705
FXUS61 KAKQ 300820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rainfall is expected today along and ahead of a cold
front. High pressure settles near the eastern Great Lakes
Monday in the wake of the cold front. A low pressure system
impacts region Tuesday, with a brief period of freezing rain or
sleet possible in the Piedmont late Monday night. High pressure
returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week.
Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly light rain is expected along an advancing cold front
  today. Cool temperatures prevail across the Piedmont with
  milder temperatures in eastern VA and NE NC.

- Cold and dry air pushes back into the area tonight behind the
  cold front.

High pressure is gradually shifting offshore in advance of a cold
front this morning. An associated occluding low pressure system is
located near the western tip of Lake Michigan, producing widespread
winter wx up that way. Closer to our area, light overrunning
moisture is located about 50-100 miles W of our Piedmont counties,
associated with a quasi-warm front feature. Temperatures range
through the 30s, although there are a few upper 20 readings on the
MD Eastern Shore. Widespread cloud cover continues to stream over
the area (though there have been occasional breaks) and, combined
with mid-level WAA, don`t expect temps to drop much more. In fact,
temps across the W could increase a degree or two as we approach
sunrise. Still expect the vast majority of precip to be plain rain
this morning, despite the cold airmass holding on. Cannot rule out a
very brief period of light freezing rain across western Louisa and
Fluvanna counties from 7-9 AM, but temps will already be very
marginal and ~31-32 F at the coolest. Therefore, even if this does
occur, no impacts are expected.

A large spread in high temperatures is expected today, ranging from
only the low to mid 40s across the W and NW to the upper 50s and
lower 60s in SE VA and NE NC. Otherwise, the cold front will push
through the area later this afternoon and evening, with light to
locally moderate rain accompanying the front. CAMs show quite sparse
precip coverage across central VA and PoPs are only in the chance
category (30-50%) this afternoon here. As the front approaches the
Eastern Shore and coast later this afternoon and evening, there is
decent consensus that rain coverage should increase a bit and likely
PoPs remain in the forecast. The front pushes south into NC early
tonight with 60-70% PoPs through midnight. Winds turn to the NW and
then N late tonight, ushering colder and drier air back into the
region. Overnight lows range from the mid-upper 20s well inland to
30s near the coast, warmest in coastal SE VA and NE NC.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool Monday.

- Widespread rain is expected Tuesday.

- Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain or sleet
  across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday
  morning.

Mostly sunny and dry Monday as high pressure settles N of the area
and the flow aloft becomes (quasi) zonal. Temperatures will be
chilly areawide and in the mid-upper 40s. Cold initially Monday
evening into the first part of the night with temps dropping in the
upper 20s to lower 30s. However, cloud cover will increase
substantially after midnight as another system approaches the area,
likely allowing temps to level off and rise some.

A stronger system, with widespread precip, remains on track to
impact the region Tuesday. Weak low pressure is initially progged to
develop along the Gulf coast ahead of an approaching trough Monday
night. Widespread precip then moves in Tuesday morning as favorable
ascent downstream of the trough overspreads the region and a strong
upper-level jet noses in from the W. The broad low will also be
approaching the Southeast coast during this time. The heaviest
precip is expected Tuesday afternoon as the low approaches the NC
OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb. Model output shows a rather
robust southerly 850 mb jet, allowing PWATs to increase to ~1.5"
across SE VA and NE NC and ~1" elsewhere. Rain then quickly departs
Tuesday evening and especially Tuesday night as the low pulls away
from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a good
chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and points
E), with some potential for up to 2" in far eastern and southeast VA
and NE NC. Most areas should see 0.5" at a minimum. Overall, the
progressive nature of this system, along with limited to no
instability, should prevent rain totals from being much higher than
1-2". Combined with dry antecedent conditions, the flooding threat
is very low and WPC has removed the Marginal excessive rain outlook
for the entire area.

The main forecast uncertainty remains any potential for winter
precip issues at onset Tuesday morning. Similar to previous
forecasts, any winter wx would be confined to western and especially
northwestern portions of the forecast area where cold air holds on
the longest. Additionally, mid-level WAA will compromise the depth
of the cold air, with light freezing rain or sleet the most likely p-
type (should any winter precip occur) as the sfc high retreats to
our NE. Snow remains quite unlikely at this time but cannot be
completely ruled out across the far N if the initial cold air is a
bit more robust than modeled and/or precip moves in earlier. Should
note that soundings depict a rather dry layer at and just above the
sfc at the time the models show precip onset, so accumulations of
whatever falls will not be substantial in any way. Probabilities for
a light freezing rain accumulation (0.01") remain quite steady and
in the 20-25% range well W and NW of Richmond per the NBM. Any
winter precip threat ends by noon or so Tuesday. Regarding temps,
highs stay in the 40s for most areas, with milder temps across far
SE VA and NE NC (where the warm sector may briefly intrude).
Becoming very cold Tuesday night with strong cold advection in the
wake of the low. Forecast lows are in the lower-mid 20s inland and
and upper 20s-lower 30s nearer to the coast. With breezy conditions
through the night behind the associated front, wind chills may drop
into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool weather returns Wednesday, followed by slightly
  warmer conditions Thursday ahead of a dry cold front.

- Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of
  the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially
  of the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the
  specific details at this range.

Winds quickly diminish Wednesday as a large area of high pressure
settles overhead. Highs temperatures should only warm into the 40s,
but under a sunny sky. Temperatures then moderate into the 50s ahead
of another cold front Thursday. The moisture-starved front crosses
area Thursday night with little to no precip chances for the area
through early Friday. Overnight lows generally range through 20s
with lower 30s near the coast.

Another complex system is expected to impact the area Friday. The
initial evolution could be quite similar to our Tuesday system, but
there remains significant run-to-run variability across the model
guidance. A more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of the
area, could lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the coast.
On the other hand, a low tracking W/NW of the area (as depicted on
the 30/00z deterministic ECMWF) would lead to lower wintry precip
chances, probably confined again to the far NW. The current model
consensus...including the NBM...shows a messy wintry mix for
portions of the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning. This
could entail a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Given
the aforementioned uncertainties, will refrain from mentioning
freezing rain at this point and carry rain as the predominant p-type
(with some snow also mixing in across the NW half of our CWA).
Regardless, an anomalously cold airmass will be over the region
Friday with highs only warming into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Precip potentially lingers into the first half of Saturday. Beyond
Saturday, there is even lower confidence in the forecast with a
blended approach favoring low PoPs and below average temps.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon ahead of a
cold front. Cloud bases are initially high (15,000+ ft) early
this morning, before gradually lowering today. Rain chances also
increase by this afternoon, with a line of light rain
accompanying a front as it advances through the forecast area
through the evening and overnight hours. The rain will tend be
quite scattered for inland locations (including RIC) this
afternoon, so will only mention via a PROB30 group. Light to
locally moderate rain advances toward the SE terminals this
evening, where there is higher confidence to carry prevailing -RA
in the TAFs. Not expecting widespread flight restrictions as
the front moves through, but a 4-6 hr period of MVFR CIGs is
possible this afternoon/evening. Surface winds will remain light
this morning, becoming S-SW and increasing to 5-10 kts later
this morning and afternoon ahead of the front. The wind shifts
to the W by 00z and then NW by 06z.

Outlook: Winds become N behind the front late tonight and
Monday morning, and will be elevated through midday along the
coast. The front stalls just south of the local area on Monday,
with another system to lift NNE along the front Tue-Wed,
bringing a more widespread rain to the region. Flight
restrictions are likely as early as late Monday night,
continuing through much of Tue/Tue night. VFR conditions return
Wed/Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Sunday night and
  Monday behind a cold front.

- A developing coastal low pressure system brings hazardous
  marine conditions Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.
  Solid SCAs are likely, with low-end gales possible.

1034mb high pressure is centered offshore of the New
England coast early this morning. Meanwhile, low pressure is
centered well to the NW over Lake Michigan, with a cold front
trailing through the Mississippi Valley. The wind is generally 5-
10kt out of the SSE early this morning and locally 10-15kt across
the northern coastal waters and middle Ches. Bay. Seas are 1-2ft,
with waves ~1ft in the Ches. Bay. Low pressure tracks NE across the
Great Lakes today and through the St. Lawrence Valley tonight. This
will drag the associated cold front across the Mid-Atlantic coast
tonight. The wind will primarily be S to SW 10-15kt today ahead of
the cold front, and locally 15-20kt for the northern coastal waters.
Seas build to 2-3ft with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The wind
shifts to NW behind the cold front tonight and then N by Monday
morning. 950mb wind reaches 25-30kt in the post-frontal CAA surge,
with local wind probs showing 80-100% for gusts >=25kt over the
coastal waters and 60-80% over the Ches. Bay. SCAs remain in effect
for the Ches. Bay and lower James, and have been added for the
coastal waters and Currituck Sound. Seas build to 4-6ft (highest out
near 20nm) late tonight into Monday morning, with 3-4ft waves in the
Ches. Bay late tonight/early Monday morning.

High pressure quickly builds into the region Monday aftn and
evening, before sliding offshore later Monday night. The wind
diminishes to NE 5-10kt later Monday aftn and becomes E Monday night.
Strengthening low pressure tracks across the area Tuesday morning,
and continues to deepen as it moves offshore Tuesday aftn into
Tuesday night with an associated cold front sweeping across the
region. The strongest wind locally will be associated with the CAA
surge Tuesday night as the wind shifts to NW. Local wind probs for
>= 34kt gusts are 60-80% for the coastal waters (highest out near
20nm) and 40-60% for the nearshore waters and Ches. Bay. It is still
early for a Gale Watch, but if the current trends continue we will
eventually need a Gale Watch, and least for the coastal waters N of
the VA/NC border and Ches. Bay. Seas build to 5-7ft and waves in the
Ches. Bay build to 3-4ft.

High pressure returns Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night, before
sliding offshore Thursday. Another cold front is expected to move
across the coast Thursday night, with the potential for another low
pressure system later this week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Monday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ633-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW/NB
MARINE...AJZ