396
FXUS61 KALY 051810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
110 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high will depart off to the east tonight, allowing for
increasing clouds. Although temperatures will stay below normal,
they will be a little milder this weekend. A fast moving storm
system will bring some light snow to the region on Sunday
evening into Sunday night. Another round of bitter cold Arctic
air will return to the region for Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

 - Fast moving low pressure will bring a period of accumulating
   snow on Sunday evening into Sunday Night. NBM probabilities
   for seeing 1" or snow or greater are 50% or higher for the
   Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Schoharie County.

Discussion:

As of 110 PM EST...Surface high pressure (around 1027 mb) has
been sliding eastward across New England for today and it will
continue to depart offshore for tonight. Meanwhile, a surface
low pressure area is located well south of the region near the
mid Atlantic coast and it will be pushing northeast out to sea
for tonight. Although skies are fairly clear across the region
for early this afternoon, some clouds will be increasing south
to north for this evening into tonight. Although the low levels
are very dry, there will be an increase in low-level moisture as
the southerly flow off the western Atlantic moves into the area.

Although the main coastal low will be well southeast of the
area, a weak surface trough/coastal front may help to allow for
some light precip to develop for tonight for far southeastern
areas. Most of this will stay southeast of the region over the
NYC Metro/Long Island/southern New England, but parts of
Dutchess and Litchfield County may be clipped by some light
precip overnight. Forecast soundings suggest that while the
bottom portion of the sounding is saturated, ice nuclei could
be limited, as there is some dry air above 800 hpa. Some
seeder/feeder effects are possible thanks to some mid level
clouds above, so will forecast just some light snow (which is
also favored by the latest NBM probs as well), but cannot
totally ruled out some patchy freezing drizzle in this area as
well. Will monitor upstream trends, but any precip looks very
patchy and fairly light/brief, so any impact should be very
minimal. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and not as cold as
last night with lows in teens and 20s.

Mainly quiet weather is expected for Saturday into Saturday
night. Morning clouds should break for some sun, especially for
eastern areas. Temps look milder than recent days (but still
below normal) with highs into the 30s. A moisture starved
frontal boundary will be approaching from the west for late in
the day and into Saturday night. While a few light snow showers
or flurries are possible in the Adirondacks or western Mohawk
Valley, any accumulation should be just a coating to half inch.
Lows will be down into the teens and 20s once again.

Morning sun will give way to clouds once again on Sunday as the
next system approaches from the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This
will be fast moving area of low pressure that will be sliding
west to east and it looks to impact the area from late Sunday
into Sunday night. Models trends today have been slightly
further north with this storm track, which should keep most of
the precip north and west of the region. With plenty of cold air
in place, any precip will be snow, but QPF looks limited and dry
air in place may lose some precip to virga and some downsloping
will be possible in valley areas. Latest NBM suggest best chance
of seeing 1" or more is over the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley
(50-70%). The immediate Capital Region is right around 50% with
lower probs further south and east. At this point, the chance
for 2" is only 15% at Albany, with the only place at 50% or
higher over the far western Adirondacks. As a result, while some
locally slippery travel can`t be ruled out, snow amounts look
light and should be sub-advisory level, with the bulk of this
falling during the overnight hours. After daytime highs in the
30s, it will turn colder behind the departing system for late
Sunday night with lows down into the single digits and teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period will start out very cold. Cold north to
northwest flow will be in place on Monday with breezy
conditions. Temperatures will only be in the teens and 20s on
Monday, despite increasing sunshine. The high pressure area,
initially over the Midwest on Monday, will build over the
Northeast by Monday night. This should allow for decreasing
winds and very cold temps for lows, with many spots near zero
once again.

As the flow returns out of the south, it will be a little milder
on Tuesday, but still below normal, with highs still in the 20s.
Another clipper system looks to approach for late in the day,
with another round of passing snow showers and flurries for late
Tuesday into Tuesday night, mainly for northern areas.

Another storm system looks to impact the region for Wednesday
into Thursday. Models have hinted at track across the Great
Lakes, which would keep our area on the warmer side of the
system, although there is plenty of time for this to change, as
guidance has been variable recently. NBM still suggests decent
probabilities for accumulating snow on Wednesday and Thursday,
so a snow to rain or mixed precip scenario is possible as well.
Will continue to keep forecast close to the NBM and watch model
trends, but unsettled weather with some winter precip does seem
likely during the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this afternoon with high pressure in place. Favored conditions are
anticipated to persist through much of the 18z cycle, though a
gradual development and lowering of ceilings is expected later
tonight due to the passage of a nearby disturbance to the south.
MVFR ceilings are anticipated everywhere for a brief time, but the
site with the greatest potential to see some light precipitation
sneak into its terminal is KPOU. A PROB30 group has been added,
therefore, to its TAF from 09-12z when light snow is most probable.
However, there is fairly low confidence in this element of the
forecast.

Another disturbance will impact the region primarily after the end
to this 18z period, but will provide some impacts in the form of
sustaining MVFR ceilings for most through the end of the cycle.
Winds throughout the period will be light, primarily out of the
southeast, at sustained speeds below 10 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...37