172
FXUS61 KAKQ 182335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
635 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore into this evening ahead of a low
pressure system, which will bring a quick chance of rain tonight
through early Wednesday morning. Primarily dry Wednesday and
Thursday as high pressure returns. Another low pressure system
will bring chances for light rain Friday Night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Brief round of rain showers moves through the area tonight. Greatest
  rainfall north of RIC to MD Eastern Shore.

Low pressure over the MS/OH valley will move east and across the
region tonight. This will allow a warm front with associated
isentropic lift to pass across the area bringing a brief round of
rain showers across mainly VA and MD overnight. Latest radar
imagery shows some showers to the north of Richmond. Dry sub-
cloud airmass continues to limit the precip reaching the ground.
Dew points have started to increase allowing some saturation,
but rainfall totals currently are still less than 0.05".
Highest chances for rain (categorical PoPs) will remain across
the far north into the lower MD eastern shore overnight due to
the best frontogentical forcing and isentropic lift. Rainfall
amounts as high as 0.25-0.5" possible in this area. In fact,
there is about a 40% probability of at least 0.5" rainfall in
SBY overnight. Lesser amounts of precip further south, with less
than a 0.10" likely along/south of the VA/NC border. Only about
a 25% probability of at least 0.10" near the VA/NC border and
about a 10% probability of 0.10" in Bertie County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry through Thursday with a chance for rain later Friday.

There may be a few lingering showers at the coast early Wednesday
morning. Otherwise, high pressure will build across the region into
Thursday leading to dry conditions. The NAM suggests that the
eastern shore may see some light drizzle Wed night due to cyclonic
onshore flow around the surface low offshore, but for now will just
keep areas closer to the coast mostly cloudy.  Another weak area of
low pressure develops across the TN Valley which will allow another
weak front to move northward across the area. This may bring small
chances for showers Friday into Friday night but the rainfall should
be light depending on where the baroclinic zone sets up. At
this time, the best chances for rain will be across the north.
Seasonable temperatures expected with mid 50s north to upper
60s/lower 70s south on Wednesday. Mid 50s to mid 60s on
Thursday. Lows staying in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Other than small chances for rain showers Saturday morning,Sunday
  through Tuesday is expected to be dry.

A weak frontal boundary is expected to move through the area
Saturday which will keep small chances for rain especially in
the morning. High pressure builds across the area for the
reminder of the week leading to dry weather through Tuesday.
Once again, seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and
lows in the upper 30s and 40s. No appreciable chances for below
freezing temperatures through the middle of next week at least.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions currently across all major terminals to start the
00z/19 TAF period. A warm front will move through the area tonight
along with light rain showers. A few showers have begun to make
their way across the northern portions of the area this evening
moving eastward, although most precip is being absorbed by the dry
sub-cloud airmass and not reaching the ground and limiting rainfall
amounts. All sites are expected to remain VFR throughout the system
except SBY where CIGs/VSBYs are expected to drop to MVFR overnight
as the more moderate rainfall moves through. Any rainfall will be
short lived as the front moves through around sunrise on Wednesday.
MVFR conditions will likely continue at SBY through the morning due
to deeper low level moisture further north. Winds will shift out of
the NW in the morning at 5-10 kt.

Outlook: Mainly VFR Wednesday night and Thursday as weak high
pressure builds back into the area. Another chance for light rain
arrives Friday into Saturday with the next system, which could lead
to flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through Friday
  and into the weekend with multiple brief, sub-SCA surges

High pressure is situated along the local coast and winds have
diminished in response. Latest obs show 5-10kt with some variation
in direction, but mostly onshore. Seas are currently 2-3 ft, with
waves generally measuring 1ft or less. The aforementioned high will
continue to gradually move eastward, ejecting into the western North
Atlantic by this evening. Benign marine conditions will continue
through the remainder of the week. While winds will briefly increase
again by mid-week, SCA conditions are not expected at this time. A
cold front is forecast to move across the area Friday night into
Saturday, which would could bring a period of SCA conditions to the
local waters, though CAA looks to be on the weaker side, confidence
in higher winds continues to decrease. Have kept the wind forecast
below SCA through the weekend and into early next week. Seas will
remain in the 2-3 ft range through the end of the week, while waves
will be in the 1-2 ft range. Behind the front this weekend, seas are
forecast to build to 3-4 ft, with waves in the Bay building to 2-3
ft (highest at the mouth of the Bay).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...KMC/MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KMC/MRD
MARINE...AC/NB