have diminished by Saturday night
with otherwise cool and clear conditions persisting into early
Sunday. Later Sunday and into Monday, model guidance still
diverges on timing for the next organized system to impact the
panhandle. While some models bring a weak front into the panhandle
late Sunday night along with a long fetched plume of moisture,
others have the high pressure in the gulf staving this off for a
bit longer into Monday or even early Tuesday. Either way though
when it does arrive it would likely bring moderate to potentially
heavy rain to the northern coast, and then light to moderate rain
to the rest of the panhandle as it spreads eastward. Overall
message though is increasing chances for more unsettled weather
early next week after an otherwise fairly crisp and breezy
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
A marine layer is resulting in low stratus and patchy fog across
much of the north inner channels of the panhandle, from Frederick
Sound on north and over across Yakutat Bay. While flight
conditions improved slightly this afternoon, expecting VIS and
CIGs to dip back down to MVFR, with IFR flight conditions expected
for Yakutat. Down towards Petersburg and Wrangell, also expecting
IFR flight conditions to develop tonight, as these were areas
that saw fog and/or low stratus this morning. A quick-moving
system will bring rain and likely MVFR flight conditions tonight
into tomorrow morning, with CIGS AOB 3kt, across the northern
panhandle from Icy Strait up north towards Haines and Skagway.
Improving flight conditions expected tomorrow afternoon in the
wake of the system, with CIGs becoming AOA 3kft

Winds will generally be light around 8kt or less through the TAF
period. However, with the system passing through, Haines and
Skagway will increase to 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure remains over the
Gulf this afternoon with a weak low forming in the Prince William
Sound area. As this low develops further and tracks to the east,
winds are expected to increase with this system as moderate to
strong breezes are expected for the coastal waters. Seas will remain
elevated and eventually build with the low. Current readings from
Gulf buoys is around 7-9 ft but these wave heights are expected to
increase to 9-10 ft for these areas while farther offshore, wave
heights could be up to 15 ft. As this system dissipates and moves to
the east, high pressure is expected to return to the Gulf bringing
northwest flow to the area.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light winds persist for the Inner Channels
this afternoon and a marine layer is spread across most of the Inner
Channels from Sumner Strait northward. This marine layer is expected
to persist through the overnight hours tonight as an approaching
weak low will try to increase wind speeds for the area. With this
marine layer over the Inner Channels, reduced visibilities are
possible. Especially for areas that are sheltered from the wind.
Headed into tomorrow, high pressure returns to control for the area
and north to northwest winds return for most of the Inner Channels
that are favored during high pressure.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...SF

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