427
FXUS61 KALY 221118
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
618 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
We start the day with low to medium chances for precipitation
across locations south and east of Albany as a weather system
moves through to our south. By noon, dry conditions return and
decreasing clouds are in store for the rest of today. For
Sunday, a weather system arrives from the north bringing chances
of snow showers and flurries to eastern New York and western
New England. Then dry conditions return for Monday. A gradual
warming trend for next week with chances for precipitation
returning Tuesday into Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
This morning, latest observations continues to support light rain
showers moving eastward into Ulster and Greene counties. These
showers continue eastward into Columbia, Dutchess, Berkshire,
and Litchfield counties. These rain showers continue this
morning as a low pressure system moves through to our south
bringing these low to medium (15-50%) chances for very light
precipitation amounts up to 0.05 inches. Otherwise, dry
conditions continue this morning. By noon, the weather system
heads southeast and dry conditions continue into tonight. High
temperatures today range in the 30s and 40s. Low temperatures
tonight range in the teens and 20s. Once the sun sets tonight,
temperatures fall quickly as skies are mostly clear but should
remain steady in the 20s as clouds increase for Sunday morning.

An approaching weather system from the northwest brings low to
medium chances (15-50%) for light snow showers in the western
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley beginning Sunday morning.
Snowfall amounts range from a light dusting to over 2 inches in
the highest terrain locations (and below advisory criteria of
greater than 4 inches). High resolution model guidances are
fluctuating on how far south precipitation goes. In
collaboration with neighboring offices and probabilities for
precipitation greater than 0.01 inches from latest NBM data, did
include mention of low to medium chances for snow/rain shower
activity eastward into the Capital District region, southern
Greens and Berkshires for Sunday afternoon into Monday morning
for very light accumulations. The type of precipitation is going
to greatly depend on temperatures with latest forecast model
guidances being in good agreement for either snow or rain to be
the primary type. With precipitation going to be light,
accumulations are less than 0.05 inches outside of the Mohawk
Valley and western Adirondacks where the precipitation amounts
for there range between 0.05 and 0.15 inches. For the Mohawk
Valley, temperatures could stay cold enough for snow showers
during the morning hours but as we head into Sunday afternoon
with temperatures warming above freezing, snow showers
transition over to light rain showers. Rain/snow shower activity
is supported to be scattered through the day Sunday. Beginning
Sunday night, the weather system heads northward and dry
conditions return for Monday with brief upper level ridging
overhead. Highs on Sunday and Monday range in the 30s and 40s.
Low temperatures range in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

    - Gradual warming trend into Wednesday with highs ranging
      in the upper 40s and upper 50s.

    - Chances for precipitation increase Tuesday into Wednesday
      with an unsettled weather pattern.

Discussion:

Tuesday through Wednesday: Cold overnight low temperatures into
Tuesday morning continue with lows in the 20s and low 30s. Latest
ensemble cluster analysis members are in good agreement for an upper
level trough to dig across the Great Lakes region for Tuesday into
Wednesday as the upper level ridge heads eastward Tuesday afternoon.
Latest forecast supports that Tuesday morning starts out dry, with
chances for rain showers increasing during the afternoon hours from
15 to 50%. Temperatures remain above freezing through the daytime
across eastern New York and western New England with highs in the
upper 30s and 40s for the primary precipitation type to be rain. As
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, high terrain
locations could see a mix of rain/snow as temperatures fluctuate
between 30 and 34 degrees. Otherwise, temperatures remain above
freezing for the overnight hours and gradually warm into the 40s and
50s for Wednesday as warmer air from the south fills. Chances for
light precipitation continue to range between 40-60% for Wednesday
for a dreary day in store. A cold front moves through Wednesday
night bringing a return to seasonal temperatures.

Thanksgiving through Friday: The current forecast supports low to
medium chances for lingering rain/snow shower activity through the
morning hours Thursday with drier conditions favored to return from
south to north across eastern New York and western New England
during the afternoon and evening hours. Latest ensemble model
guidances are supporting the upper level trough to move overhead
Thursday into Friday. Breezy conditions are favored for the
afternoon hours Thursday, especially in valley locations. High
temperatures range in the 30s for high terrain locations to the
upper 40s and low 50s in valley locations. The upper level trough
could contribute to lake effect snow showers across the western
Adirondacks into the Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills, with the
latest forecast supporting medium chances (30-50%) snow shower
activity for Friday. A colder airmass arrives Friday into the the
weekend, but wanted to briefly mention that ensemble forecast model
guidances are supporting the latest forecast for overnight low
temperatures to be below normal with lows in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sun, weak wave of low pressure tracking south of
the region will bring some light rain to KPOU and KPSF through
14Z-16Z/Sat. This will bring a period of MVFR Cigs/Vsbys,
though can not rule out brief IFR Cigs/Vsbys during this time.
Outside of a few sprinkles, most rain should remain south of
KALB, however brief MVFR Cigs will be possible this morning. At
KGFL, mainly VFR conditions are expected. Some lingering MVFR
Cigs at KPOU and KPSF through late morning should become VFR by
this afternoon as some clearing develops. VFR conditions are
then expected to continue through tonight.

Light/variable winds this morning will become west to northwest
and increase to 8-12 KT with some gusts of 15-20 KT possible
this afternoon, especially at KALB and KPSF. Winds will then
quickly decrease around/after sunset to less than 5 KT.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thanksgiving Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...24