642
FXUS63 KAPX 061802
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
202 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Rainfall progresses across Northern Michigan today with a few
embedded thunderstorms.

-Cooler air mass returns climatologically normal temperatures with
overnight frost/freeze potential.

-Additional minor precipitation chances return this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Current radar and satellite depict a broken band of clouds and
light to moderate rain moving over the eastern U.P. Northwest
winds have taken over most of the central and western U.P. and
will continue to track to the southeast. Clouds, light rain, and
the winds shift still look on track to reach the northern Lk MI
shores of northern lower within the next hour. 12Z CAMs are
still hinting at some embedded storms along the boundary and an
isolated storm/shower or two just ahead of it. The 12Z KAPX RAOB
shows a decent near surface cap to overcome, however convective
Ts of 80s will likely be reached over central parts of the lower
peninsula. A few inversions exist aloft, keeping any chances
for severe potential limited. Most convective activity should
remain showery with occasional thunder, with the low end chances
for some marginally gust outflow winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel troughing currently over central Canada
will continue to progress eastward today and return an unstable air
mass to the Great Lakes Region. A cold front parallel to midlevel
heights will generate showers and even a few storms across the
northwoods today.

Forecast Details...

Today...Ongoing anafront will be progressing across the CWA this
morning with a line of showers and storms returning some beneficial
rainfall. Leading edge of convection followed by stratiform rain
will generate a general quarter inch or less across most parts of
eastern upper and northern lower. Hi-rez model soundings depict
profiles with deeper warm-moisture layers, seasonably high PWAT
values, and some building afternoon instability for the southwestern
half of northern lower to support locally higher QPF values. A
general quarter to half inch is expected for these areas, but it
cannot be ruled out that one or two locations near the
Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay region observe totals near an inch.

Tonight...Some lingering stratiform rainfall will carry into tonight
producing only a general trace of additional precip across the
northwoods. Overall conditions will be drying and turning quiet as
high pressure returns a cool/Canadian air mass settles into the
region. Falling temperatures via cold air advection will drop
overnight lows into the 40s across most of interior parts of
Northern Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...Upstream midlevel shortwave ridging
progresses eastward this Tuesday through midweek. Surface high
pressure and quiet weather will keep precip free conditions. Sunny
skies and diurnal heating will keep daytime highs in the 60s, but
overnight lows will be quite the cold shock when compared to the
past few nights. H8 temperatures near 0 C, low dew points, and
clear skies will allow overnight radiational cooling to drop near
freezing at night. Highest probabilities of temperatures dropping
below freezing remains across interior northern lower and eastern
upper while sites near the shorelines should have more protection
from marine influences.

Thursday through Sunday Outlook...Midlevel pattern transitions to a
split flow set up with weak ridging over Hudson Bay and shortwave
toughing regime east of the Mississippi Vally. Weak flow aloft will
continue overall quiet weather through the remainder of the week. No
synoptic systems are expected to return impactful weather, but
probabilities of precipitation at times will remain in the forecast
due to embedded height disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Cold front continues to cross northern MI from northwest to
southeast this afternoon. Showers at CIU/PLN become more numerous
area-wide this evening/overnight before exiting north to south late
tonight into early Tuesday morning. Winds already out of the
northwest post-frontal passage at all terminals except APN...
expected to also veer northwest in the next couple of hours. Mix
of VFR/MVFR CIGs this afternoon with increasing probabilities
for MVFR and perhaps IFR CIGs this evening through much of
tonight. Improvement back to VFR expected area-wide late
tonight/Tuesday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-
     342-344>346.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ELD
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MJG