357
FXUS64 KAMA 041116
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
516 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

- Warm temperatures and even record highs are projected across
  the combined Panhandles today. Above normal temperatures are
  projected to continue for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Near term guidance and NBM ensemble members show increasing
confidence in meeting or exceeding record highs at almost all
climate sites today. The only exception potentially being Dalhart,
as there is only a 15% chance to reach 85 degrees this afternoon.
Meanwhile, the Palo Duro Canyon has a 50% to reach 90 degrees or
warmer today. These unusually warm temperatures for this time of
year may impact unprepared hikers. While no products will be issued
for this hazard, heat safety practices are advised for those
planning to endure the afternoon heat.

A cold front and corresponding surface low is expected to transition
southeastward across the CWA Wednesday morning. Day time
temperatures are forecast to retreat back into the 70`s, but perhaps
linger in the 80`s in the PDC. Surface winds behind the front should
be breezy, flowing from the northeast.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure generally remains prominent during the extended
period. After Wednesday, a couple more shortwave troughs are
expected to dig into the High Plains. The next one is expected to
arrive on Friday. Then the second front, the stronger of the two,
will impact the CWA on Sunday. The remaining days inbetween frontal
activity this week will experience warm air advection as heights re-
rise in the wake of our fronts.

Highs for the rest of the week are forecast to propagate back and
forth between the 70`s and 80`s. It may not be until next week where
we see high temperatures return to average or below average values.
Surface winds should stay light to occasionally breezy. Poor
moisture quality over the area and no signs of moisture advection
amongst guidance will continue to keep PoPs absent from the days 3-7
forecast. Fire weather concerns remain low this week due to mostly
light winds, but will continue to be monitored.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Southwesterly winds will ramp up this morning and afternoon at
KAMA, gusting up to 25 kts at times. Other sites will have more
light and variable winds until a weak front moves through at the
end of the period. Expect VFR sky conditions throughout the
period.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...38