241
FXUS61 KALY 021026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
626 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Our stretch of dry weather will persist through early next week as
high pressure dominates the Northeast. While fall-like temperatures
will be in place through tomorrow, above normal temperatures
return this weekend into early next week before our next chance
for widespread rain arrives during the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings for portions of eastern
  New York and western New England through early this morning as
  temperatures drop to near or slightly below freezing.

Discussion:

Grab your jacket for the morning commute today as clear skies
and weakening winds overnight supported ideal radiational
cooling resulting in a chilly and frosty start to the day with
lows in the 30s and 40s. As a ~590dm ridge positioned in the
Ohio Valley builds eastward and a 1030hPa sfc high in Ontario
shifts into New England, large scale subsidence will maintain
our dry streak with very low PWATs under 0.50" keeping dew
points in the 30s and RH values near or under 40%. Despite the
low RH values, winds stay light today as the pressure gradient
relaxes thereby mitigating concerns for fire spread. While
forecast soundings suggest boundary layer mixing extends into
the mid-levels, the air mass aloft is still quite cool with
850hPa isotherms only +2C and -1C. This combined with the cool
morning will limit how warm temperatures become today with
probabilistic guidance showing under 20% chance for highs to
reach or exceed 65 degrees for much of eastern NY and western
New England. Values increase to 40-60% in the mid-Hudson Valley.
Otherwise, sunny skies mix with cirrus clouds as upper level
moisture spills overtop the ridge.

One more cool night tonight as high pressure becomes centered
overhead supporting radiational cooling. However, as upper
level ridging flattens out and westerly flow ensues, the air
mass aloft modifies/warms a bit with the cirrus canopy also
lingering. Thus, overnight lows should not be quite as cool as
Wed night with lows more likely in the mid to upper 30s to low
40s. NBM probabilistic guidance shows 40-60% chance for lows to
drop under 35 mainly in the higher peaks of the northern
eastern Catskills, southern Greens, and Upper Hudson Valley but
not enough coverage at this time to issue any frost advisories.
Will continue to monitor trends.

High pressure persists into Friday with flat ridging aloft
supporting continued westerly flow that continues to usher in a
milder air mass aloft. As early cirrus clouds give way to
abundant sunshine, it will feel warmer with highs rising into
the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Temperatures trend 10 to 15 degrees above normal Saturday
  through Tuesday with a 50-70% chance for temperatures to
  reach or exceed 80 degrees in the Hudson and Mohawk Valley
  Sunday and Monday.

- There is a 50-70% chance for at least a quarter inch of rain
  across much of eastern NY and western New England for the
  middle of next week as our next disturbances progresses
  through the Northeast.

Discussion:

A stretch of above normal temperatures ensues Saturday through
Tuesday as high pressure shifts off shore with southwesterly
return flow ushering in an unseasonably warm air mass. The
warmest days look to be Sunday and Monday where 850hPa isotherms
reach 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal per the NAEFS
and probabilistic guidance shows 50-70% chance for highs to
reach or exceed 80 degrees in the Hudson and Mohawk Valley.
Large scale subsidence should also support mostly sunny skies
through this period. While clear skies overnight will support
large diurnal temperature swings on the order of 20 to 25
degrees, nighttime lows look remain elevated enough to mitigate
frost concerns.

By Tuesday into especially Wednesday we will monitor our next
chance for widespread rainfall as a cold front gradually slides
south and east out of Ontario. A shortwave trough tracking
through southern Canada and an anti-cyclonically curved jet
look to intensify, providing large scale forcing for ascent with
southerly flow directing a moisture plume out of the Gulf into
the Northeast. All of these ingredients in the synoptic pattern
are increasing confidence for widespread rainfall with
probabilistic guidance showing 50-70% chance for 0.25"+ of rain
for much of the area. Still some uncertainties on exact time of
arrival of rain and which areas will receive the highest
amounts but confidence has increased enough that we show
widespread chance POPs on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in over eastern New York and
western New England this morning thru the afternoon with mostly
clear skies aside from a few thin cirrus. KGFL/KALB/KPOU/PSF
will have VFR conditions prior to 12Z/Fri.

The winds will vary from the southeast to south at less than 7
KT from the late morning through the afternoon...and become
light and variable in direction at 5 KT or less to calm
tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ038>040-
     048>051-061-082.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ041-043-047-
     054-058-063-083-084.
MA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MAZ001-025.
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ015.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Wasula