Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
118 FXUS64 KAMA 101731 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1131 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - The chance of impact weather over the next 7 days is very low. - Above normal temperatures will prevail, except Saturday night into Sunday behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Very low impact weather will prevail across the panhandles. Cooler afternoon temperatures remain on deck today in the wake of the overnight cold frontal passage, with highs likely to be near to just above normal today along with lingering high cloudiness. Tonight, surface high pressure behind the front will push southeastward across the area, with the afternoon high clouds decreasing and south to southwest winds returning. Another front will make its approach Thursday night, with well above normal temperatures making a quick return and winds turning further westerly ahead of the front. Forecast highs on Thursday have been nudged upward a couple of degrees from the NBM initialization using the NBM 75th percentile given the expected frontal placement and westerly low level winds. This front should be south of the panhandles by daybreak Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Continued very low impact weather remains expected through the weekend and into early next week, with a strong cold front Saturday night bringing the main period of forecast uncertainty, centered on temperatures. High temperatures on Friday will be noticeably lower than those on Thursday, in the wake of the overnight frontal passage, but still should feature above normal values. Southerly winds and warmer afternoon temperatures likely return on Saturday, ahead of the aforementioned strong cold front that night. While the core of the cold air looks to remain safely east of the panhandles given the upper level flow, the spread amongst the various models and their temperature forecasts peaks during the Saturday night into Sunday period. There is fairly high confidence this will be the coldest stretch of the 7 day period, but confidence is low in just how cold it will get. The colder temperatures will be short-lived, with a return to above normal values likely for early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Scattered high clouds today will gradually thin overnight, becoming clear by Thursday morning. Breezy winds from the north will continue to gust to 15-20 kts for the next couple of hours, but will weaken and shift to southwest this evening. Areas of wind shear may occur overnight tonight out of the southwest in the 1-2 kft layer. Surface winds will become westerly Thursday morning. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...99