565
FXUS61 KAKQ 031913
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
313 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pushes offshore today bringing dry and pleasant
conditions. A cold front approaches from the west later tomorrow into
Friday, bringing a chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms. A stronger cold front crosses the area late
Saturday into Sunday. High pressure builds north of the area
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure remains in control through the rest of the day
bringing pleasant weather.

- A cold front approaches tomorrow bring a chance of showers and
possible thunderstorms across the west.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a large trough over much of the US
withe the main axis being oriented along the Appalachians mountains.
The strongest flow aloft remains far to the west over portions of
the far Midwest. At the surface, high pressure remains over the area
bringing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures as of 2pm
are in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and lower to middle 70s
along the coastline. Later this afternoon and early evening the high
pressure will slide off the coast. This will allow for warm air to
advect back into the area. Low temperatures for tonight will not be
as cool as the previous night. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

For tomorrow, stronger flow aloft will round the trough as it
continue to strengthen. While at the surface, a low pressure will be
centered and strengthening just north of Great Lakes region. The
cold front associated with this system will continue to make its way
out of the Midwest and slow down along the Appalachians by tomorrow
afternoon bringing a chance of showers and storms across west of I-
95. Ahead of the approaching cold front temperatures will climb back
into the middle to upper 80s. With the high pressure off the coast
it will also fetch in additional moisture ahead of the front. Dews
are expected to rise into the lower 60s. As previously stated there
is a chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Some of
the isolated showers and storms could pose a risk of damaging wind
given the strong low-level lapse rates. However, some limiting
factors are instability and shear. The latest HREF shows SBCAPE
values ~500 J/kg and bulk shear ~25kt. The SPC has highlighted
a Marginal risk of severe weather west of I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- The warming trend continues on Friday with dry conditions expected.

- Warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday with highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday ahead
of a much stronger cold front.

The upper level trough will continue to remain over the eastern half
of the US with the strongest flow aloft on Friday. The cold front
from will approach the area but will dissolve before making it to
the CWA. This will allow for temperatures to warm with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Dry weather conditions are expected as the
main forcing will dissolve. Friday night temperatures will remain
mild with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. By Saturday, a strong
low pressure system will move NE out of the Midwest and Great Lakes
region and across NE Canada. A strong cold front attached with this
system will move across the area bringing an additional chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Ahead of the front temperatures will rise
into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Given a day to recharge dew points
will be able to rise into the middle to upper 60s. Given strong
diurnal heating and better moisture modest instability will build
into place across the area. The main limiting factor in place is
shear. The better shear and flow aloft will be much further north.
However, latest models are showing bulk shear to be between 25 to 30
kt. Given these factors in place some of the showers and storms
could pose the risk of a strong to severe wind gust. By Saturday
evening the cold front will have pushed through the area and
temperatures will lower into the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:


- Cooler weather returns by Sunday into early next week.

- Best chance for the extended is across the SE.

The latest 12z ensemble guidance looks to be in decent agreement
with one another for the extended. By Sunday there is a strong
signal for a decent trough to move over the eastern US. While at the
surface high pressure will move out of NW Canada and move just north
of the area. This high pressure will help bring cooler temperatures
across the area and through much of the extended forecast. The cold
front will have moved across the area and stall just off the coast.
Before moving off the coast Sunday some showers are possible across
the SE. Highs for Sunday will be in the middle to upper 70s.
Temperatures through the extended will remain in the middle 70s. By
Monday the high pressure should be north of the area keeping most of
the area dry through the extended. However, there is still a decent
signal from the ensembles of a some precipitation cross the SE
portion of the CWA as moisture is being transported along the
stalled boundary off the coast. The chances of precipitation
across the SE continues through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions continue to prevail across all terminals this
afternoon. Satellite imagery shows mostly clear to partly clear
skies. Some low level cumulus have developed across SBY and ORF
but continue to remain scattered. Winds have begun to increase
out of the NW between 5 to 10 kt. Later this evening winds will
become light and variable and skies will clear. VFR conditions
should prevail throughout tonight.

Outlook: VFR/dry through early Thursday afternoon. There is a
chc for isolated showers/tstms Thu evening-Thu night (highest
PoPs just NW of RIC/SBY). Dry/VFR on Friday, with a chance of
isolated to scattered aftn/evening tstms at all terminals on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A period of elevated southerly winds is likely late Thursday
  afternoon into the overnight across the Chesapeake Bay and
  northern coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
  expected over the Bay and possible over the lower James and
  northern Atlantic coastal waters.

- A High Risk for rip currents continues across the southern
  beaches through this evening, with a Moderate Risk for all
  area beaches tomorrow.

The latest weather analysis shows weakening ~1014mb sfc high
pressure centered just NNW of the area. To the northwest, ~996mb
sfc low pressure remains over SE Ontario, with the associated
sfc cold front draped across the upper Great Lakes. Light
onshore NE flow at 5-10 kt turns around to the S/SE late tonight
into Thursday morning, as the pressure gradient slowly tightens
ahead of the approaching cold front. That front moves through
the local waters Thursday afternoon and evening, with increasing
winds across the Ches. Bay and the northern coastal waters
post- frontal. Winds will likely reach 15-20 kt over the bay and
~20 kt for the coastal waters. The current local wind probs
show a 60-90% chance for sustained 18kt winds in the bay, with
only a 20-30% chance for 25 kt winds over the Atlantic coastal
waters Thursday evening. A Small Craft has been issued for the
Chesapeake Bay for tomorrow afternoon through around sunrise
Friday morning. A Small Craft may ultimately be needed for the
lower James River after midnight Thu night/early Friday, but has
been deferred and capped at 15-17 kt (gusts to 20 kt) for now.
SCA for a brief southerly surge and 3-5 ft seas may ultimately
be needed for the northern coastal zones, but again put off for
now due to the marginal and brief nature of the surge.

A second, stronger cold front crosses the local waters this
weekend, which could bring additional SCA conditions mainly
Sunday into Monday, as the front remains offshore and winds
switch around to the NNE with the pressure gradient remaining
compressed between cool high pressure building over the region
and deepening low pressure along the front offshore. Seas 2-3
ft build to 3-4 ft late Sunday into the middle of next week,
with some 5 ft possible with building E-SE wind wave.

A High Risk for rip currents remains in effect for the southern
beaches through this evening. A Moderate Risk for all beaches
on Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the Bay side of
the lower MD Eastern Shore due to increasing tidal anomalies
due to building S winds this evening. Water levels consistent
with nuisance to near minor coastal flood thresholds are
possible in the upper Rappahannock and upper Bay this evening,
with near minor flooding forecast at Bishops Head, MD.

Tidal anomalies increase a bit more as S winds increase
further, reaching 1-1.5 feet above normal by the Thursday
evening high tide cycle. Some nuisance to minor flooding will be
possible Friday morning, again mainly in the upper Bay. The
highest high tide looks to be Thursday evening, with minor to
near moderate flood thresholds possible at Bishops Head.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/HET
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...AJB/HET
LONG TERM...AJB/HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AC/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...