545
FXUS64 KAMA 111732
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1132 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Above average temperatures through the work week.

- A weather system arriving this weekend brings cooler conditions
  and low chances for precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A ridge of higher pressure has built across the southern plains
and will remain in place through the work week. The only small
interruption to this is the passing of a weak upper level weather
system across the southern plains today. The passage of this
weather system will move a weak dry cold front across the
panhandles late this morning through the afternoon. Materially
this front is not causing much of an impact as the slight cool
down associated with it will be delayed until Wednesday. Even with
the cooldown both today and Wednesday will remain above normal for
temperatures with today warmer than Wednesday by around 5 degrees.
Beyond upper level moisture causing wispy cirrus there is no
other moisture passing across the panhandles. This will make
conditions dry for both today and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

the ridge of high pressure has a high chance of remaining across
the southern plains through the rest of the work week. This will
continue to dry and warmer than normal temperatures through this
period. On Friday the winds will have a moderate to high chance of
becoming breezy to windy as the southern plains starts to feel the
influence of the weekend weather system. These winds will most
likely further boost the temperatures which may make it hot enough
for the record high to be threatened.

For the weekend a weather system still has a high chance of
impacting the southern plains. The big question with this system
remains with what trajectory it will take when it impact the
southern plains. The current models have trended for a more
northerly path compared to yesterday southerly path. While this is
a big change it mainly impacted the timing of when the impacts
would occur in the panhandles and not what the impacts are
expected. This is mainly due to the moisture fetch associated
with the weather system behaving similarly with a northern
trajectory as with the previous southerly trajectory. Instead the
more northerly trajectory would delay the arrival of the weather
system spreading out it`s impacts to be more towards Sunday. The
most likely solution is that the panhandles see no to little in
the way of moisture during the systems passage. The less likely
solution is the trajectory lines up more favorably to allow
moisture to spread into the panhandles leading to more widespread
and heavier precipitation. The least likely is that the trajectory
is such that the best moisture manages to reach the panhandles
producing even heavier perception. The current forecast still
reflects the drier solutions with a low chance for precipitation
in the panhandles. It is still likely for the forecast to change
as we get a better understanding of where the weekend weather
system is going to go.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98