855
FXUS61 KAKQ 020157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
857 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered north of the area today in the
wake of yesterday`s cold front. A low pressure system impacts
region later tonight into Tuesday, with a brief period of
freezing rain or sleet in the Piedmont possible early Tuesday
morning. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for
the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the
region Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 857 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread rain is expected late tonight into Tuesday.

- Rain likely starts as a brief wintry mix across far NW
  portions of the Piedmont late tonight into early Tuesday
  morning. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for far
  NW portions of the area for a light ice accumulation.

GOES Nighttime Microphysics is showing upper level cirrus
overspreading the area this evening as a stronger system
approaches the area. High pressure remains stretched across the
area, and winds remain light as a result. With only the thin
clouds in place at this time, along with the light winds,
temperatures have quickly plummeted into the upper 20s to lower
30s (upper 30s along the immediate coast). With the incoming
cloud cover, temperatures should level off soon and may actually
rise a degree or two after midnight as cloud cover thickens.

The aforementioned stronger system is still expected to impact
the region later tonight into Tuesday. Weak low pressure
develops along the Gulf coast later this evening into tonight
ahead of an approaching trough. Widespread precipitation quickly
works into the area after ~2-3 AM from the west and rapidly
spreads eastward. Precipitation likely starts out as a mix of
sleet, snow, and freezing rain across our NW counties before
quickly turning over to plain rain from SE to NW by sunrise.
Across far western/northwestern portions of Louisa and Fluvanna
counties, a light glaze of ice accumulation is possible
(especially on elevated/untreated surfaces) where temps will
linger at or below freezing, allowing for the freezing
rain/sleet mix to hang on longer. All wintry precip comes to an
end by ~7 AM, with a cold rain then expected. A Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect for Louisa and Fluvanna counties
later tonight into Tuesday AM.

Elsewhere, a beneficial steady rainfall is expected later
tonight into Tuesday. The heaviest precip is still expected to
be Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon as low pressure
approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb. PWATs
also increase to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1" for the
remainder of the area. Precip then quickly departs later
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as the low pulls away
from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a
good chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and
points E), with some potential for up to 2" in NE NC. Any
flooding threat is very low due to the progressive nature of
the system and dry antecedent conditions.

Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas,
with milder temps (50s to around 60) across far SE VA and NE NC
(where the warm sector may briefly intrude). It may struggle to
warm out of the 30s NW of Richmond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of an
  approaching (dry) cold front.

High pressure builds back into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Becoming very cold Tuesday night in the wake of the
departing system with lows dropping back into the low to mid 20s
inland and the upper 20s to lower 30s near the coast. Dry
conditions/sunny skies are forecast for Wednesday. Remaining
seasonably cool with high temperatures in the 40s and overnight lows
again in the 20s (low 30s closer to the coast).

Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of a (dry) cold
front which is forecast to cross the area Thursday afternoon. Highs
will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another surge of very cold
air filters into the area in the wake of the front, with lows
dropping back into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly upper
teens NW) Thursday night/Friday AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of
  the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially of
  the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the
  specific details at this range.

Another complex system may impact the area Friday into Saturday.
There remains significant run-to-run variability across the model
guidance, ranging from little to no precip to impactful wintry wx. A
more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of the area, would
lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the coast. The current
model consensus...including the NBM...shows a messy wintry mix for
portions of the area Friday into Saturday night. This could entail a
mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain before changing over to
plain rain. Given the wide spread in model/ensemble solutions,
confidence still remains low in regards to the evolution of this
system/temperatures. It should be noted that latest trends have been
towards a more suppressed system with the latest GFS/GEFS keeping
the majority of the moisture south of the area. The ECMWF/EPS bring
some wintry weather to the area, but less than previous runs. The
NBM has trended down with its PoPs as a result of these changes.

Continue to follow the forecast for the latest updates. Precip then
potentially lingers into the first half of Saturday. Dry wx is
favored later Saturday and especially by next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 645 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the first part of tonight,
followed by a gradual decline in flight conditions early tomorrow
morning. Widespread rain will overtake all terminals tomorrow
morning and linger through the afternoon, with the heaviest rain
expected at the SE terminals. As of now, have kept VIS between 2-
3SM, but there will likely be pockets of greatly reduced visibility
and short-term amendments may be necessary. CIGS will drop to IFR-
LIFR as the bulk of the rain moves through during the day, and will
stay low for a few hours in the evening even after a majority of the
rain has ceased. Conditions will likely start to improve late in the
TAF period, though a few lingering showers are possible through 00z,
especially at ORF, PHF, and ECG. Surface winds will be light
overnight, becoming ESE early tomorrow between 5-10 kts. As an area
of low pressure lifts through the region tomorrow afternoon, winds
will shift rapidly to the WNW and start to increase.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Tuesday night through Thursday.
Another system may approach by Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 645 PM EST Monday...

- Low pressure brings hazardous marine conditions Tuesday
  afternoon into early Wednesday. Solid Small Craft Advisories
  are expected across all waters.

- Another round of Solid SCA conditions are likely Thursday
  night into Friday morning behind a strong cold front.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a 1028mb high pressure centered
over the north Mid-Atlantic region. Winds have lowered this
afternoon but remain out of the NNE between 5 to 10 kt with gusts
upwards of 15 kt. Seas have lowered as well and are between 1 to 2
ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean. SCAs have
been allowed to expire. Throughout tonight a low pressure
system is expected to develop along the stalled cold front just
off the coast. As this low tracks along the east coast, winds
will begin to shift out of the east but remain below SCA
criteria through most of tonight and early Tuesday morning.
Winds will be between 10 to 15 kt and waves will remain between
1 to 2 ft across the bay, with 3 to 4 ft seas across the ocean.
By sunrise tomorrow, winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with
gusts upwards of 25 kt across the ocean. SCAs have been issued
for all coastal waters starting at 6am. While across the bay and
rivers, winds will remain just shy of SCA criteria Tuesday
morning. By Tuesday afternoon the low is expected to strengthen
bringing high-end SCA conditions across all waters with a few
hours of gale-force winds possible. Winds will increase out of
the NE behind the low to 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30kt.
SCA will continue to remain in effect across the ocean but will
go into effect across the bay, rivers, and sound. Local wind
probs for Gale conditions have dropped quite a bit. Therefore,
the Gale watch has been able to be dropped across the bay and
all of the coastal waters. Seas build to 5-7ft and waves in the
Ches. Bay build to 3-5ft. High pressure returns Wednesday aftn
into Wednesday night, before sliding offshore Thursday. Another
cold front is expected to move across the coast Thursday night,
which will bring the potential for SCA conditions. Another low
pressure system potentially impacts the region later this week
but confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for
     VAZ048-509.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ633-635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday
     for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB/NB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...AJZ/HET