508
FXUS61 KAKQ 020812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
312 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system impacts the Mid-Atlantic today, with a
brief period of freezing rain possible in the Piedmont very
early this morning. High pressure returns with dry and cool
weather for the middle of the week. Another system potentially
impacts the region Friday into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread rain is expected today.

- Rain likely starts as a brief period of freezing rain across
  the NW Piedmont very early this morning. A Winter Weather
  Advisory remains in effect for far NW portions of the area for
  a light ice accumulation.

GOES water vapor channels depict a longwave trough from the
Great Lakes to the central/southern Plains early this morning,
with a northern shortwave trough lifting NE over the Ohio
Valley, and a southern shortwave trough lifting NE over the Deep
South. At the surface, 1025mb high pressure is centered over
the Gulf of Maine, with a surface ridge axis extending SE into
the VA/NC Piedmont. Surface low pressure is centered in vicinity
of the northern Gulf coast associated with the southern wave,
and another low is centered over KY/TN associated with the
northern wave. Thickening and lowering cloud cover is occurring
locally early this morning ahead of approaching low pressure.
Temperatures vary from the upper 20s/lower 30s NE, to the lower
40s SE, and lower/mid 30s for most of the area.

Deep moisture increases rapidly this morning with PW values
increasing to over 200% of normal, and even reaching 250-275% of
normal per ensemble consensus toward the coast by 15z/10AM. The
low- level flow will gradually become E to SE this morning, and
this combined with deep moisture and thick cloud cover should
result in gradually rising temperatures. The one area of
concern is the NW Piedmont where surface temperatures could
settle around 31-32F as the low-level profile moistens. This
could result in a few hours of light freezing rain, mainly from
09z/4AM through 12z/7AM. Any ice accumulation should be on the
order of a few hundredths of an inch and mainly on elevated
surface. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for western
Louisa and Fluvanna Counties through 11AM, but the icing threat
will likely end prior to 11AM. Rain spreads across the entire
area this morning and could become locally heavy given strong
forcing for ascent and anomalous PW. QPF ranges from 0.5-1.0"
along the W of the I-95 corridor, and 1.0-1.5" E of the I-95
corridor to the coast. Rain quickly ends from W-E this
afternoon. However, low clouds will initially be slow to clear.
High temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 40s over the
Piedmont due to clouds and precipitation, with highs reaching
the 50s along the coast due to a period of SE to S flow ahead of
the low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of an
  approaching (dry) cold front.

High pressure quickly builds in from the NW tonight and strong
pressure rises in the wake of the departing low and ahead of the
high should act to scour out the low clouds. A NW wind could
become breezy for a few hours along the coast this evening with
gusts to 20-25 mph. Otherwise, becoming mostly clear and chilly
tonight with lows in the lower to mid 20 W to mid 30s E. High
pressure settles over the area Wednesday. Mostly sunny with high
temperatures only in the mid 40s.

High pressure remains in vicinity of the coast Wednesday night.
Mostly clear with low temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
High pressure slides farther offshore Thursday resulting in
moderating temperatures. Forecast highs range from the upper 40s
N to the lower 50s S with increasing clouds. Another (dry) cold
front drops through the area later Thursday afternoon and
evening with high pressure building to the N Thursday night. Low
temperatures once again drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s,
with lower 20s possible across the N if enough clearing occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of
  the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially
  snow transitioning to a wintry mix and rain. However,
  confidence is very low in the specific details at this range.

Forecast uncertainty increases Friday. The cold front settles S
of the local area with high pressure and a relatively cold
airmass to the N. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough pushes into the
Mid- South in zonal flow aloft resulting in a developing wave of
low pressure along the front. The operational 00z/02 ECMWF
along the with EPS and EC AI deterministic and ens. all depict a
scenario locally that could feature snow transitioning to a
wintry mix then rain (primarily all rain SE) Friday into Friday
night. However, the 00z/02 GFS and GEFS remain more suppressed
and warmer featuring mainly rain across central/southern VA and
NE NC. The NBM generally captures a similar scenario to the
EC/EPS.

The EC/EPS and GFS/GEFS show PW values falling below normal
Saturday through early next week, so generally dry conditions
are favored despite the NBM trying to hold on to low PoPs and a
menagerie of p- types Saturday into Saturday night. Below normal
temperatures are favored this weekend into early next week,
with a reinforcing (mainly dry) cold front Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EST Tuesday...

High pressure is centered over the region as of 06z. VFR with
increasing high clouds and a calm to very light wind. High
pressure quickly moves offshore this morning as deepening low
pressure tracks across the region. Conditions rapidly
deteriorate around and after 12z with cigs falling to IFR/LIFR
along with reduced vsby in rain and mist. Rain is expected to
end rather quickly from W-E between about 18-21z. However, cigs
will be slow to lift with IFR stratus potentially lingering to
22-01z. After that, a relatively quick improvement to VFR is
expected as drier air arrives from the NW. The wind will
generally be E-SE through ~15z, and then gradually shift to NW
through 18z as low pressure moves offshore. A period of LLWS is
possible around 14-17z, especially at ECG, and potentially ORF
and PHF as well. A NW wind may gust up to ~20kt this evening as
drier air arrives from the NW.

VFR conditions prevail Wednesday through Thursday as high
pressure builds across the region. Another low pressure system
will bring the potential for degraded flight conditions Friday
into Friday night with rain and a wintry mix possible. Drier
conditions return by Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters
  today into Wednesday as a developing coastal low creates gusty
  winds.

- Another round of SCAs are likely later Thursday into Friday
  behind a cold front.

Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure sliding off
to our northeast with a warm front off of the Southeast coast.
Additionally, a weaker upper level trough is moving into the
Ohio River Valley, setting its eyes on our region. All of this
will come into play for our weather today, but for this morning,
east- southeasterly winds are quite benign with seas around
3-4ft. The trough to our west will move eastward throughout the
day bringing a shield of precipitation with it, resulting in a
decent rainfall for most of the day. Additionally, a low
pressure system is expected to develop along the Southeast coast
this morning and track northward along our waters as it
strengthens. This will result in east/southeasterly winds
increasing to 12-15kt in the Bay and 16- 19kt in the coastal
waters by mid to late morning. This will be followed by a stark
wind shift out of the northwest as the low moves off towards the
New England coastline. Winds are forecast to strengthen to
22-25kt across the Bay and ocean (17-20kt for the rivers and
Sound) with gusts up to 30-32kt this evening into the overnight
hours. A few gale-force gusts to 34kt can`t be ruled out late
this evening/early overnight; however, local wind probabilities
for gale gusts continue to remain very low. Thus, higher-end
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters today
through the first part of Wednesday. Waves in the Bay will
increase to 2-3ft today, then 3-4ft during the period of
strongest winds overnight. Seas will build to 4-6ft throughout
the day, with the occasional 7 foot wave out closer to 20nm.

High pressure then returns to the area on Wednesday allowing
winds to subside and become generally calm before a cold front
passes through later Thursday. This may create another round of
SCAs for portions of the waters into early Friday. Seas will
briefly build to 4-5ft, with waves in the Bay returning to the
3-4ft level. Another low looks to develop offshore on Saturday,
though guidance currently keeps local winds below advisory
thresholds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     VAZ048-509.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ633-635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB/AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JKP