383
FXUS61 KAKQ 152358
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
658 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold temperatures continue through tonight. A noticeable
moderating trend begins on Tuesday, with relatively milder
temperatures expected from Wednesday through Friday. A cold
front brings a good chance for showers to the area Thursday
night into early Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Another very cold night tonight, though it won`t be quite as
  cold as it was this morning. Winds will continue to be light
  through the night.

Surface high pressure is nearly over the area this afternoon
with mostly sunny skies, temperatures near 30F, and light winds
(though it`s still a bit gusty at the coast). Afternoon highs
will top out in the low to mid 30s. Expect another very cold
night despite a light SW wind. However, it won`t quite be as
cold as it was this morning with forecast lows in the upper
teens-lower 20s across much of the area. No cold weather
headlines will be needed as winds will be light enough to keep
apparent temps no lower than ~15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry through midweek with highs slowly moderating towards the
  50s and low 60s through Thursday.

- Widespread showers are expected Thursday night into Friday morning,
  with a few tenths of an inch of rain expected across much of
  the area.

- Cooler, breezy, and dry on Friday but certainly not as cold as
  today.

Dry weather continues through the mid week period. High pressure
will get suppressed to the S/SE on Tue/Wed as the flow aloft
gradually shifts to the SW. The sfc high then expands and pushes
well offshore on Thursday. Meanwhile, strong low pressure at the sfc
and aloft tracks well to our north late Thursday-Friday AM, dragging
another cold front through the area. Deep layered S-SW flow will
allow for a decent amount of moisture return in advance of the front
late Thu/Thu night, with PWs briefly increasing to 1-1.3" Thursday
night. Showers are possible as early as Thursday aftn/evening, but
the best chance for widespread showers is Thursday night-Friday AM
along and just ahead of the front. It still appears that much of the
area will see 0.2-0.4" of rain from this system based on the latest
model/ensemble guidance. Will see temps moderate through the week
starting with highs in the 40s on Tues, 50s on Wed, and 50s to low
60s on Thurs. Tues night lows will be in the mid 20s-low 30s, with
lows a few degrees warmer for Wed night. Dry, cooler and breezy on
Friday behind the front with highs in the upper 40s-mid 50s (though
highs could occur during the AM with temps falling a few degrees
during the aftn).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Seasonable temps continue on Sat, then potentially mild on Sunday
  ahead of another cold front.

Mostly dry and seasonable through the weekend and early next week as
the flow aloft flattens out. A bit chillier on Saturday with highs
in the mid 40s to around 50F. Briefly milder wx is possible on
Sunday in advance of another cold front (which will only bring a
slight chc of showers). Temps drop back down to near seasonal
averages on Monday behind that front. No big storm systems are on
the horizon for at least the next week or so.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions with clear skies outside of high clouds will
prevail for the 18z/15 TAF period as high pressure remains
nearby. Winds have diminished considerably, but occasional gusts
to 15-20 kt are possible near the coast through 20z. Winds
become SW at ~5 kt this evening-tonight and the light SW winds
will continue on Tuesday.

VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday. The next chance
of sub-VFR conditions is Thursday night-Friday AM due to showers
ahead of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 658 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect tonight for the Bay for
  an overnight wind surge.

- Another potent cold front crosses the waters, with another period
  of elevated winds and seas expected.

High pressure is quickly building into the region this afternoon
from the W, yielding diminishing winds and dry/mostly clear weather.
Latest observations depict wind speeds of 10-15 kt, highest across
the northern waters where there is still a residual pressure
gradient. Seas have also fallen given the decreasing winds, with
seas of generally 2-4 ft being measured acros the coastal
waters. A weak disturbance and sfc trough slide through later
tonight, with some hi-res guidance showing winds reaching 15 to
20 kt as winds shift to the SW. However, in-house wind probs
are on the lower side (highest prob is ~60% in the waters north
of Windmill Points). While SW flow is not typically a favorable
direction for wind surges, the airmass across the forecast area
is very cold and dry which may allow for better mixing, so have
decided to put a SCA out for the Bay from 03-12Z. This wind
increase will be brief, with winds again turning light for the
remainder of Tuesday. Another similar increase in SW winds is
possible early Wednesday morning ahead of a dry cold front
passage, but this is also looking primarily sub-SCA especially
since the airmass will be slightly milder.

A stronger cold front approaches the waters Thursday as high
pressure anchors well offshore. S-SW winds become gusty to 25-30 kt
Thursday night into Friday morning ahead of the front. While some
guidance suggests some low-end Gale potential, now-chilly water
temperatures will likely prevent efficient mixing of higher winds
aloft to the water surface. The current model consensus pushes the
front through around sunrise Friday morning, with a wind shift to
the WNW expected post-frontal Friday afternoon. Strong SCA to low-
end Gale conditions are expected post-frontal, particularly by
Friday evening as cold advection maximizes. Seas will also increase
to 5-7 ft by Friday morning, with 3-4 ft waves in the Chesapeake
Bay. The highest probs for low-end Gales are currently confined to
the northern coastal waters. Primarily sub-SCA from later Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...AC/ERI
LONG TERM...AC/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...SW/NB