190
FXUS61 KAKQ 012130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
430 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered north of the area today in the
wake of yesterday`s cold front. A low pressure system impacts
region later tonight into Tuesday, with a brief period of
freezing rain or sleet in the Piedmont possible early Tuesday
morning. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for
the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the
region Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, mostly sunny, and cool this afternoon.

- Widespread rain is expected late tonight into Tuesday.

- Rain likely starts as a brief wintry mix across far NW
  portions of the Piedmont late tonight into early Tuesday
  morning. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for far
  NW portions of the area for a light ice accumulation.

Sunny/mostly sunny and dry conditions continue this afternoon
as high pressure settles to our north. Temperatures this
afternoon range from the low to mid 40s. High temperatures today
should be around 10 degrees F below seasonal normals and remain
in the 40s. Clouds increase this evening and especially tonight
ahead of developing low pressure to our SW. Temps initially
should drop quite quickly into the upper 20s to lower 30s this
evening and early tonight, before leveling off and/or increasing
a degree or two after midnight.

A stronger system is still expected to impact the region later
tonight into Tuesday. Weak low pressure develops along the Gulf
coast later this evening into tonight ahead of an approaching
trough. Widespread precipitation quickly works into the area
after ~2-3 AM from the west and rapidly spreads eastward.
Precipitation likely starts out as a mix of sleet, snow, and
freezing rain across our NW counties before quickly turning
over to plain rain from SE to NW by sunrise. Across far
western/northwestern portions of Louisa and Fluvanna counties, a
light glaze of ice accumulation is possible (especially on
elevated/untreated surfaces) where temps will linger at or
below freezing, allowing for the freezing rain/sleet mix to hang
on longer. All wintry precip comes to an end by ~7 AM, with a
cold rain then expected. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect for Louisa and Fluvanna counties later tonight into
Tuesday AM.

Elsewhere, a beneficial steady rainfall is expected later
tonight into Tuesday. The heaviest precip is still expected to
be Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon as low pressure
approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb. PWATs
also increase to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1" for the
remainder of the area. Precip then quickly departs later
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as the low pulls away
from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a
good chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and
points E), with some potential for up to 2" in NE NC. Any
flooding threat is very low due to the progressive nature of
the system and dry antecedent conditions.

Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas,
with milder temps (50s to around 60) across far SE VA and NE NC
(where the warm sector may briefly intrude). It may struggle to
warm out of the 30s NW of Richmond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of an
  approaching (dry) cold front.

High pressure builds back into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Becoming very cold Tuesday night in the wake of the
departing system with lows dropping back into the low to mid 20s
inland and the upper 20s to lower 30s near the coast. Dry
conditions/sunny skies are forecast for Wednesday. Remaining
seasonably cool with high temperatures in the 40s and overnight lows
again in the 20s (low 30s closer to the coast).

Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of a (dry) cold
front which is forecast to cross the area Thursday afternoon. Highs
will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another surge of very cold
air filters into the area in the wake of the front, with lows
dropping back into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly upper
teens NW) Thursday night/Friday AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of
  the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially of
  the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the
  specific details at this range.

Another complex system may impact the area Friday into Saturday.
There remains significant run-to-run variability across the model
guidance, ranging from little to no precip to impactful wintry wx. A
more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of the area, would
lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the coast. The current
model consensus...including the NBM...shows a messy wintry mix for
portions of the area Friday into Saturday night. This could entail a
mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain before changing over to
plain rain. Given the wide spread in model/ensemble solutions,
confidence still remains low in regards to the evolution of this
system/temperatures. It should be noted that latest trends have been
towards a more suppressed system with the latest GFS/GEFS keeping
the majority of the moisture south of the area. The ECMWF/EPS bring
some wintry weather to the area, but less than previous runs. The
NBM has trended down with its PoPs as a result of these changes.

Continue to follow the forecast for the latest updates. Precip then
potentially lingers into the first half of Saturday. Dry wx is
favored later Saturday and especially by next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions at all sites to start off the forecast period. Mid-
high clouds increase this afternoon and especially tonight
ahead of a low pressure system. Rain moves in after 06z Tuesday
from SW to NE and flight conditions are expected to quickly
degrade to MVFR and then IFR by ~12z Tue. Widespread rain/IFR
conditions are expected Tuesday morning through the remainder of
the period. Winds continue to trend down this afternoon and
evening and turn to the E/NE.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Tuesday night through Thursday.
Another system may approach by Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 430 PM EST Monday...

- Low pressure brings hazardous marine conditions Tuesday afternoon
into early Wednesday. Solid Small Craft Advisories are expected
across all waters.

-Another round of Solid SCA are likely Thursday night into Friday
Morning behind a strong cold front.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a 1028mb high pressure centered
over the north Mid-Atlantic region. Winds have lowered this
afternoon but remain out of the NNE between 5 to 10 kt with gusts
upwards of 15 kt. Seas have lowered as well and are between 1 to 2
ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean. SCA have been able
to expire. Throughout tonight a low pressure system is expected to
develop along the stalled cold front just off the coast.  As this
low tracks along the east coast winds will begin to shift out of the
east but remain below SCA criteria through most of tonight and early
Tuesday morning. Winds will be between 10 to 15 kt and seas will
remain between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the
ocean. By sunrise tomorrow winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with
gusts upwards of 25 kt across the ocean. SCA have been issued for
all coastal waters starting at 6am. While across the bay and rivers
winds will remain just shy of SCA criteria Tuesday Morning. By
Tuesday afternoon the low is expected to strengthen bringing high-end
SCA conditions across all waters with brief Gale conditions
primarily across the northern bay zone. Winds will increase out of
the NE behind the low to 20 to 25 kt with gusts upwards of 30kt. SCA
will continue to remain in effect across the ocean but will go into
effect across the bay, rivers, and sound. Local wind probs for Gale
conditions have dropped quite a bit. Therefore, the Gale watch has
been able to be dropped across the majority of the bay and all of
the coastal waters. A GAle watch continues to remain in effect for
the northern bay zone as there could be a brief period of 25kt gusts
however, confidence in these 35 kt gusts are low at this time. Seas
build to 5-7ft and waves in the Ches. Bay build to 3-5ft. High
pressure returns Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night, before sliding
offshore Thursday. Another cold front is expected to move across the
coast Thursday night, which will bring the potential for SCA
conditions. Another low pressure system potentially impacts the
region later this week but confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for
     VAZ048-509.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ631-632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ633-635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to noon EST Wednesday
     for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ/HET