330
FXUS63 KAPX 191701
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1201 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another dry day today.

- Next rain chances arrive Thursday into Thursday night. Best
  chances across eastern upper.

- Lingering light showers of rain and snow possible Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 216 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Split flow regime still rampant across the board... dilapidated
wave to our south will be forced south and east by an incoming ridge
axis, which will allows for surface high pressure to remain overhead
for Wednesday. Light winds anticipated with some clouds increasing
late this afternoon... highs in the 40s across the board.

Aforementioned split flow regime will send a northern stream wave
our way as we progress into tonight, but will be moisture starved
owing to a southern stream wave mitigating a Gulf moisture tap into
the region. Nonetheless, clouds continue to build tonight as
attendant surface low zips east across Manitoba into Ontario,
leading to the commencement of return flow later tonight. Low temp
forecast a bit of a tricky one, as we will be contending with a 4 to
8 hour window of pseudo-clear skies and decoupled winds.
Temperatures likely tank early (probably dipping into the 20s and
30s, coldest NE lower) before rising into the 30s across NW lower
and eastern upper by sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 216 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Northern stream wave zips through the region on Thursday, bringing
the next round of rain showers to the Northwoods, especially the
farther north one goes. Current guidance wants to bump temps into
the mid-to-upper 40s, but with an early onset of clouds and precip,
would not be shocked to see that under-perform. As for
precipitation... mostly rain expected; however, bit of a convoluted
atmospheric profile to play with. Best moisture and lift will be
displaced north, so all rain is likely north of the Bridge, with
perhaps a few snowflakes. Shower coverage will be a bit more shaky
the farther south one goes... and will consist of elevated activity.
A touch of dry air in the low levels suggests evaporative cooling
may try to commence in any afternoon showers with a cold pool
beneath a 700mb warm nose, which could bring about some sleet mixing
in at times across northern lower if temps at the surface can
sufficiently under-perform like some CAMs suggest. Will refrain from
adding that, but certainly in the realm of possibility. That all
being said, precip amounts will be so light that it will be largely
unimpactful in the grand scheme of things.

Beyond that, this system will drag a cold front through Thursday
night... and I struggle to even call it that... because the cold
advection is rather unimpressive. That being said, the magic will be
happening aloft as an intrusion of air just cold enough aloft can
drum up some lake-aided showers of rain / snow Friday as another
weak wave passes and provides just enough support for some
shenanigans. Marginal temperatures in the 30s and 40s will mitigate
impacts from any snow. Further into the weekend, ridging returns and
so does anomalous warmth... with highs well into the 40s by Sunday
and Monday. Guidance is all over the place with next week`s
solutions, which is a product of potential for another northern
stream system to bring light precip to the region at the start of
next week. More details to come, but it looks like we are going to
have to keep waiting on the wintry weather regime to return to the
region for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Primarily VFR this afternoon through much of tonight despite
gradually increasing clouds in advance of low pressure passing by to
our north on Thursday. Chances for MVFR CIGs increase very late
tonight/early Thursday morning, especially at MBL/TVC/PLN/CIU. Light
rain chances eventually accompany these lower CIGs, mainly after 15z
Thursday (and more beyond the TAF period Thursday afternoon).
Light winds this afternoon through tonight turn out of the south
for Thursday and become a touch breezy by midday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday
     for LMZ323-341-342-344-345.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MJG