157
FXUS61 KAKQ 200017
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
717 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions prevail tonight through Thursday. A low
pressure system will bring chances for rain Friday and Saturday.
High pressure builds back into the area Sunday into early next
week leading to dry conditions. Another low pressure system may
impact the area Tuesday into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cloud cover builds south across the area later this afternoon
  into tonight.

- Mainly dry, but cool and mostly cloudy Thursday.

This afternoon, a cold front has dropped south of the area and
weak low pressure (~1017 mb) is located off the Mid Atlantic
coast. Meanwhile, high pressure continues to build over New
England, wedging south into the local area. This has allowed for
a weak CAD setup to begin to take hold over the area, with low
clouds developing over northeastern portions of the area.
Widespread lower clouds are currently in place for areas roughly
north of I-64 and east of I-95 with temperatures only in the 40s
or lower 50s. For the remainder of the area, currently seeing
sunny to mostly sunny skies with temperatures ranging from the
mid 50s north to the upper 60s south.

Clouds build further S and SW later this afternoon and evening,
becoming widespread over a majority of the area tonight as the
wedge takes hold. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s
N and NW, to the mid 40s further SE. Patchy drizzle and/or
patchy fog cannot be ruled out in a few spots tonight due to
saturated lower levels.

Remaining dry on Thursday, but with high pressure lingering to
our NE, onshore flow/weak CAD continues to look probable. This
will lead to a mainly overcast day, with some clearing possible
later in the afternoon across southern and western portions of
the area. High temperatures will range from the lower 50s north
to around 60 south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer Friday, with low end rain chances.

- Chances for rain showers Friday night/Saturday, drying out
Saturday night.

High pressure moves offshore Thursday night into Friday as our next
low pressure system approaches from the west. Remaining cool/cloudy
Thursday night into the first part of Friday. A warm front likely
lifts north over the area Friday morning into Friday afternoon,
bringing at least a chance for rain, with the highest PoPs (~40%)
focused across NW portions of the area. High temperatures on Friday
will range from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s south. Higher
rain chances are expected Friday night through at least the first
half of Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west and
crosses the area. Not expecting much QPF with this system, with
storm total amounts ranging from ~0.15" to 0.35" per the latest run
of the NBM. Probabilities for > 0.5" of QPF are only around 15 to
20% (highest across northern portions of the area). Rain chances
diminish Saturday afternoon-evening from west to east, with dry
conditions returning Saturday night. It will be a mild day on
Saturday with highs ranging from the lower 60s across northern
portions of the area, to the lower (possibly mid) 70s across
portions of interior NE NC. Finally, cannot rule out a rumble of
thunder Saturday afternoon, mainly across southern portions of the
area. Cooler Saturday night with lows dropping back into the 30s and
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather into early next week.

- Another storm system potentially approaches Tuesday into the
middle of next week.

High pressure builds across the area Sunday through Monday night,
leading to dry weather and temperatures near to a little above
normal. No appreciable chances for below freezing temperatures
through the middle of next week at least. Another system potentially
approaches Tuesday into the middle of next week, bringing the next
chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 655 PM EST Wednesday...

IFR has settled in over SBY this evening as low pressure sits
off the coast of the Eastern Shore. MVFR CIGs have been
spreading southeast and are now at PHF and ORF. Expecting the
MVFR CIGs to spread to RIC and ECG around 02-03z as the OVC
cloud deck pivots into the area. IFR at SBY should lift to MVFR
around 01-02z. Degraded conditions stick around through the rest
of the night, then expect to see improvement from E to W early
tomorrow morning. Staying mostly cloudy through the day, but
VFR. N start out gusty near the coast to start the period, then
light winds are forecast through the rest of the 00z period.

Outlook: The next chance for light rain arrives Friday into
Saturday with the next system, which could lead to additional
flight restrictions. At this time, Sunday looks dry and VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 715 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A brief northerly surge brings Small Craft Conditions to the
  Chesapeake Bay, Atlantic coastal waters, and the Currituck
  Sound tonight.

- SCA conditions possible in the wake of another cold front Saturday.

Weak low pressure continues to slowly push offshore of the Mid-
Atlantic coast this evening. Winds this evening were 15-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt over most of the area. A few gusts up to
around 30 kt continue to be possible across the northern coastal
waters early tonight. Waves were 2-3 ft with seas of 3-5 ft.

The area of low pressure appears closer than originally modeled.
As such, recent model guidance has trended towards a longer
duration of elevated winds tonight with winds now lingering
across the lower bay, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters
(mainly the southern coastal waters) potentially until 3-4 AM
Thu. As such, have extended the SCAs until 1 AM for the lower
bay, Currituck Sound, and the VA and MD coastal waters.
Additionally, seas have already increased to 3-5 ft across the
coastal waters with the new run of the NBM showing seas
lingering much longer, especially across the southern coastal
waters. As such, have extended SCAs for the NC coastal waters
until 6 AM Thu to account for the elevated seas.

Thereafter, generally benign conditions are expected to persist
from late tonight through the end of the week. Waves will
average 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft (3-4 ft seas linger across the
southern coastal waters into Thu afternoon). High pressure
translates offshore on Friday ahead of the next front. A period
of SCA conditions is possible on Saturday behind the cold front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ632>634-
     650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RHR/RMM