


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
455 FXUS64 KAMA 141131 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 631 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Dense fog is expected across the northeastern Panhandles this morning but should dissipate by around 10 AM. - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Panhandles in multiple rounds stretching through the afternoon. - Breezy conditions set to return Wednesday and Thursday && .UPDATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Dense fog is ongoing across the northeastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles with observed visibility down to a quarter mile or less for some areas. The fog will gradually clear out as winds shift to out of the south and the sun aids in burning off the fog by mid morning. The Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM, but may need to be cancelled sooner as observations have been showing subtle signs of visibility improvement already this morning. Isolated rain showers continue to move northeast at this time with very little rainfall expected from them. Additional rain showers are moving northeast across eastern New Mexico and may move over portions of the western Panhandles through the rest of the day. PoPs have been slightly adjusted based on the latest model guidance through this afternoon. Muscha && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Showers, perhaps with some isolated thunderstorms, will most likely be ongoing in the northwestern Panhandles to start Tuesday morning. Meanwhile in the eastern combined Panhandles, fog is expected to be present and should continue into the mid-morning hours. CAMs continue to signal the potential for one or more rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms to last through the morning and afternoon hours in the northwestern Panhandles, possibly as bands. Latest guidance becoming more confident regarding this activity occurring and resulting in some more decent rainfall totals; the HREF gives around a 30-50% chance for rain totals to exceed 1" across the northwestern combined Panhandles where the rain band(s) are more favored to set up with the reasonable worst case (90th percentile) being around 1.3" to 1.6". Rain should come to an end across the area by Tuesday evening as clouds clear from south to north. An upper-level trough in the Western US will begin to eject east- northeastward Wednesday with a surface low developing in eastern Colorado. The surface pressure gradient will tighten as a result and winds will strengthen to 15-25 mph throughout the day with gusts between 25 to 35 mph with around a 20-40% chance for wind gusts to exceed 35 mph in the northwestern combined Panhandles. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 An upper-level trough lifts into the Northern Plains throughout Thursday, and the right entrance region of the associated jet streak will favor the development of a surface low in SE Colorado. 15-25 mph sustained winds with gusts between 25-35 mph will once again be anticipated across the area with a 30-60% chance for wind gusts to exceed 35 mph across the northern and central Panhandles. A cold front is favored to move in late Thursday night which brings some cooler air in for Friday. Operational models as well as their ensemble means indicate that the overall large-scale pattern will progress eastward. An upper-level ridge will begin to build over the Panhandles as another trough is favored to move over the Pacific Northwest later in the weekend. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 LIFR conditions are being observed at KDHT and KGUY due to low ceilings and visibility. The low clouds and fog will last for a few more hours before clearing out before 18z. VFR conditions are expected at all sites once the low clouds and fog clear out. Isolated rain showers will be possible mainly for KDHT but no aviation impacts are currently expected. Winds will become southerly with gusts upwards of 25 kts later today before decreasing down to 10 kts or less towards the later half of this TAF cycle. Muscha && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ004-005- 009-010. OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ003. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...05