279
FXUS61 KAKQ 110138
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
838 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses into the area tonight, with cooler
temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Uncertainty still remains
regarding the potential for additional light wintry
precipitation, associated with multiple clipper systems late
this week and again at the end of the weekend. A very cold start
to next week will give way to relatively milder temperatures
for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 825 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Clearing skies tonight as cooler/drier air filters in behind a
  cold front.

- Cooler and dry weather conditions for tomorrow.

A cold front is crossing the forecast area this evening. While
most areas are dry (and should remain dry), cannot rule out a
brief sprinkle over the next few hours, particularly in the
Piedmont through the I-95 corridor. PoPs are less than 20% with
little to no QPF expected. Skies are expected to clear tonight
as drier air filters into the area behind the front. Winds will
also remain slightly elevated, shifting to the W/WNW behind the
front by the early morning. Overnight lows will be chilly, but
not as cold as the past few nights, and in the upper 20s to
lower 30s inland and mid 30s near the coast.

The cold front will be offshore Thursday, with high pressure
building in from the west. Breezy conditions will persist
through the early part of the day with gusts between 20 to 25
mph across the area with some 30 mph gusts possible across the
MD Eastern Shore, where the pressure gradient is stronger.
Skies will remain sunny/mostly sunny with the dry weather
persisting from high pressure. Temperatures will be cooler with
highs only reaching the low to middle 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A weak clipper system is possible Friday.

- Dry and Slightly Warmer Saturday.

There continues to remain some uncertainty with the possible clipper
system on Friday. Models continue to show a weak shortwave and low
pressure system moving out of the northern Plains into our area
producing light snow across the far west. Models continue to show
disagreement with this incoming system. Some of the deterministic
short range models and the GEFS show the snow showers across the far
NW. While the ECMWF continues to hint on a southerly trend. With
this uncertainty decided to nudge pops up slightly across the south
but still remains between 20 to 35%. Now in terms in how much snow
could fall still remains uncertain. This is again due to the
disagreement from the models and depends on where a weak FGEN band
sets up. The Ecmwf probs for 1" of snow continue to lower and are now
between 20 to 30% while the GEFS has increased and are between 40 to
50%. At this time, have decided to keep snow totals confined and
less than .5" inch across the far NW. Trends in the model data will
continue to be monitored.

After the clipper system Friday strong NW flow aloft will persist
over the area with a high pressure moving in place at the surface.
Dry weather conditions will remain in place with slightly warmer
temperatures. Highs will be in the mid 40s across the north and low
50s across the south. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 20s
to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...

- Another Arctic cold front crosses into the region on Sunday,
  ushering in a much colder airmass Sunday night and Monday. Some
  light precipitation is possible with the Arctic frontal
  passage.

- Temperatures quickly moderate from Tuesday through the middle
  of next week.

Recent 12z models are continuing to bring a strong cold front across
the area as a arctic high pressure moves out of Canada late Sunday.
Models have continued to increase on precipitation chances with the
cold front that could lead some wintry precipitation especially
across the NE portion of the CWA. However, there still remains little
uncertainty due to timing. With the models increasing with
precipitations pops have also increased and are between 25 to 40%.
By Sunday night a strong high pressure will move into place ushering
in Arctic temperatures. Lows Monday AM are expected to plummet into
middle to upper teens and low 20s along the coast, with chilly highs
Monday in the 30s. However, there is improving consensus that cold
high pressure quickly slides offshore Tue-Wed, portending a gradual
warmup for much of the mid to late week period next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 635 PM EST Wednesday...

A cold front crosses the area this evening, although VFR is
expected for the entire period. Mid-high clouds persist through
tonight, before mainly clear/sunny skies return for Thursday.
The only area of concern through about 06z is southwesterly
low-level wind shear as a low-level jet remains over the area.
SW ~10 kt winds overnight shift to the W/WNW at 10-15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt later Thursday morning and afternoon.

Outlook: An approaching disturbance could trigger some light
rain or snow Friday into Friday night (best chance for snow
across the far N), with intermittent flight restrictions
possible. Another cold front could bring light precip on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 837 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect for most of the marine area as a cold
  front crosses the coast.

- Another strong cold front is expected to cross the coast
  later Sunday.

990mb low pressure is centered just east Lake Ontario with a cold
front stretching across the Mid-Atlantic region. Winds are SW 15-25
kts with gusts up to 30 kts across the coastal waters, with winds of
15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts in the Bay. Seas range from 3-5 ft
S to 3-6 ft N, with 1-3 ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Winds will shift
to the west and diminish as the cold front moves through, and then
become NW later tonight into early Thursday as CAA increases, but
wind speeds should remain generally sub-gale. A few gusts to 34 kts
are possible, mainly in the northern waters early tomorrow morning,
but the duration of the stronger gusts will be short. SCAs run
through 4 PM tomorrow for the northern waters mainly for
lingering seas. SCAs for the Currituck Sound continue through 4
AM Thu, the lower James through 7 AM Thu, the southern coastal
waters through 10 AM Thu, the lower Bay through 1PM Thu, and the
middle Bay through 4 PM Thu.

High pressure briefly returns Thursday aftn into Thursday
night. A weakening low pressure system and cold front cross the
region Friday night. High pressure then settles over the
Southeast Saturday. Sub- SCA conditions are expected to prevail
Thursday aftn through at least Saturday. A strong cold front
crosses the coast later Sunday into Sunday night with high
pressure returning Monday. At least SCA conditions are expected
based on the 10/12z guidance, with quite high probabilities for
gale conditions over the coastal waters, and lesser, but still
notable gale gust probs for the Ches. Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630-631-
     650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...HET/SW
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ/NB