397
FXUS61 KAKQ 021320
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
820 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area today gradually moves off the Mid-
Atlantic coast this evening into tonight. A weak coastal low
develops off the Southeast coast this evening before moving
northeast offshore Monday. This will likely bring light to
moderate rain across southeastern portions of the area tonight
into early Monday. Dry conditions return Monday night through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 820 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Rain spreads north across the area tonight.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure overhead with calm
winds and mostly clear skies. Temperatures have warmed into the
upper 30s and low 40s so the Frost Advisory has been cancelled.

High pressure remains over the area today before moving off the Mid-
Atlantic coast by tonight. Meanwhile, a cutoff low moves from
the MS Valley into the Southeast today into tonight. This helps
form a weak surface low off the Southeast coast tonight. Cloud
cover gradually increases through the day today with mostly
sunny skies early, becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon.
Mostly cloudy skies arrive by this evening with light rain
beginning to move into far S portions of the FA. Rain spreads N
overnight with PoPs increasing to 60-85% across SE VA/NE NC.
While most rain should be light, moderate rain is possible
across SE VA/NE NC with rainfall totals ranging from a few
hundredths of an inch across the NW half of the FA to 0.25-0.5"
across far SE VA/NE NC. Locally higher totals are possible up to
~1". Otherwise, highs today are expected to range from the mid-
upper 60s with lows tonight in the mid 40s NW to mid- upper 50s
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Light rain lingers across mainly eastern portions of the area early
  Monday.

- Dry weather returns late Monday into Tuesday.

Aloft, a cutoff low continues to move ESE off the Southeast coast on
Mon. At the surface, a weak surface low moves NE off the coast Mon.
Light rain will likely be ongoing across E portions of the FA Mon
morning. Rain tapers off from W to E through the day with rain
ending by early-mid afternoon. Additional rainfall on Mon is
expected to be generally light, ranging from a few hundredths of an
inch for most and 0.1-0.2" across far SE VA/NE NC. Clouds gradually
clear from W to E Mon afternoon into Mon evening with clear skies
expected by Mon night. Dry weather continues through Tue with mostly
sunny skies. Highs range from the lower 60s for most Mon (mid 60s
across far SE VA/NE NC) and low-mid 60s Tue. Lows range from the
upper 30s to lower 40s inland and upper 40s to lower 50s along the
coast Mon and Tue nights with Tue the cooler of the two nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Slightly above normal temperatures and generally dry weather
  continues through much of the week.

Aloft, zonal to weak ridging is expected across the local area from
mid to late week with a trough approaching Fri night into Sat. At
the surface, high pressure dominates the local weather pattern with
generally dry weather continuing through the week. Milder
weather is expected on Wed with highs in the upper 60s to near
70F expected. A dry cold front moves across the area late Wed
night with a bit cooler temps Thu (highs in the lower 60s NE to
mid 60s SW). Milder weather returns Fri and Sat with highs in
the upper 60s Fri and upper 60s to lower 70s Sat. Cannot rule
out a brief shower Fri night across the northern half of the FA
as a weak cold front moves through, but confidence is low
(15-25% PoPs).

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Sunday...

Patchy fog at ECG is expected to dissipate over the next couple
of hours. Otherwise, mostly clear skies early become partly
cloudy this afternoon with increasing cloud cover late this
afternoon. Cloud cover increases tonight as a weak coastal low
develops SE of the local area. Additionally, light rain
gradually spreads north across the region this evening into
tonight with rain likely at PHF/ORF/ECG late tonight. As such,
have added mention of rain to all of the terminals tonight.
Additionally, CIGs gradually lower to MVFR by ~5-7z Mon across
the SE terminals, dropping to IFR at ORF/ECG and potentially PHF
by ~8-9z Mon. MVFR CIGs are possible at RIC/SBY late tonight
into early Mon morning as well. Otherwise, light winds early
this morning become E 5-10 kt this afternoon, becoming NE
tonight.

Outlook: A weak coastal low likely tracks offshore tonight into
Mon, bringing some light to occasionally moderate rain and
MVFR/IFR CIGs to the area. The highest chance is across SE VA/NE
NC. Rain tapers off from W to E Mon with CIGs improving through
the day. High pressure is expected to bring VFR conditions Mon
night onward.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 140 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign boating conditions continue through Sunday evening.

- Low pressure develops off the Carolina coast late today and
  tonight through Tuesday morning, bringing another round of
  SCAs across the local waters Monday through Tuesday evening.

Latest analysis reveals ~1022mb sfc high pressure in place over
the local waters. To the south, a weak coastal trough lingers
offshore of the coastal Carolinas, as weak low pressure drops
across the mid-south early this morning. Locally, winds are
W-SW ~5-10kt. Waves 1 ft or less, Seas are 1-2 ft early this
morning.

Mainly benign marine conditions across the region today, as the
surface high slides offshore through early evening. Winds veer
around to the NNE as this happens, and also in response to
developing coastal low pressure just south of the local waters
along the coastal front, near KCHS. This weak low lifts NE
across Hatteras late tonight into Monday morning, before
scooting NE off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday night into Tuesday
morning. The surface pressure gradient briefly tightens late
this evening, and will bring potential for a brief window of SCA
winds back into the lower bay just before sunrise early Monday
morning. this should be rather short-lived, and wind Probs have
backed off a bit, now showing less than a 40% prob of NE winds
of 18 kt or greater over the lower Bay and lower James River
through midday on Monday. Will cap winds just below SCA
thresholds for right now in the bay, but we will also have to
watch the secondary push of SCA-level NW winds that follows
behind the departing system late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. SCA Probs are AOA 60% for most of the marine area late
Mon night and Tue morning with a weak shot of CAA.

For Seas, SE wind waves also increase Monday, in response to the
developing low offshore. Euro Wave guidance is a bit more
aggressive than the WaveWatch but each model, and hence the NBM
build seas to 4-6 ft Monday, before noon south of Cape Charles,
then after noon into Monday night/Tuesday farther north. Seas
then gradually subside Tue evening as winds turn offshore and
diminish. SCA for building seas are likely over the coastal
waters and perhaps the mouth of Ches Bay on Monday, with SCA
likely to follow for most zones later Mon night into Tuesday.
Conditions then improve across the waters Tuesday night and
early Wednesday, before additional SCA potential returns for Wed
night through late week, in response to a series of weak,
though mainly dry, frontal passages.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RHR/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM/RHR