934
FXUS61 KAKQ 151945
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
345 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonable weather prevails today, ahead of a dry cold
front passing through the region tonight. Cool and dry
conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure
settles across the region. A warming trend is expected by the
weekend as the high slides offshore. The next chance for rain is
late Sunday into early Monday with the next cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Clouds continue clearing out of the SE, mostly sunny skies for the
  majority of the area.

The latest wx analysis shows low pressure well offshore and strong
surface high pressure (~1030mb) over the Great Lakes region. The
high pressure is pushing a dry cold front towards the region, now
over the New England area. The NW flow aloft has ushered in drier
air, helping push out the cloud deck that was over the eastern half
of the CWA this morning. Now, clouds only linger in far SE VA/NE NC.
These clouds will continue moving out of the area with clear skies
expected tonight. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 70s
where there`s clear skies and upper 60s below the cloud deck. Once
the clouds dissipate in the SE, temps will likely increase a few
degrees this afternoon.

Late tonight into early Thursday, the dry cold front will be pushed
into the area as the upper level trough and associated shortwave
digs across the New England area. Although there is no precipitation
expected with the front, temperatures will be noticeably cooler
tonight with lows in the mid 40s for the northern half of the CWA to
lower 50s in SE VA/NE NC, as gusty N winds off the waters keep
temperatures warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining dry, but turning cooler Thursday and Friday behind a
  cold front.

- At least patchy frost will be possible late Thursday night/Fri
  morning W of I-95 with lows as cold as the mid 30s.

Behind the aforementioned dry cold front, temperatures will be
noticeably cooler Thursday and Friday. A very dry airmass will cause
deep mixing between layers of the atmosphere. This will cause lower
dewpoints in the lower to mid 30s and min RH levels in the lower to
mid 30% Thursday afternoon in the piedmont.  Although, not too
concerned about fire weather concerns as most of the area will only
see RH values in the mid to upper 30s. Breezy winds from the mixing
are expected with gusts up to 15 mph inland and 15-20 mph near the
coast.

Along with lower dewpoints, temperatures will be cooler with
highs on Thursday in the mid 60s for most (lower 60s across the
Eastern Shore). Recent models continue to depict high pressure
moving over the area by Friday, with the high pressure over the
Appalachia mountains Thursday night and Friday morning. With this
set up, decoupling and radiational cooling is more likely over the
piedmont area, with patchy frost possible as temperatures reach as
low as the mid 30s. The chance for a potential freeze is quite low
at this point, but a Frost Advisory will likely be needed with the
next forecast cycle. Farther inland along and east of the I-95
corridor, temperatures will reach down to the upper 30s. Along the
coast, warmer water temperatures will only allow the lows to reach
the mid 40s.

Friday, as the high pressure moves more overheard, high temperatures
will be cool like Thursday in the lower to mid 60s. Dry and sunny
skies will prevail for the day. Clouds will begin building back into
the area Friday night, which will prevent overnight lows to be as
cool as Thursday night. Expect lows in the lower 40s (warmer along
the coast).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures this weekend with near normal temperatures
  likely early next week.

- The next chance of rain is late Sunday into early Monday.

Good model consensus that the upper level ridge amplifies and shifts
east to the coast Saturday, and off the coast by Sunday morning.
Saturday will be mostly sunny with highs in the lower 70s inland,
and slightly cooler near the coast.  A large upper trough moves in
from the W late Sunday, with strong low pressure ejecting NNE across
the Great Lakes. A cold front will approach from the W on Sunday,
and advance across the area later Sun night. The models continue to
trend a little bit slower, with the timing of any precipitation now
late Sunday into Monday morning. Increasing southerly slow will help
increase temperatures Sunday to the mid 70s. With the upper low,
there is uncertainty to how much moisture reaches the area, as it
takes on a negatively tilted approach, which may cause the precip to
split over the area (see latest 12z GFS run). Although the GFS run
is pessimistic about the rainfall amounts here, the EPS is more
favorable showing a 60-80% chance of 0.1 inches/24 hr and 20% chance
of 0.5 inches/24 hours. Have maintained chance PoPs for now. Behind
the trough, temperatures will be near normal and dry.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mostly clear conditions outside of the MVFR cloud deck over SE VA/NE
NC this afternoon. The clouds continue to move farther SE away from
the area with now only ORF and ECG remaining under MVFR CIGs. The
cloud deck will move out of the area this afternoon by 20z at the
latest in the far southeast (ORF will likely clear within the next
hour). VFR conditions are now seen elsewhere, with mostly sunny
skies and will prevail into Thursday evening. Elevated winds
continue as low pressure lingers offshore at ~10 kt with gusts up to
20 kt. A cold front will move through the region late tonight and
early Thursday, which will then increase the winds more during the
day Thursday to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected through the end of the
week. Lighter winds will return Friday and Saturday. An approaching
cold front will bring a chance for showers late Sunday into early
Monday with possible flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Northerly winds increase again tonight and remain elevated through
the first half of Friday as cooler and drier air surges south over
the waters.

- High pressure builds over the waters later Friday into Saturday
before moving offshore ahead of the next cold front.

This afternoon, ~1030 mb high pressure is centered over the northern
Great Lakes. Winds have diminished from earlier and are generally
out of the N 10 to 20 knots over the Chesapeake Bay and ocean and N
5 to 15 knots over the rivers. Seas are running around 4 to 7 ft
(highest south) and 2 to 3 ft in the Bay (3 to 4 ft at the
mouth).

A dry cold front drops south over the waters later this evening into
tonight bringing another surge of cooler/drier air. As a result,
northerly winds increase around/shortly after sunrise this evening
to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Winds remain elevated
through tomorrow and the first half of Friday as additional surges
of cool/dry air filter over the waters. While there is a brief
potential for a few gale-force gusts tomorrow evening/Friday AM,
wind probs have continued to diminish, now showing ~15 to 20%
chances mainly focused well offshore. Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect for the Chesapeake Bay/coastal waters and have been
extended through the day Friday. SCAs were also issued for the
rivers and Currituck Sound starting later this evening. SCAs
will likely need to be extended through at least Friday
night/early Saturday for the coastal waters due to lingering 5+
ft seas.

High pressure finally builds over the area later Friday through
Saturday with much improved marine conditions. Flow become southerly
by late Saturday as high pressure translates offshore ahead of the
next cold front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Friday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...KMC/LKB
SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB
LONG TERM...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...AJB/RHR