140
FXUS63 KAPX 241131
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
631 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably mild early this week with rain showers tonight
  into Tuesday.

- Colder, windy, and heavy lake effect snow Wednesday night through Friday.
  Combination of heavy snowfall rates and gusty winds will result in
  hazardous travel at times for the Thanksgiving travel period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 248 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Sfc high pressure system slides to the east from the OH Valley to
the Mid Atlantic shoreline through the day on Monday. Meanwhile, sfc
low pressure system continues well off to the north in Ontario. The
circulation and pressure gradient between these two features will
result in breezy southwest sfc winds today, which will be
responsible for ushering in seasonably mild temperatures for late
November. High temperatures will be in the low 50s most areas.
Heading into the late afternoon and tonight, a batch of warm, moist
advection and an embedded circulation aloft will produce an area of
rain showers, largely consequent of a developing area of low
pressure system across MN/WI. Band of showers will develop from
southwest to northeast generally, slowly drifting northward into
Tuesday. This will have very little impact overall, with just a
tenth or so of rain for most (into Tuesday). Low temperatures
generally above freezing tonight, with values in the mid to
upper 30s and low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Day 2 (Tuesday):

Batch of warm, moist low level advection driven showers will continue
to move northward through the day on Tuesday consequent of sfc low
pressure system across MN. Another subtle perturbation to the south
moving northeast across the OH Valley may clip southern areas with a
little showery activity as well Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, light
winds, light rain showers, and temperatures in the mid to upper 40s
is not all that impactful, but that will certainly change Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

Days 3-7 (Tuesday night - Sunday):

Sfc low pressure system and associated cold front will advect a much
colder airmass into norther MI, and more importantly across the
Great Lakes, Tuesday night into Wednesday. Sfc low pressure system
will deepen some across the ~Straits and E UP, due in part to
strengthening H500 low. Thus, gusty winds are anticipated Wednesday,
and continuing through Thursday with forecast soundings supporting
~30-40mph gusts inland (could be locally higher), and 40mph+ near
the shorelines. Meanwhile, rain Tuesday night into early Wednesday
will transition to a mix of rain and snow and then snow later
Wednesday as the colder air filters in behind the westerly winds.
The lake effect machine will begin to kick in as early as Wednesday
afternoon as low level winds shift westerly, eventually becoming
more northwesterly into Thursday. There could be some waffling in
the low level wind direction as the low pressure system moves off to
the east, and thus could spread a portion of the wealth (snow)
across a decent chunk of northwest lower MI. That being said, the
typical intense Antrim, Kalkaska, and vicinity snow bands are
showing up in the guidance, with perhaps a farther downstream
component due to the strong winds. Forecast soundings show a lake
effect/enhanced sounding, with BL heights ~750-700 mb, or ~2km, with
deep saturation through the column. Plenty for heavy snow bands and
intense snow rates.

Current guidance has ~6 to 12" of snow across the broader
traditionally favored NW & NNW snow belts, with higher amounts
likely within the normal "jackpot zones"(global guidance ~18+"
within the most persistent band(s), that Antrim/Kalk vicinity
region). Heaviest snow timing will be Wednesday night through
Thursday night. The combination of strong, gusty winds and heavy
snowfall rates within the more impressive lake effect bands will
lead to periods of very low to near zero visibility, blowing and
drifting snow, and hazardous to dangerous driving conditions later
Wednesday through Thursday night. Those with travel plans during
this period should continue to monitor the forecast for the latest
updates.

Pattern might try to relax during the early portions of the
weekend, albeit maybe only briefly. Another disturbance will
have to be watched as it moves into the central US during the
second half of the weekend and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Clouds will increase and eventually lower today, though staying
VFR. CIU/PLN/TVC/MBL will see MVFR cigs develop this evening,
while APN waits until overnight. CIU likely sees IFR cigs
overnight. Increasing chances for showers tonight as well.

Somewhat breezy southerly winds today.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for LHZ345>349.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday morning for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321-
     322.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ