935
FXUS61 KALY 300615
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
115 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system moving through the region will allow for breezy
conditions today with a mix of rain and snow. While most areas
won`t see much snow accumulation, portions of the Adirondacks
will see a light to moderate amounts. After a break on Monday,
another storm will bring a widespread accumulation snowfall to
the region for Tuesday. Temperatures will remain below normal
through the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Winter Weather Advisory for the western Adirondacks through 1
  AM Monday for 4-8" of snowfall.

Discussion:

As of 115 AM EST...A strong area of high pressure (around 1034
hpa) is located just east of the area over southeastern New
England. Meanwhile, a storm system is moving across the Midwest
and will be heading across the Great Lakes for today.

IR satellite imagery shows that widespread mid and high level
cloud cover has overspread the entire area. These clouds have
been increasing thickness over the past few hours, although they
were thin enough for temps to fall into the 20s for most of the
area earlier this evening. Although winds are currently fairly
light, they will increase out of the south to southeast for
later this morning, as the pressure gradient increases over the
area. Because of this and the clouds in place, temps have
probably already reached their lows and will either hold steady
or slowly rise through the late night hours and into the morning
on Sunday. Low-level dewpoints are fairly low with values in the
teens, so there is some dry air in place at the surface.

With isentropic lift occurred, some light precip will break out
across the region, although some of this will be lost to virga
to the dry air in place at the surface. CAMs suggest a period of
light snow will spread southwest to northeast across the region
between 4AM and 8 AM, although some of this will be very light,
especially in valley areas. Best chance of seeing a light
coating to an inch with this activity will be across northern,
western and high terrain areas. After 8 AM through about Noon,
most of the area will be fairly dry, although some upslope light
snow will be ongoing across the Adirondacks through the
morning. Temps should be starting to rise into the 30s for most
areas outside of the Adirondacks and southerly winds will be
increasing, especially in the larger north-south valleys, where
some gusts will exceed 25 mph.

For the afternoon hours, there should be another batch of light
precip that will be spreading northeast across the area from
the Poconos and northern NJ. With surface temps warmer at this
point (valley areas spiking in the low to mid 40s), most of
this will be rain showers, although high terrain areas
(especially the Adirondacks and southern VT) may still be cold
enough for precip to be light snow. Finally, one last batch of
rain showers is expected along/just ahead of the storm`s
occluded front, which will be crossing the evening hours. Behind
the front, precip will end for most areas, but some light lake
enhanced and upslope snow showers should continue for the
western Adirondacks into tonight.

Overall, most areas won`t have much accumulation, but upslope-
favored areas of the western Adirondacks will see 4 to 8 inches,
where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. This will be
a fairly limited area within the Adirondack Park, but Old Forge
should see Advisory-level amounts from this system. Behind the
initial occluded front, winds will become southwesterly, but
remain breezy for tonight. A secondary boundary should cross
close to daybreak Monday, allowing winds to become west to
northwest and temps falling into the 20s for Monday morning.

High pressure will be building into the area behind the
secondary boundary for Monday with a partly to mostly sunny sky.
Daytime temps will be chilly in the 30s (some 20s for the high
terrain). Clouds will begin returning ahead of the next system
for Monday evening with some light rain possible by late Monday
night and temps falling into the teens to low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- Southern stream low pressure system passing off the Northeast
  coast will bring a widespread accumulating snowfall to the
  region for Tuesday. Latest NBM probabilities show a 30-60%
  chance for 4+" across the forecast area, with the greatest
  probabilities across the Catskills, southern Vermont and
  Berkshires.


Discussion:

On Tuesday, our region will be impacted by a fast moving low
pressure area moving within the southern stream. This will be a
fairly progressive system, with a fairly weak and open upper
level wave aloft. Despite this, there should be fairly decent
amount of precip, as the southerly flow will allow for some Gulf
and Atlantic moisture to get pulled into the system and there
should be a decent band of precip on the northwest side of the
low pressure area, aided by a strong thermal gradient.

Even with this system just a few days away, there are marked
differences in the guidance regarding the storm track, storm
strength and axis of heaviest QPF. With a cold air mass in
place, nearly the entire forecast area will be seeing snowfall,
with just far southeastern areas having a risk for some rainfall
mixing in if a more northern storm track is realized. Have
leaned close to the NBM blend considering the differences, which
lines up well with the ensembles as well. This would bring
advisory-level snowfall to much of the region (NBM probs show
about a 30-60% chance for 4+" for most of the region). There
still is a risk for some warning-level snowfall, mainly for the
Catskills, southern VT and Berkshires, although probability from
the NBM is only about 20-30% for those areas for 8". Some
mesoscale banding could allow for warning-level totals to occur,
but exactly where this occurs is still a question that will
depend on the exact storm track. Based on collab with
neighboring offices and WPC, will wait on Winter Storm Watches
until storm track is in better focus, but aforementioned high
terrain areas would be most favored at this time. In either
case, travel looks to be impacted on Tuesday, especially the
afternoon and evening commute, as the first widespread snowfall
will lead to snow covered roadways and reduced visibility for
much of the daylight hours, with precip winding down for
southwest to northeast during the late evening hours.

Behind this storm system, below normal temps look to continue to
the rest of the week with highs in the 20s and 30s and overnight
lows in the teens (even some single digits possible by the late
week). Another round of snow showers will be possible with an
Arctic front on Thursday and another period of steadier snowfall
is also possible with another low pressure for Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z/Mon...A low pressure system will push across the TAF
sites during this TAF period. VFR conditions will start the period
at all sites with BKN-OVC skies around 10 kft. A band of snow
showers will lift northward between 09-12z/Sun, mainly impacting
KALB/KGFL and possibly KPSF with IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys. These showers
should miss KPOU. A lull in precipitation is possible between 12-
15z/Sun before another period of rain showers or a rain/snow mix
occurs until around 20z/Sun with mainly MVFR conditions.
Precipitation will then transition to isolated to scattered showers
between 20z/Sun to 02z/Mon where cigs/vsbys will likely be more
mixed MVFR/VFR with the best chances for more persistent MVFR at
KPSF. Pending upslope flow, cigs could lower to IFR at KPSF but
confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF at this time.
The system`s cold front moves through after 00z/Mon with a gradual
improvement back to VFR expected at all sites.

A light southeast or calm wind will continue for the rest of the
night then increase out of the south to southeast at 10-15 kt with a
few gusts 20-25 kt through Sunday afternoon, especially at
KALB/KPSF. Wind will then become west to southwesterly after 00z/Mon
at around 10 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt continuing at
KALB/KPSF.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ032-033.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...33