401
FXUS61 KAKQ 022102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues to move to the north allowing skies to
clear and showers to diminish this afternoon. High pressure
returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week.
Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into
Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and clouds decrease through the evening allowing for cold
temperatures for tonight.

- Another cold but dry day is expected tomorrow.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a strong 500mb trough centered over
the eastern half of the United States. At the surface, a 1002mb low
pressure system is just off the VA Eastern Shore. This system has
brought over an inch of beneficial rain across the SE and between .5
to 1" across the rest of the CWA. Clouds and light rain showers
continue across the eastern half of the area with clearing already
beginning towards the west. A large temperature gradient has been
noted across the area this afternoon with upper 30s to low 40s
inland and across the interior portion of the Eastern SHore. While
across the coast line lower to middle 50s have been noted and across
far NE NC near the Sound and Ocean upper 50s to low 60s.

Through the evening and into tonight the low pressure will deepen
and move off to the NE. Behind the low a high pressure will move
into place ushering colder and drier air across the area This will
help with clearing out the remaining showers and clouds. Mostly
clear skies and dry weather conditions are expected tonight with
lows falling into the lower to middle 20s inland and upper 20s to
low 30s along the coast. High pressure will remain in control
tomorrow bringing more sunshine and clear skies. However,
temperatures will remain quite cool with highs only reaching into
the low to middle 40s inland and upper 40s along the coast.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
... As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather continues through Thursday.

- Another weather system is possible Friday into Saturday
potentially bringing mix precipitations.

Primarily SW to zonal flow aloft is expected across the area early
Thursday with a strong trough staying a little north of the area.
High pressure at the surface will slide offshore Wednesday allowing
temperature to "warm" slightly during the day under partly cloudy
skies. High will be in the middle to upper 40s across the north and
Eastern Shore and lower 50s across the south. To the west a cold
front will approach and move across the area ushering in a much
colder airmass. Lows Thursday night will be in upper 20s and lower
30s across the coast and SE and low to middle 20s further inland.
There is even the possibility of upper teens across the far NW. By
Friday the cold front is expected to stall off the coast setting the
stage for our next potential system. Strong zonal flow aloft will be
present over the area with some weak divergence aloft. This will
allow for potential cyclogenesis to occur at the surface and allow for
a formation of a low pressure system. While to the north a high
pressure is expect to move north of the area locking cold air in
place across the area. Highs will be in the middle to upper 30s
inland and low to middle 40s across the SE. The track and strengthen
of the low is unclear at this time and there is still much spread in
the models. The latest ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with the system
and has 60-70% of snow accumulation up to an inch. While the GEFS
has 0% probability. There is also an uncertainty with precipitation
types. There could be the potential of some areas receiving mixed
precipitation which includes freezing rain/sleet. This system is
expected to continue into early Saturday with any precipitation
remaining being switched over to rain by late Saturday. Trends in
the potential system this weekend will continue to be monitored.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
... As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures is expected late this weekend and early
next week.

- Chances of precipitation increase early next week with another
potential system.

By Sunday much cooler temperatures are possible in wake of the
system and behind a cold front and as high pressure moves into
place. Dry weather is expected Sunday with highs only reaching into
the lower to mid 40s inland and upper 40s across the SE. There
remains much uncertainty in early next week with an additional
system due to model disagreement. Some deterministic models remain
quite different than their own ensembles. Due to this uncertainty
have decided to cap off Pops below 20% and have kept a rain/snow
mix in the forecast for know. Only confidence in the extended in
much colder temperatures are possible as the strong high moves into
place. Monday will be the coldest day as of now with highs in the
upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the upper teens to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Tuesday...

Deepening low pressure tracks across the region early this
aftn. Weather conditions are leading to IFR/LIFR along with
reduced vsby in rain and mist. Rain is expected to end rather
quickly from W-E between about 20-22z. However, cigs will be
slow to lift with IFR stratus potentially lingering to 22-01z.
After that, a relatively quick improvement to VFR is expected as
drier air arrives from the NW. The wind have started to shift
out of the NW out of RIC but are remaining out of the SSE across
the coastal and eastern terminals. All terminals will have NW by
this evening as the low tracks further to the north. A period
of LLWS is possible around 18-23z, especially at ECG, and
RIC between 1-8z. A NW wind may gust up to ~20kt this evening
as drier air arrives from the NW.

VFR conditions prevail Wednesday through Thursday as high
pressure builds across the region. Another low pressure system
will bring the potential for degraded flight conditions Friday
into Friday night with rain and a wintry mix possible. Drier
conditions return by Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters today
into Wednesday as a low creates gusty winds.

- Another round of SCAs are likely later Thursday into Friday behind
a cold front.


Sfc low pressure has developed off the local coast this afternoon.
Winds have shifted to the NW, and obs in the bay, rivers and Md
coastal waters have already picked up to 15-20kt. There have been a
few gusts as high as 30-34kt, but most gusts are 25-30kt. Winds in
the rivers did pick up a little earlier than originally forecast, so
went ahead and started the SCAs for these zones a little early. The
bay and coastal waters also have SCAs in effect, and the Currituck
Sound will be added this evening once those stronger winds spread a
little further south. Winds are forecast to remain around 22-25kt
across the Bay and ocean (17-20kt for the rivers and Sound) with
gusts up to 30-32kt this evening into the overnight hours. A few
gale-force gusts to 34kt can`t be ruled out late this evening/early
overnight; however, local wind probabilities for gale gusts continue
to remain very low. Thus, higher-end Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect for all local waters today through the first part of
Wednesday. Waves in the Bay will increase to  3-4ft during the
period of strongest winds overnight. Seas will build to 4-6ft
throughout this evening, with the occasional 7 foot wave out closer
to 20nm.

High pressure then returns to the area on Wednesday allowing winds
to subside and become generally calm before a cold front passes
through later Thursday. This may create another round of SCAs for
portions of the waters into early Friday. Seas will briefly build to
4-5ft, with waves in the Bay returning to the 3-4ft level. Another
low looks to develop offshore on Saturday, though guidance currently
keeps local winds below advisory thresholds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/HET
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...AJZ/HET
MARINE...AC/JKP