


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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934 FXUS61 KAKQ 151945 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 345 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonable weather prevails today, ahead of a dry cold front passing through the region tonight. Cool and dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure settles across the region. A warming trend is expected by the weekend as the high slides offshore. The next chance for rain is late Sunday into early Monday with the next cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Clouds continue clearing out of the SE, mostly sunny skies for the majority of the area. The latest wx analysis shows low pressure well offshore and strong surface high pressure (~1030mb) over the Great Lakes region. The high pressure is pushing a dry cold front towards the region, now over the New England area. The NW flow aloft has ushered in drier air, helping push out the cloud deck that was over the eastern half of the CWA this morning. Now, clouds only linger in far SE VA/NE NC. These clouds will continue moving out of the area with clear skies expected tonight. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 70s where there`s clear skies and upper 60s below the cloud deck. Once the clouds dissipate in the SE, temps will likely increase a few degrees this afternoon. Late tonight into early Thursday, the dry cold front will be pushed into the area as the upper level trough and associated shortwave digs across the New England area. Although there is no precipitation expected with the front, temperatures will be noticeably cooler tonight with lows in the mid 40s for the northern half of the CWA to lower 50s in SE VA/NE NC, as gusty N winds off the waters keep temperatures warmer. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Remaining dry, but turning cooler Thursday and Friday behind a cold front. - At least patchy frost will be possible late Thursday night/Fri morning W of I-95 with lows as cold as the mid 30s. Behind the aforementioned dry cold front, temperatures will be noticeably cooler Thursday and Friday. A very dry airmass will cause deep mixing between layers of the atmosphere. This will cause lower dewpoints in the lower to mid 30s and min RH levels in the lower to mid 30% Thursday afternoon in the piedmont. Although, not too concerned about fire weather concerns as most of the area will only see RH values in the mid to upper 30s. Breezy winds from the mixing are expected with gusts up to 15 mph inland and 15-20 mph near the coast. Along with lower dewpoints, temperatures will be cooler with highs on Thursday in the mid 60s for most (lower 60s across the Eastern Shore). Recent models continue to depict high pressure moving over the area by Friday, with the high pressure over the Appalachia mountains Thursday night and Friday morning. With this set up, decoupling and radiational cooling is more likely over the piedmont area, with patchy frost possible as temperatures reach as low as the mid 30s. The chance for a potential freeze is quite low at this point, but a Frost Advisory will likely be needed with the next forecast cycle. Farther inland along and east of the I-95 corridor, temperatures will reach down to the upper 30s. Along the coast, warmer water temperatures will only allow the lows to reach the mid 40s. Friday, as the high pressure moves more overheard, high temperatures will be cool like Thursday in the lower to mid 60s. Dry and sunny skies will prevail for the day. Clouds will begin building back into the area Friday night, which will prevent overnight lows to be as cool as Thursday night. Expect lows in the lower 40s (warmer along the coast). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Warmer temperatures this weekend with near normal temperatures likely early next week. - The next chance of rain is late Sunday into early Monday. Good model consensus that the upper level ridge amplifies and shifts east to the coast Saturday, and off the coast by Sunday morning. Saturday will be mostly sunny with highs in the lower 70s inland, and slightly cooler near the coast. A large upper trough moves in from the W late Sunday, with strong low pressure ejecting NNE across the Great Lakes. A cold front will approach from the W on Sunday, and advance across the area later Sun night. The models continue to trend a little bit slower, with the timing of any precipitation now late Sunday into Monday morning. Increasing southerly slow will help increase temperatures Sunday to the mid 70s. With the upper low, there is uncertainty to how much moisture reaches the area, as it takes on a negatively tilted approach, which may cause the precip to split over the area (see latest 12z GFS run). Although the GFS run is pessimistic about the rainfall amounts here, the EPS is more favorable showing a 60-80% chance of 0.1 inches/24 hr and 20% chance of 0.5 inches/24 hours. Have maintained chance PoPs for now. Behind the trough, temperatures will be near normal and dry. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 140 PM EDT Wednesday... Mostly clear conditions outside of the MVFR cloud deck over SE VA/NE NC this afternoon. The clouds continue to move farther SE away from the area with now only ORF and ECG remaining under MVFR CIGs. The cloud deck will move out of the area this afternoon by 20z at the latest in the far southeast (ORF will likely clear within the next hour). VFR conditions are now seen elsewhere, with mostly sunny skies and will prevail into Thursday evening. Elevated winds continue as low pressure lingers offshore at ~10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. A cold front will move through the region late tonight and early Thursday, which will then increase the winds more during the day Thursday to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected through the end of the week. Lighter winds will return Friday and Saturday. An approaching cold front will bring a chance for showers late Sunday into early Monday with possible flight restrictions. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Northerly winds increase again tonight and remain elevated through the first half of Friday as cooler and drier air surges south over the waters. - High pressure builds over the waters later Friday into Saturday before moving offshore ahead of the next cold front. This afternoon, ~1030 mb high pressure is centered over the northern Great Lakes. Winds have diminished from earlier and are generally out of the N 10 to 20 knots over the Chesapeake Bay and ocean and N 5 to 15 knots over the rivers. Seas are running around 4 to 7 ft (highest south) and 2 to 3 ft in the Bay (3 to 4 ft at the mouth). A dry cold front drops south over the waters later this evening into tonight bringing another surge of cooler/drier air. As a result, northerly winds increase around/shortly after sunrise this evening to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Winds remain elevated through tomorrow and the first half of Friday as additional surges of cool/dry air filter over the waters. While there is a brief potential for a few gale-force gusts tomorrow evening/Friday AM, wind probs have continued to diminish, now showing ~15 to 20% chances mainly focused well offshore. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay/coastal waters and have been extended through the day Friday. SCAs were also issued for the rivers and Currituck Sound starting later this evening. SCAs will likely need to be extended through at least Friday night/early Saturday for the coastal waters due to lingering 5+ ft seas. High pressure finally builds over the area later Friday through Saturday with much improved marine conditions. Flow become southerly by late Saturday as high pressure translates offshore ahead of the next cold front. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ634-650-652- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...KMC/LKB SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB LONG TERM...KMC/LKB AVIATION...KMC/LKB MARINE...AJB/RHR