430
FXUS61 KAKQ 180842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
342 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore this afternoon ahead of a low
pressure system, which will bring a quick chance of rain tonight
through early Wednesday morning. Primarily dry Wednesday and
Thursday as high pressure returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure moves in late today and tonight, bringing rain
  chances for the local area, highest amounts NE.

The latest WX analysis indicates a potent upper trough over
Atlantic Canada, with an upstream ridge into the western Great
Lakes. At this surface, ~1023mb sfc high pressure is centered
over the local area bringing cold and clear conditions early
this morning. Temperatures are mostly in the upper 20s to lower
30s, and should drop off a few more degrees through sunrise. at
the immediate coast in SE VA, light onshore flow is keeping
readings in the 40s.

High pressure slides offshore later this morning, as low pressure
moves east from the mid MS Valley to the lower OH Valley this
aftn, lifting a warm front towards the region. Mainly sunny
this morning, with increasing high clouds late in the morning,
and thickening/gradually lowering clouds this aftn (especially
northern portion of the FA). The general setup has not changed
much this cycle, with rain that will attempt to arrive from W-E
late in the afternoon, initially having to overcome a rather
dry airmass as forecast soundings depict a rather dry sub-cloud
layer. Therefore, will only have PoPs over the far north prior
to 00Z. Likely to categorical PoPs spread across the north
through the evening, but taper off to low chc across central VA
with mainly dry WX over the south. The trailing upper trough
dives ESE through the local area after midnight, and shifts
offshore after 12Z Wed morning. The highest rain chances, 80%+
are primarily from Caroline Co and pts east through the northern
Neck and the MD eastern shore, though a few hrs with likely
PoPs does extend south across most of VA after midnight with the
help of the upper trough. However, QPF amounts look meager
across the southern 1/2 of the CWA, generally 0.10" or less,
while GEFS/EPS probs for 0.50" or greater are around 50% to the
N/NE of the track of the vort max across the MD eastern shore.
High temperatures today will range from the upper 50s/lower 60s
in the far south, to the lower 50s for the north, with some
upper 40s possible in the northern piedmont if thicker cloud
cover arrives earlier. Low temperatures will not be as chilly
given clouds and rain, and range from the upper 30s N to the mid
40s S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry and mild Wednesday and Thursday.

Low pressure pushes offshore Wednesday with any lingering light
showers moving offshore between 12-15Z. Weak high pressure
building in from the W will lead to dry conditions, though some
low level moisture may linger, especially over NE portions of
the FA. Becoming partly/mostly sunny central and south, and
partly- mostly cloudy NE with high temperatures ranging from the
mid 50s N to the mid- upper 60s south central VA and interior
NE NC. Partly cloudy Wednesday evening, with increasing clouds
overnight. Lows will be mild, generally in the low-mid 40s.
Partly sunny south and mostly cloudy north on Thursday with
high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s NE to the mid 60s
south central VA and interior NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Passing disturbances bring chances of light rain late Thursday
  night through Saturday.

- Mainly dry Sunday-Monday with temperatures near to slightly
  above normal.

Weakening low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes to the
northeast Thursday night into Friday, with the trailing (but
weakening) cold front dropping into the area Friday night into
Saturday. This will produce occasional rain chances Thu night
through Sat (highest chc Fri night/Sat). Spread in the model
guidance has continued to improve, and overall shows weak high
pressure and dry conditions by Sunday and Monday. Mild with
highs Fri-Sat in the upper 50s to lower 60s NE to the upper 60s
to lower-mid 70s far south. Forecast lows are in the mid 40s to
mid 50s Friday and Sat morning, then cooler late in the weekend
into next week. The latest blended guidance depicts slightly
cooler, but still near to above average temperatures Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR/dry conditions across area terminals persist tonight with a
calm to light generally NW wind, as high pressure builds across
the region. Continued VFR today. High pressure slides offshore
in the morning with a light E to SE wind developing. High clouds
increase and thicken this aftn and evening as low pressure
approaches from the W.

Light rain becomes likely from RIC to SBY tonight, with a
chance of scattered showers farther south as the aforementioned
weak low pressure system tracks across the area. Degraded flight
conditions are expected st SBY, with brief sub- VFR conditions
possible at RIC, and the latest trends indicating predominant
VFR conditions persist elsewhere. Primarily VFR then for
Wednesday through Thursday as weak high pressure rebuilds over
the region. Another chance for light rain arrives Friday into
Saturday, as low pressure tracks N of the area Friday, followed
by the associated cold front dropping into the region Saturday.
The best chc for light rain is at the northern terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through
  Friday.

- Winds become elevated and northerly behind a cold front late Friday
  night into Saturday.

High pressure has settled across the Mid-Atlantic region and winds
have started to diminish in response. A few higher gusts are being
observed in the northern coastal waters, but sustained winds have
dropped below SCA criteria so all remaining SCAs have been allowed
to expire. Seas are currently 2-3 ft, with waves generally measuring
between 1-2 ft. The aforementioned high will gradually move eastward
today, ejecting into the western North Atlantic by this afternoon.
The gradient will remain very weak across the local waters, and as
the high slides overhead, winds will become light and variable. Weak
onshore flow is possible later this afternoon due to local effects
of daytime heating. Benign marine conditions will continue through
the remainder of the week. While winds will briefly increase again
by mid-week, SCA conditions are not expected at this time. A cold
front is progged to move across the area Friday night into Saturday,
which would could bring a period of SCA conditions to the local
waters, though CAA looks to be on the weaker side, so confidence in
this is not high. Have kept the wind forecast below SCA through the
weekend and into early next week. Seas will remain in the 2-3 ft
range through the end of the week, while waves will be in the 1-2 ft
range. Behind the front this weekend, seas are forecast to build to
3-4 ft, with waves in the Bay building to 2-3 ft (highest at the
mouth of the Bay).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RMM/NB