Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
364 FXUS64 KAMA 022327 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 627 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Warm and dry conditions are favored to continue across the Panhandles through at least this weekend with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. - Uptick in moisture early to mid next week with a medium chance (30- 60%) of Wednesday high temperatures below 70 degrees across all the Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Upper level trough currently approaching the Pacific Northwest may bring impacts to the Panhandles mid to late next week. But for now that will continue to amplify the high pressure over the central CONUS. This will continue our very warm early October temperatures that will continue to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s through at least Saturday. Winds will generally be out of the south to southwest today in the 5-10 mph range, with maybe some gusts to 15, but tomorrow afternoon we will have a lee surface low develop tomorrow afternoon in the SE Colorado area, and that will tighten up those pressure gradients, allowing for stronger southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range gusting around 30 mph Friday afternoon. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 As we await the upper trough that`s progged to be over the Salt Lake City area Saturday morning, the cross barrier flow over the Rockies will continue, and south to southwest breezy winds around 15 to 25 mph look to continue to occur, but will now expand over much of the Panhandles. Strongest winds look to be in the northwest, and may even manage to get sustained 25 to 30 in the far northwest corner. As we move into Sunday the system is progged to eject to the northwest as a more open wave. And there`s a small chance (10-20%) that showers and storms may clip the northwest Panhandles. Monday through Wednesday will be where we start to transition to cooler temperatures and higher moisture content. As that previous upper trough ejects to the central Plains a secondary low from Canada is expected to push back down south toward the Four Corners, which will continue to hold that trough axis over that area. This will continue to keep that south to southwest flow over the Panhandles. There`s a decent pocket of cooler Canadian air that continue to battle the warmer air to the south and models continue to go back and forth on timing of the next decent cold front, as well as how cool, and how long the cold front will last. Given how much the deterministic models continue to flip flop on both the cooler temperatures, and just how far south the moisture will make it next week, we still have several ensemble model members that support a good push of cooler below normal temperatures (30-60% chance of highs below 70 on Wednesday), and some of those same members are favoring more than an inch of precipitation with the multiple rounds of showers and storms. Weber && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions can be expected across the forecast area as clouds clear and winds stay out of the south at around 10 kts tonight. Winds will be breezy tomorrow sustained at about 15-20 kts with gusts around 25-30 kts. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...38