917
FXUS63 KAPX 242037
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
337 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High travel impact lake effect snow event is expected for
  parts of northern Michigan Wednesday evening into Friday. High
  snowfall amounts and strong winds are expected to bring
  significant drops in visibility and hazardous travel at times
  -- especially Wednesday night and Thanksgiving morning.

- Otherwise mild temperatures early this week with rain chances
  into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 335 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to slide east of the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes this evening, getting replaced by a lifting shortwave tonight.
A second, much stronger trough will dig from the Pacific Northwest
and over the Great Plains on Tuesday. This feature will provide
strong divergence aloft to begin deepening a broad cyclone currently
over the southern Great Plains as it works northeast into the Great
Lakes by Tuesday night.

Forecast Details:

Relatively weak warm advection/low-level convergence will help drive
a band of rain that looks to set up across far northern lower
Michigan and the eastern U.P. this evening and tonight. This band is
expected to gradually work its way north across the eastern U.P. on
Tuesday as the warm front lifts away from the area. Additional light
rain/drizzle chances look to work into northern lower Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts through the period
are expected to stay below 0.25" for most areas. Otherwise,
southerly low-level flow will keep a mild airmass in place early
this week with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s for most through
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Holiday Lake Effect Snow and Winds (Wednesday - Friday):

Utmost forecast concern remains on the expected high-impact lake
effect snow event set to target portions of northern Michigan in the
Wednesday afternoon - Friday timeframe. An impressive trough will
punch across the region Wednesday and Thursday, providing strong
ascent that will help quickly deepen a cyclone as it treks across
the northern half of the state and into Ontario/Quebec.

Wednesday will begin with rain chances across the area on the front
side of the system with the potential for a lull in precip during
the late morning/early afternoon timeframe for some. A transition to
snow is expected Wednesday afternoon/evening, resulting in a quick
degradation of travel conditions across much of northwest lower
Michigan. The transition to snow is expected to take place later
Wednesday night across the eastern U.P. as the system takes time to
move east of the area.

As lake effect snow sets in Wednesday night, snow showers are
likely to pop across a large area of northern Michigan with an
initial cellular convective evolution with large amounts of over
lake instability and strong winds. With time, more dominant
northwest winds and lack of diurnal component should help
organize lake effect into a few main bands by Thanksgiving
morning. This late Wednesday night/Thanksgiving morning
timeframe will likely be the period of worst conditions across
the area. Strong wind gusts of 30- 45+ mph will combine with the
heaviest lake effect snow -- potentially 1-2" per hour or
higher under the strongest bands -- to bring quick accumulations
on roads, localized whiteout conditions at times, and hazardous
holiday travel. Most significant blowing snow and drops in
visibility are most likely across exposed north-south oriented
roads given northwest winds -- bringing stretches of US-131 and
even I-75 into focus. Strong winds will also push lake effect
bands far inland, even into southeast portions of the CWA.

As far as amounts, the most likely area for 8" or more will be
portions of interior Charlevoix, Antrim, Otsego, Kalkaska, and
Crawford counties as heaviest lake effect banding is currently
expected here -- and is highlighted by the Winter Storm Watch.
Several inches of snow is anticipated across a wide area of
northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan and, along with
aforementioned strong winds, impactful holiday travel for many away
from the heaviest snowfall. Lake effect snow intensity will
gradually decrease with time late Thanksgiving day with chances
continuing through Friday. Stay tuned to the latest forecast for
updates.

This Weekend (Saturday - Sunday):

After lake effect snow tapers off on Friday, a brief break in precip
appears to be in store before additional chances make a return to
the region over the weekend. Ridging on the backside of the
departing system should keep northern Michigan mostly dry into
Saturday before expansive troughing looks to pivot across the heart
of the continent, bringing chances for snow back to the Great Lakes
for the second half of the weekend. Highs in the upper 20s to mid
30s with lows in the teens and 20s are currently anticipated through
the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions will trend MVFR to IFR tonight as rain chances
increase, especially across northern terminals. Breezy southwest
winds (occasional gusts 20-25 knots) will decrease through the
evening becoming light tonight into Tuesday morning as they gain
more of an easterly component.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     morning for MIZ021-022-027-028-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday morning for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321-
     322.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday
     night for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...NSC