330
FXUS61 KAKQ 081909
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
309 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses the area today, bringing scattered
showers. Much cooler temperatures arrive tonight into tomorrow
behind the cold front. A coastal low develops off the Southeast
coast this weekend, resulting in the potential for heavy rain
and breezy conditions for eastern portions of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 305 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered rain showers are expected into the late afternoon
  with clearing skies late.

- A much cooler airmass builds into the region tonight.

A cold front has cut through the majority of the forecast area based
on latest sfc analysis, leaving only the southeastern counties ahead
of it. An UL trough axis is swinging into the Mid-Atlantic,
supporting the front from aloft. The initial line of showers has
pushed into the Albemarle Sound/offshore, but have started to see
additional scattered showers develop near the front itself (mostly
south of the James River). Could certainly see a few rumbles of
thunder with these. Cloud cover has started scattering out over NW
portions of the FA as the cool, dry high pressure builds in behind
the front. Elsewhere, skies remain mostly cloudy. Clearing and
drying from NW to SE will continue into this evening as the front
pushes offshore. Temps are generally in the mid to upper 70s, but SW
counties have risen into the lower 80s and the MD Eastern Shore is
in the upper 60s-low 70s. N/NW winds behind the front are gusting 20-
25mph, which will continue into this evening.

High pressure continues to fill in overnight once that cold front is
offshore with NW flow setting up aloft. Skies will finish clearing
out by morning. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your
bias), winds will be too elevated (~10-15mph) overnight to set up
good radiational cooling and really drop the temperatures.
Still going to be on the chilly side, though, with lows in the
mid to upper 40s in the piedmont/inland counties and ranging
through the 50s near the water and in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Much cooler and dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday.

- Patchy frost is possible across portions of Louisa and
  Fluvanna counties Friday morning as temperatures fall back
  into the 30s.

A lot cooler and drier on Thurs and Fri with that strong sfc high
pressure settling into New England and NW flow continuing aloft.
Highs on both days look to be in the mid 60s for much of the area
and upper 60s-around 70 along and S of US-460. Mostly sunny skies
forecast for tomorrow with perhaps some scattered cloud cover in the
SE. Cloud cover increases from the E through the day Fri as an
inverted trough (i.e. the beginnings of the weekend coastal low)
forms along the coast. Main story during this short term time
period is the potential for the season`s first Frost Advisory in
the NW counties (Fluvanna and Louisa). With the cooler airmass
in place, lighter winds, and clear skies, temps could drop into
the mid to upper 30s in the NW. Had to blend in NBM25th for
temps Thurs night to bring temps down closer to the what the
statistical guidance shows. Other inland areas away from the NW
will see lows in the low to mid 40s, while eastern counties
(except the MD Eastern Shore) see lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- There is increasing confidence that a strong coastal system will
impact the region this weekend into early next week. Heavy rain,
gusty winds, and significant coastal/marine impacts are all
possible.

The 12z model guidance continues to come into better agreement with
a strong coastal system impacting the region this weekend and likely
lingering into Monday. Heavy rain will be possible with this system,
with WPC already highlighting eastern portions of our area
(including all of Hampton Roads) in a Day 4 Marginal ERO and a Day 5
Slight ERO. Both the 12z GEFS and EPS already show 1 to 3" of QPF
across the eastern half of the area Saturday night into Monday with
90th percentiles showing upwards of 4-5". Current NBM PoPs are
likely still too low, only ~50-60% along the coast, Saturday
night into early Monday, but these will continue to trend up as
model confidence increases. Could potentially dry out going into
Tues, but uncertainty is high that far out with regards to
where the low will go and when. In addition to the heavy rain
threat, it will also be windy with wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph
already in the forecast along the immediate coast (highest
Sunday-Sunday night). Finally, significant coastal and marine
impacts are possible, see the Marine and Tides and Coastal
Flooding sections of the discussion below for more details.
Temps will be pretty similar each day during this period with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday...

A cold front is cutting through the forecast area today,
bringing scattered showers and sporadically lower CIGs along and
ahead of it. Seeing/have already seen improving conditions at
RIC and SBY now that the front has passed through. SE terminals
could still see some showers and MVFR CIGs over the next couple
of hours as the front pushes offshore. Dry air fills in behind
the front and cloud cover scatters out from NW to SE. Northerly
winds gust 20-25kt this afternoon and evening, diminishing to
10-15kt overnight. Expecting another round of gustiness out of
the NE tomorrow.

Outlook: Another period of sub-VFR CIGs, elevated winds, and
moderate to heavy rain are likely as we head into this weekend
as low pressure develops offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters through
  at least Thursday as a cold front crosses the waters this
  afternoon.

- Low pressure develops south of the area this weekend. While
  uncertainty remains, dangerous marine conditions likely
  develop later Saturday into early next week with Gale to Storm
  conditions likely.

High pressure is retreating further offshore this morning as a cold
front approaches the waters from the W. Southerly winds range from
10-15 kt in the southern Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters to 15-20
kt in the northern waters. Wind gusts have generally been between 15
and 25 kt, highest N. Small Craft Advisories have been expanded to
include the entire Chesapeake Bay (except at the mouth) for
these southerly winds this morning. Offshore, winds should gust
to 20-25 kt over the northern coastal waters for a decent period
this morning, but seas have stayed and are forecast to remain
in the 3-4 ft range. Therefore, continue to hold off on
headlines for the first part of today here.

The cold front is forecast to drop southward through the waters
this afternoon, bringing a wind shift to the N, along with a
quick increase in winds. Strong Small Craft Advisory winds
continue to be the most likely scenario with a continued
potential for a brief period of gale-force gusts during the
10PM-2AM period this evening/early tonight when post-frontal
pressure rises and cold/dry advection will be maximized. Local
wind probs are below 10% for frequent gale-force gusts, so will
refrain from any Gale Warnings. In the wake of the cold front, a
compressed pressure gradient will prevail, especially for the
southern half of the area with anomalously strong high pressure
to our north and lower pressures offshore of the Carolinas.
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect and/or have been
extended through most of Thursday, with extensions through
Saturday in the coastal waters S of Cape Charles. Otherwise, a
reprieve from the wind is possible for the middle/upper bay and
adjacent rivers from late Thursday into Saturday. Seas are
forecast to build to 5-6 ft by tonight and then 6-8 ft by
Thursday, with locally higher seas S.

Forecast uncertainty continues for this weekend. However, there
remains agreement across nearly all deterministic and ensemble
model guidance that low pressure develops along the stalled
front/coastal trough Saturday, drifting north or northeast near
or just offshore of our coastline Sunday into Monday. The track
and strength of the low show considerable variation among and
within the global deterministic and ensemble solutions,
respectively. The latest GFS and ECMWF show the low lifting
north and strengthening on Sunday and doing some kind of
pirouette near the coast as the low occludes on Monday. Either
of these solutions would result in a prolonged period of
significant marine impacts. The latest 00z/08 Canadian has also
jumped on board. In summary, while uncertainty remains, there
appears to a bit more clarity with this forecast update. Have
continued the trend from the previous forecast and increased
winds a few more kt later Saturday into Monday. This now brings
Storm conditions to the VA and MD coastal waters with gusts to
50 kt and strong Gale conditions elsewhere, including the
Chesapeake Bay, with gusts to 40-45 kt. While it is too early
for headlines, these may need to be considered over the coming
days. Additionally, seas are forecast to build to at least
10-15+ ft with waves 6-9 ft near the mouth of the Chesapeake.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 310 AM EDT Wednesday...

No coastal flooding is expected through tonight. Given the high
astronomical tides and moderately strong NE winds, minor
flooding is possible in areas adjacent to the lower Ches Bay and
tidal York/James on Thursday and Friday. Additional coastal
flooding is possible this weekend, depending on the track and
strength of coastal low pressure.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ635.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ636-637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AJB/AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RHR/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...