571
FXUS64 KAMA 051840
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
140 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

-Could see a strong to severe thunderstorm, favoring the northern
 Panhandles later this evening.

-Temperatures 10-15 degrees below average behind cold front for
 Monday and Tuesday with some locations not getting out of the 60s
 for high temperatures.

-Rain chances continue through mid week across a good portion of
 the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Latest 18Z observations across the southern Plains continues to
show a trailing cold front associated from a low in the upper
midwest will slowly sweep through the Panhandles later this
afternoon into the evening hours. Some of the more agressive
12-15Z hi-res/CAM model and numerical data does show portions of
the north central and northeastern Panhandles with ML/MU CAPE
approaching 1000J/kg along with effective shear increasing into
the early evening hours with an SSW H850 LLJ increasing. Our
caveat for any widespread precipitation could be the initial cap
ahead of the main front. Not a large one, but with more limited
shear before sunset and the LLJ present, showers and thunderstorm
coverage will be more limited (less than 20% across the
Panhandles), before increasing rain chances for the NE Panhandles
to near 30% after sunset. NBM probs > 0.25" between now and
sunrise tomorrow morning gives some locations along the front
where storms can develop a 10-20%R chance of seeing said rainfall
amounts, but this coverage is rather limited. Some storms
furthest north could be severe with damaging wind gusts and large
hail, especially with the best lift for storms along the
progressing cold front. Thunderstorm activity will wane past
midnight for the majority of the area as the airmass becomes more
stable in the wake of the front.

In the wake of the cold front, the H700 CAA will leisurely move
south into the Panhandles. Went a few clicks below the NBM 25th
percentile for high temperatures tomorrow as cloud cover increases
and rain chances return along the slow moving cold front. High
temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 60s in the NW
Panhandles well behind the front to mid 80s in the far SE TX
Panhandle where they will still likely be ahead of the front most
of the day tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Starting off on Tuesday with NBM 25th percentile high temperatures
once again where cloud cover and rain chances will keep the
Panhandles about 10 to 15 degrees below average for early October
with high temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to lower 70s
across the entire region. Latest 05/12Z model and numerical
guidance shows a low amplitude H500 ridge slowly building
northward throughout the remainder of the week, with high
temperatures slowly climbing back to and slightly exceeding
average highs by the end of the week. There is little accord with
rain chances from the latest global guidance. Depending the
wavelength and where the apex of the sinusoidal curve sets up,
with westerly flow aloft, we could see some ridge rollers bring
some rain chances or large scale subsidence under the ridge could
keep us dry as well. Will watch trends closely getting further
into the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will be out of the south, becoming northerly
between 09-12Z for KDHT/KGUY as a cold front moves into the region
with winds at 10-20 kts with higher gusts at times.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29