846
FXUS63 KAPX 011849
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
249 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Lake induced shower coverage drifts from Grand Traverse Bay
 into the Straits region by Sunday morning, tapering in the
 process. Dry weather elsewhere.

-Increasingly windy conditions with widespread light rain showers
 building into the region Sunday evening through Monday.

-Mild with occasionally breezy and showery periods at times
 through the remainder of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Meridional pattern across NOAM... Large closed low spinning off
Atlantic Canada, with another deep shortwave over the heart of the
Corn Belt region pivoting southeast around the periphery of the
Atlantic Canada closed low. This leaves northern Michigan in the
neutral point of the pattern, with weak, almost stationary flow
transpiring in northern Michigan. Result will be continued weak
northerly flow, and with just enough moisture and cold air aloft,
this should promote the continuation of lake induced instability
across the NW lower lakeshores. A much more potent wave will crest
an amplified ridge over the western Plains / northern Rockies, and
will approach the region later Sunday... bringing with it a strong
surface reflection that will bring impacts at the start of the Long
Term forecast period.

Forecast Details:

Current radar and satellite check over the region showcases a
classic weak flow pattern across the upper Great Lakes... enhanced
convergence region across the spine of Grand Traverse Bay will
continue to drive lake induced shower activity through tonight...
largely impacting the TVC area and points south toward Manistee and
Cadillac with the occasional shower. Non-zero waterspout potential
over the nearshore waters with this feature. Elsewhere, anticipating
a mix of sun and clouds the rest of the day. Temps have gradually
poked into the upper 30s and mid 40s, perhaps warming a few more
degrees at most during peak heating. Heading into tonight,
anticipating that area of showers to linger across portions of NW
lower as a more pronounced plume of drier air intrudes with surface
high pressure passing overhead. Result will be an intial decoupling
of winds over land, with land breezes prevailing on the shores (also
enhancing that Lake Michigan shower activity). Flow increases and
turns more SW with time later tonight into Sunday morning as the
surface high is dispatched stage right by the approaching wave
coming out of the Rockies and northern Plains. As such, anticipating
temperatures to tumble pretty quickly this evening, probably landing
into the 20s across the interior and northeast lower (where they
will remain until daybreak)... while NW lower and eastern upper may
crater early, anticipating that once the return flow kicks in, temps
probably rise into the 30s later tonight.

SW flow really kicks in for Sunday as the next system approaches.
Pinched pressure gradient from the surface high to our east and the
approaching system from our northwest will lead to increasingly
breezy conditions with time Sunday... this will also shift ongoing
lake showers into the Straits region Sunday morning before that
overlake instability wanes owing to warm advection. Dry elsewhere.
Highs generally 48-55 degrees on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Aforementioned potent wave and attendant surface low pressure will
drag a surface cold front through the region later Sunday night into
Monday, bringing the next chance for widespread rain shower
activity. While showers are anticipated, it should be noted that
this system will have little to no Gulf moisture tap, and most of
the moisture probably gets supplied by the lakes. As such,
anticipating minimal rainfall totals by the time this system departs
later Monday... most spots probably fail to bag 0.10" of rain...
with the eastern Yoop perhaps seeing a few spots approach 0.25".

The biggest story from this system is certainly going to be those
gusty winds. SWerly LLJ exceeding 50kts prevalent on long term
guidance... and that means pre-frontal flow could have some pizzazz
to it. Strongest winds will be over the northern waters of Lake
Michigan... where widespread Gales and high waves are likely (hence
the Gale Watch). Some concerns do arise as this flow regime will be
associated with warm air advection, which routinely struggles to mix
with less efficient momentum transfer. Nonetheless, model soundings
do depict a period of potential 40 to 45kt flow over the open lake
and perhaps on the lakeshores if this stronger flow aloft can be
mixed down. While this would meet land-based High Wind Watch
criteria for the Straits and into Leelanau county, am not opting to
bite on that attm given the high uncertainties, and the fact that we
would have to mix from 850mb in a war advection regime... so while
it will certainly be windy (35-40mph gust potential in those
highlighted areas), at this juncture it just does not appear to
bring about headline-worthy wind concerns.

The meridional pattern will continue to bring a fire brigade of
quick-hitting northern stream systems that will bring about
increases in winds and shower chances at various times throughout
the remainder of the forecast period. Long term guidance
specifically highlights late Tuesday night into Wednesday and Friday-
Saturday as periods with unsettled weather. Considering deeper cold
air will remain suppressed well north into Canada, anticipating that
these systems pass with minimal to no snow potential at this
juncture. More details to come.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR cigs are expected to remain in place across the northwoods
throughout the entire forecast period besides periodic Cu for
the next few hours. Winds begin to increase midday Sunday with
southwest gust well into 20s for most sites. Additional
precipitation chances return to northern Michigan Sunday night
(beyond the TAF period).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345-
     346.
     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
     LHZ347>349.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...SJC