966
FXAK67 PAJK 041421
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
521 AM AKST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Lingering rain and drizzle will diminish through the day.

 - Onshore flow will keep the warmer-than-normal temps in place.
   Colder weather begins to slide south into the area Friday
   night.

 - This weekend into next week, long range models are still
   hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
   heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
   closely

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...
The front has exited the region, however, ridging, lighter
onshore flow and warmer-than-normal temps will persist in its wake.
Satellite imagery and model soundings are indicating a lack of
mid to high clouds across the region, but low-level moisture and
low clouds persist. Looking at surface obs, area 12Z soundings
and webcams, drizzle, mist and occasional fog/low stratus are
present across most, if not all of SE AK this morning. Little
change is expected through tonight with drizzle/mist/light rain
and occasional fog persisting.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...A pattern change going
into this weekend is looking to bring cold temperatures, heavy
precipitation, and strong winds to the panhandle into early next
week.

A system advancing into the northern gulf through Friday will
send a front into the panhandle overnight Friday before stalling
in the northern gulf through the weekend, funneling consistent
moisture over the panhandle. This front will bring moderate to
heavy rain rates to the area, with around an inch expected for a
majority of locations and persisting at similar rates through the
weekend. A cold air mass aloft shifts into the Yukon and continues
to moves southward through the weekend. A tightening pressure
gradient over the northern panhandle will increase outflow winds
through the weekend, helping to funnel the colder air south into
the panhandle. Decreasing temperatures with ample available
moisture will increase the potential for heavy snowfall in the
northern panhandle, extending south through the weekend and into
next week. Highest confidence of snowfall remains across the far N
Panhandle and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Haines and
Skagway starting Friday night, continuing through Saturday.
Looking elsewhere, Yakutat will also see higher amounts of snow,
but currently expecting just below warning levels. Forecast
becomes more of a challenge moving towards the Icy Strait
Corridor, starting as rain and transitioning into a mix by
Saturday, limiting potential amounts initially. Snow level drop
south following the colder temperatures, snow potential will also
move further south towards the corridor, and the rain/snow mix
will then follow into the central panhandle. Stay tuned to the
forecast moving into the weekend as details come into clearer view
regarding potential amounts and refined timing for the Icy Strait
Corridor and Yakutat.

As the gale force low moves into the northern Gulf and a high
sets up to the north of the panhandle into this weekend, northerly
flow begins to set up over the northern panhandle into Lynn
Canal. This cold air mass to the north contributes to the colder
temperature trend over the weekend and into early next week,
alongside bringing stronger winds down Lynn Canal. These winds
will begin to increase Saturday into Sunday with northerly gales
in northern Lynn Canal with 35 to 40 kt winds by Sunday afternoon
as the gradient tightens over the northern panhandle. Winds will
increase in Skagway at this time, however the stronger sustained
winds will likely stay below 30 mph, with the northerly wind not
being expected to be strong enough to dry out the air too much
enough to reduce the snowfall amounts. Other land areas will see
an increase in SE winds as the front moves through, with
diminished winds between the waves of precipitation that push
through this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Friday evening/ Not a great morning to be
flying across the panhandle this Thursday. A wide variety of
flight conditions are present, though generally between LIFR and
MVFR as onshore flow keeps low clouds, mist, and isolated showers
across the panhandle. Looking at obs around the area, TAF sites
range from isolated pockets of LIFR and IFR to a few pockets with
CIGS AoB 2500ft. VISBYS are fluctuating from place to place, with
areas seeing 6SM one ob, then plummeting the next. Through the
remainder of Thursday morning, expect conditions to continue to
remain subpar, with low ceilings persisting; some minor
improvement in VISBYS and low CIGS are expected Thursday
afternoon. and visbys slow improving through Thursday afternoon.
Winds should remain on the lighter side, with most TAF sites
seeing 5-10 kt through the day on Thursday. Thursday night, expect
many sites to once more see CIGS and VIS deteriorate,
particularly those in the central and northern panhandle as
onshore flow lingers here. Potential for some improvement in
conditions by late Friday morning as winds begin strengthening
ahead of an approaching system. No LLWS concerns through the TAF
period.


&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters:
Winds continue their downward trend Thursday as ridging passes
over the Gulf waters with seas 7 and 9 ft by. Winds and seas look
to rise Thursday night into Friday, especially from Cape Edgecombe
south, as a low is projected to pass through the southern Gulf and
towards Haida Gwaii. For the weekend, a forecasted low near the
northern Gulf will give the eastern Gulf waters 25 to 35kts and a
building southwesterly swell, with seas becoming 15+ ft by Sunday.
These elevated winds and seas will last into next week.

Inside waters:
Winds continue their diminishing trend across the inner channels
Thursday as ridging sets up in the Gulf. However, winds are
expected to begin to increase Thursday night and Friday morning
across the southern inner channels with a system passing south of
the panhandle near Haida Gwaii, with brief northerly/easterly
outflow developing to the north. Southerly winds return by Friday
morning but Friday night, northerly flow returns to Lynn Canal.
Speeds in the inner channels pick up to 20 to 25 kts by Friday
night with the weekend seeing 25 to 35 kts.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday
     night for AKZ318-319.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...DS

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