399
FXUS61 KAKQ 041125
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
625 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions persist through Friday. Mild today, with a warm,
breezy day expected Wednesday ahead of another dry cold frontal
passage Wednesday night. Briefly cooler temperatures on
Thursday give way to milder, seasonable temperatures for late
week into the weekend. A second cold front could bring some
light rain showers late Friday evening into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Clearing skies will continue through the evening.

- A dry cold front will move across the region tonight, with
  lows dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Latest analysis reveals ~1028mb sfc high pressure centered over
the mid-South early this morning. A weak, moisture starved cold
front is dropping across the local area, and will be offshore
well before sunrise. In its wake, breezy NW winds persist this
morning ~10 kt, shifting back around to the W-SW this afternoon
and evening, as the surface high slides closer to the region.
Areas along the coast will likely see gusts of 15-20 mph, with
Eastern Shore communities seeing gusts of ~20 mph through early
afternoon. The weak cool air advection will offset the rising
thicknesses a bit today, keeping highs confined in the low to
mid 60s, under a mainly sunny sky.

High pressure will build over the local area tonight. The
resultant diminishing winds and cool/dry airmass will allow for
ideal radiational cooling conditions. Undercut NBM numbers by
about a category, with expected lows in the mid to upper 30s,
with lower 40s along the immediate coast. With temperatures
dropping just above freezing Tuesday night, there is potential
for patchy to areas of frost in a few inland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Dry weather returns through midweek.

- Frost is possible on tonight across inland areas.

- Breezy and seasonally warm on Wednesday, with highs warming
  above normal. SW winds are expected on Wednesday with gusts up
  to 25-35 mph possible.

Clipper low pressure slides quickly across the plains states
tonight into Wednesday, with that system allowing a warm front
to lift through the area Wednesday morning. Tightening pressure
gradient between the high to the south and the clipper low to
the north result in increasingly gusty SSW winds Wed afternoon.
Quasi-zonal flow aloft and a well-mixed atmosphere in the wake
of the warm front will bump temperatures above normal, into the
upper 60s to low 70s, with a few mid 70s possible, under a
mainly sunny sky.

Most notable sensible wx item of the day on Wednesday will be
the winds. Breezy SSW winds of 15-25 mph are forecast, with
gusts up to 25-35 mph across the entire area. A few gusts up to
40 mph are possible along the E VA coast and over to the MD/VA
Eastern Shore. This is just below Wind Advy Criteria, but again,
certainly the most notable sensible wx item of the day.

Another weak/moisture-starved cold front crosses the region late
Wed night, with SSW winds, turning again WNW post-frontal. The
resulting breezy conditions/well-mixed boundary layer help to
keep us much milder. Forecast lows early Thu morning mainly in
the mid- upper 40s.

Another transient surface high slides overhead post-frontal on
Thursday, with weak CAA again knocking temperatures back near or
just below climo, with forecast highs in the low to mid 60s
(upper 50s eastern shore).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Slightly above normal temperatures and generally dry weather
  continues expected Friday through the weekend.

- A few light showers are possible Friday night as a weak cold
  front moves into the region.

- Sharply colder temperatures look to be on the horizon for
  early next week.

For the late week into the weekend, high pressure slides
offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast early Friday, with a warm
front once again lifting across the region Friday afternoon into
Friday evening. Aloft, a shortwave trough drops across the mid
MS Valley into the Ohio Valley approaching Fri/Fri night, and
crosses north of the area into Sat. This front will push another
moisture-starved front through the area late Friday night into
Saturday. Mixed messages amongst deterministic models, with the
EC/CMC largely progressive and dry, or at the least showing
minimal QPF, while the GFS is slower and actually hangs the low
up in the mountains, leaving us with some showers possible as
the front crosses the FA (PoPs of 30-60%, highest piedmont and
NW of RIC), with lower PoPs toward the coast. The ensembles
(GEFS/EPS) are still showing higher probs for lower QPF, which
does fit the pattern, but does not help forecast confidence very
much at this stage.

For what it`s worth, there is a second window for precipitation
on Sunday, as another system moves through the eastern Great
Lakes/interior northeast region, dragging another front through
the local area. PoPs are lower for this system because it is
farther out and is to a degree dependent on what occurs with the
Friday night/Sat system. Either way, no sharp temperature
changes just yet for the weekend period, with temps rebounding
near or just above normal over the weekend, with highs in the
mid- upper 60s to near 70 F Fri- Sun. Behind that system,
however is a different story.

Another, stronger shortwave looks to amplify the upper pattern
substantially. A full-latitude upper-level trough develops and
builds east across the eastern half of the CONUS Monday into
the middle of next week, allowing chilly Canadian air to spill
south into the region. Most models, and hence the NBM, showing
increasing confidence that this system bring the coolest air of
the season across the local area. Expected highs in the 50s
Monday and increasing probs for morning lows at or below
freezing for most areas away from the immediate coast Mon/Tue
night of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 625 AM EST Tuesday...

Mainly clear sky across area terminals a sunrise this morning. A
dry cold front has pushed offshore and winds have diminished
largely as expected. Breezy NW winds ~7-10 kt persist through
early this afternoon before diminishing further into this
evening.

Outlook: High pressure is expected to bring VFR conditions from
Tue night into the upcoming weekend. Another dry cold front
crosses the area late Wed/Wed night, with gusty SSW winds ahead
of the front to 20-25 kt Wed afternoon. Winds turn W-NW post-
frontal and briefly diminish, before becoming breezy again on
Friday ahead of another front, which crosses the area Friday
evening into early Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all coastal waters
through late this morning/early afternoon as a surge of cooler,
drier air moved across the local waters early this morning.

- The next dry cold front will cross the area Wednesday night into
Thursday, with Small Craft Advisories likely necessary. Another
mainly dry front will impact the area Friday night into Saturday.

The latest surface analysis shows the low pressure system
associated with the cold front that moved across the local
waters is now located off the New England coast, as a deepening
low pressure sits near Maine. A secondary surge of cooler, drier
air crossed the local waters early this morning causing a few
gusts of 35-40 kt to peak across the eastern Ches. Bay and mouth
of the bay. Winds are currently NW 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt
and will continue to decline throughout the day to 15-20 kt
with gusts up to 25 kt by late morning with the SCAs expiring
late morning for the tidal rivers and early afternoon for the
bay and coastal waters. High pressure moves over the area this
evening/early Wednesday with light winds SW 5-10 kt in the bay
and 10-15 kt in the coastal waters tonight.

However, this high pressure is brief as a low pressure system moves
across the Great Lake region, dragging a dry cold front across the
local area Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Another round of
strong SCA criteria winds are expected with pre-frontal S-SW winds
shift to N-NW winds. Local wind probs for 34 kt gusts peak around 50-
70% Wednesday evening in the northern coastal waters, so will
continue to monitor the trends. A very similar setup then follows
once again for Friday and Friday night, with transient high pressure
sliding by on Friday, to be followed by another frontal passage
Saturday morning. SSW winds Friday shift to the W-NW late Fri night
and Saturday.

Seas and waves are currently 3-4 ft N/4-6 ft S in the coastal waters
and 1-3 ft in the bay. Seas will gradually subside throughout the day
to 3-4 ft for all the coastal waters with waves 1-2 ft. Behind the
next frontal passage, waves and seas will increase to 3-4 ft in the
bay and 5-8 ft N/4-6 ft S in the coastal waters late Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning. Sub-SCA waves are expected Thursday
afternoon through Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, gusty S-SW winds (15-20
mph, gusts to 25-35 mph) in the wake of a warm front and drying
fuels will bring concern for increased fire danger over the area
on Wednesday. Concern looks to be greatest over northern
portions of the area that did not receive much rainfall over the
past weekend. Have undercut NBM dewpoints by a few degrees on
Wed, yielding Min RH in the 30-35% range across most areas away
from the immediate coast. Will collaborate with day crew to
check in with fire weather officials regarding potential Fire Wx
(IFD) SPS on Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/NB
LONG TERM...MAM/NB
AVIATION...AC/MAM
MARINE...KMC
FIRE WEATHER...