146
FXUS63 KAPX 011729
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1229 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Localized heavy lake effect snow along the Lake Michigan shoreline
this evening through Tuesday morning.

-Periods of light snowfall continue across the northwoods through
the entirety of the forecast period.

-Cold temperatures impact the region this Thursday and Thursday
night with near zero apparent T`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Large scale closed low pressure over Hudson Bay
with longwave midlevel troughing spanned across the northern half of
the U.S will continue to keep cool cP air over Great Lakes region.
At the surface, high pressure will continue cyclonic rotation across
the midwest with a weak frontal boundary stalled over the CWA. Meso-
scale lake effect processes will be supported as a result while the
majority of the northwoods remains cool and relatively quiet.

Forecast Details...

Today...Main focus for todays forcast is the ongoing lake effect
snow with as persistent northwest flow continues to spread a classic
multi-band snow showers across the classic snowbelts. Snowfall
intensity for much of the day remains relatively minor as low/
midlevel atmospheric humidity is pretty dry from the previously
mentioned high pressure and cP air mass. Only accumulations will be
an additional trace for most of the snowbelts while inland parts of
northern lower could see another inch or so of 17:1 snowfall for
parts of Otsego, Crawford, Antrim, or Kalkaska counties.

Tonight...Surface high pressure will begin to back winds to the
southwest this evening along with the previously mentioned stationary
boundary advecting low level moisture into northern Michigan. Model
soundings depict a fairly profile through the midlevels and
relatively weak 925-700mb directional shear indicative to supporting
LES bands running parallel to the Lake Michigan shoreline. Snowfall
totals will vary depending on county and its fetch, but hi-rez
guidance depicts snow to organize just after 00Z and impacting areas
the worst near and north of Little Traverse Bay. Highest
probabilities of snowfall range from 3 to 6 inches for several
counties along the Lake Michigan shoreline, but parts of Emmet county
could receive totals of 6-10" with localized higher totals of a foot
or more if proper convergence from an overnight land breeze occurs.
The remainder of the CWA will see lesser amounts with an inch less
of snowfall expected by Tuesday morning as intensity greatly
diminishes outside areas of highest reflectivity.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...Midlevel troughing pattern continues through
the reminder of the forecast period. Current guidance depicts a
shortwave with closed low pressure tracking eastward just north of
the CWA Wednesday morning while weakening with time. Enough moisture
will continue light snowfall through Wednesday night into Thursday
from the frontal passage and with a NW flow lake response. Highest
probabilities of snowfall remain around 2-4" by Thursday morning for
the typical snowbelts of northern lower and eastern upper.

Thursday and Friday... Midlevel trough axis will continue to pivot
around Hudson Bay centering its over the Great Lakes region this
Thursday. Temperatures at the surface respond with temperatures
dropping below normal for early December behind the cold front.
Expect widespread highs in the teens across northern Michigan this
Thursday and overnight temperatures in the single digits.

Saturday and Sunday Outlook...Continued troughing with embedded waves
will keep the pattern somewhat active through the reminder of the
week. Long range ensembles continue to keep low probs of snowfall
through the weekend. No evidence of widespread heavy precipitation
but this long snowy pattern will remain in place and deliver light
snow showers this weekend as weak head into mid December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

SW flow snow showers to increase in coverage/intensity through
afternoon, esp after 0z, with all sites transitioning to IFR
cigs except APN which may stay VFR/MVFR through most of the night.
Snow will linger into the morning, esp for CIU/PLN and APN, with
improving cigs/visbys to MVFR/VFR. Think the worst impacts will be
at PLN with LIFR likely at times overnight. MBL, TVC could also have
periods of LIFR tonight, esp MBL...less confidence at CIU. Winds
expected to remain generally from the SW 5-10kts but should be
variable at times overnight. Low confidence in gusts 20-25kts
through the night but potential for some LLWS from SW at 25kts
around 1500ft, esp at APN and possibly TVC.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ016.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ017-097-099.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ020-021-025-031.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ088-096.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...FEF