221
FXUS61 KALY 031730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1230 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions expected today as a small area of high pressure
builds in. An Arctic cold front approaching from the Great
Lakes and southeast Canada will move across our area late
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing snow showers and some
snow squalls along with gusty winds. In wake of the cold front,
a bitterly cold air mass will move in Thursday night into Friday
with dry conditions. Below normal temperatures will continue
into the weekend, with just a low chance of snow showers mainly
west of the Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Increasing potential for scattered snow squalls and gusty
  winds Thursday associated with an Arctic cold front passage.

- In wake of the Arctic front, bitterly cold temperatures will
  take hold Thursday night into Friday.

Discussion:

As of 200 AM, radar showing light snow over S. VT continuing to
shift east and will taper off over the next 1-2 hours as the
storm departs into the Canadian Maritimes. Otherwise, mostly
cloudy skies in place across the rest of the area with
temperatures in the 10s and 20s. Surface ridging extending NE
from the mid Atlantic region will result in dry conditions
today. Breaks in the clouds are likely, especially in the Hudson
Valley. Temperatures will be chilly with highs around 10
degrees below normal(upper 20s to mid 30s) for early Dec.

Clouds will increase tonight ahead of an Arctic cold front
approaching from the NW. Some snow showers will develop mainly
after midnight across the W. Adirondacks in advance and along
the Arctic front. The rest of the area looks dry through the
night with lows in the mid 10s to mid 20s.

As the Arctic front progresses SE across our area on Thu, there
is increasing potential for scattered snow squalls developing
along the front. Conditions look favorable with forecast
soundings indicating steepening low level lapse rates and deep
mixing along with ~50-80 J/Kg SBCAPE. Snow squall parameter
values are elevated through the afternoon. Temperatures start
out just above freezing(lower to mid 30s) in the Hudson Valley,
but will drop sharply along the front, so snow squalls could
result in impacts on driving conditions despite minor
accumulations of < 1" in most areas. The W. Adirondacks and W.
Mohawk Valley could get 1-3", but not enough for any headlines.
W-NW winds will also get quite gusty Thu afternoon along and
behind the front. At this time will mention peak gusts of 25-35
mph across most of the area, but could end up being higher if
deeper mixing is realized and taps into stronger winds aloft.
Temperatures should drop into the 10s to 20s prior to sunset
with the gusty winds making it feel colder.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing
  through early next week.

Discussion:

High pressure builds in from the west Thu night, although there
will still be a bit of a breeze into the evening. Once
temperatures cool considerably with the high moving overhead
later at night into early Fri morning, the winds should become
near calm. So while bitterly cold temperatures are
anticipated(especially with a fresh snow pack), the lack of
overlap with winds should preclude issuance of any Cold Weather
Advisories at this time. Will continue to monitor trends. Low
temperatures range from 0 to -5F in the higher terrain to 0 to
5F in lower elevations. This will be the first frigid air mass
of the season. Dry conditions will persist on Fri, with
temperatures "warming" into the upper 10s to mid 20s as high
pressure shifts east off the coast.

A storm system is expected to track well south of the region
across the southern mid Atlantic region Fri night. Most guidance
has snow suppressed to our south with just a 20% chance from
the NBM south of Albany. Tempertures will remain chilly, but
not as cold as Thu night.

Below normal temperatures are favored to continue over the
weekend and through early next week. A weak disturbance may
bring a few light snow showers to areas west of the Hudson
Valley on Sat. Then another Arctic cold front is expected to
move through late Sun into Sun night. So temperatures will
plunge to well below normal levels again Mon into Tue. A clipper
system may bring some snow on Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z/Thu, mainly VFR conditions expected this afternoon
into tonight, although some lingering patches of MVFR Cigs are
possible at KGFL and KPSF through around 20Z/Wed. An arctic cold
front will cross the TAF sites from NW to SE between roughly
14Z-18Z/Thu, which may be accompanied by a brief period of snow
showers and gusty winds. Have indicated PROB30 groups to account
for this possibility, with localized IFR/LIFR conditions
(especially Vsbys) possible for a brief period during this time.
Light/variable winds will trend into the south to southwest at
4-8 KT tonight, then will become southwest to west ahead of the
front and increase to 8-12 KT with gusts of 20-25 KT Thursday
morning. Winds will shift into the west/northwest and increase
to 10-15 KT with gusts of 25-35 KT expected with and behind the
frontal passage early Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...24