357
FXUS63 KAPX 081917
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
217 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- South-southwest flow lake effect ramps up later this
  afternoon with widespread synoptic snow spreading across
  northern MI tonight into Tuesday.

- Another system Tuesday night - Wednesday bringing accumulating snow
  to parts of the area. Additional lake effect snow likely in
  its wake Wednesday evening - Thursday.

- Additional snow chances Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing remains anchored over
the eastern two-thirds of NOAM this afternoon. While surface high
pressure sits overhead currently, attention is focused upstream on a
wave currently making headway into the Dakotas. Attendant ~1008mb
sfc low follows suit. This wave expected to be just on the other
side of Lake Michigan by 12z Tuesday before crossing northern MI
Tuesday morning/midday. Initial south-southwest flow lake effect
expected to ramp up this afternoon/evening with synoptic snow
arriving area-wide later tonight into Tuesday.

Forecast Details: Initial SSW flow lake effect band beginning to
materialize across central/northern Lake Michigan as of early this
afternoon. Latest trends still supporting that to intensify and
progress north into parts of western/central Mackinac County later
this afternoon/early evening with locally intense snow continuing
through the evening. This band may scrape parts of the far northwest
lower shoreline through this time as well -- far western
Benzie/Leelanau counties most susceptible to this. By later tonight
into early Tuesday morning, synoptic snow expected to spread
across the remainder of the forecast area with lake enhancement
continuing near the Lake Michigan shoreline.

This system a rather quick mover with the bulk of steadiest snow in
the rear view mirror by midday Tuesday, though some lingering lake
aided snow showers linger into the afternoon, especially in
west/west-southwest flow favored areas. This should focus the most
notable lingering snow showers across the tip of the mitt, perhaps
enhanced locally near/around the Little Traverse Bay convergence
zone and stretching inland to near I-75.

With respect to accumulation and impacts, the heaviest snow is still
expected across parts of western Mackinac County (perhaps stretching
into western Chippewa as well) with 3-8 inches and highly localized
amounts of 10-12+ inches not out of the question. A general 3-6
inches across Beaver Island and far northwest lower over sections of
Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee counties. 2-4 inches anticipated over
the broader Little Traverse Bay region, although some locally higher
amounts can`t be ruled out. Lesser amounts of 1-3 inches across the
remainder of northern lower and east of I-75 in the U.P. Hazardous
travel will be the result, most notably across parts of western
Mackinac/Chippewa counties, Beaver Island, and into far northwest
lower where snow-covered roads and low visibility may be exacerbated
as times by blowing/drifting snow as a result of increasingly gusty
winds of around 30 mph. Worst of these conditions may
materialize along US-2 from Brevort and points west where
southwest winds may gust locally higher this evening-tonight
coinciding with the area of greatest snowfall.

Not much of a break with another system hot on the heels of this one
for Tuesday night - Wednesday, discussed in further detail
below.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Active winter pattern continues for the week ahead with several
periods to watch for potentially impactful snow.

Tuesday night - Thursday:  By Tuesday evening, low pressure is
expected to be situated over western MN, quickly making eastward
progress across WI overnight and into southern/central MI by
Wednesday morning. More uncertainty with this system as ensemble
spread remains a little wider than preferred, especially with
respect to low pressure track and resultant swath of heaviest snow.
Latest trends continue to support the highest probabilities for 4"+
of snow maximized over parts of northern lower, as high as 50-70% in
spots. Plenty of Pacific moisture with this system. but still looks
to have quite the warm advection response with it -- and non-zero
chances for some rain to mix in, primarily near and south of the M-
55 corridor from Manistee to Saginaw Bay.  That said, if strongest
FGEN forcing can survive its trip into Michigan, a narrow band
of locally heavier snow seems likely, although the most likely
area for that to occur remains TBD.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow lake effect snow shower
should kick in Wednesday afternoon and likely continue in spots
through Thursday. Additional accumulation and hazardous travel
likely to continue across these snow belts.

Friday into the weekend:  Another wave set to cross the northern
tier of the country on Friday with increasing potential for the core
of an Arctic airmass to follow in its wake heading into the weekend.
H8 temps progged as low as around -20C Saturday/Sunday. Longer range
ENS trends favor increasing likelihood for a prolonged lake
effect/enhanced event that`d favor the typical snowbelts with highs
in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single digits across much of
northern MI through this time frame. However, given such cold
temperatures, potential for dendritic growth may be limited,
resulting in smaller flake size and limit overall accumulation to an
extent, but also yield lower visibilities. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Light winds become S to SSE through afternoon into the overnight,
increasing to sustained 10-15kts, esp at MBL/TVC and eventually APN.
LLWS around 1500ft, from the SW at 30-35kt; expect this to start
mixing down as gusts in the morning with subtle wind shift to S/SSW
behind subtle front. VFR cigs slowly decrease to MVFR this
afternoon/evening and eventually IFR for most all sites, with worst
conditions starting 5-9z for MBL/TVC/CIU and possibly PLN. IFR
conditions make it into APN toward 12-15z. Expect lowering visbys
with snow/blowing snow tonight as well which could drop categories
quicker/more frequently than expected. Possible some fog/low stratus
may try to develop overnight, esp at APN, and have hinted at this in
TAFs.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ020-025-031.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ086-098.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ095.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     MIZ096.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ348-349.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...FEF