519
FXUS63 KAPX 050743
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
243 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest flow lake effect snow will continue today, resulting in
1 to 4 inches of snow over parts of Emmet, Mackinac, and Chippewa
counties

- Widespread 1 to 3 inches of snow will be seen over areas of NW
lower tonight

- Times of snow will continue through the weekend for most of
northern MI

- Cold overnight low temperatures Sunday night into Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 223 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Currently, surface observations are showing south to southwest wind
gusts becoming more frequent over the upper penisula and coastal
areas of northern lower. This has allowed surface temperatures to
begin trending up, with interior areas of northern lower back into
the teens (KGOV dropping below 0F last night). Winds should peak
around sunrise this morning, then the surface gradient will relax
during the day today - allowing winds to gradually weaken. However,
coastal areas of northern lower, the tip of the mitt, and western
Mackinac will continue to see gusts up to 20 to 25 mph through late
Saturday.

Zooming out quick, broad troughing over most of the CONUS has placed
quasi-zonal flow aloft over northern MI today. Under this set up,
surface features have been able to slide down the Canadian plains
and into the northern US rockies and plains. A weaker surface low
has pushed up against a surface high to the east of MI, resulting in
a ~10 mb surface gradient this morning over the state. Heavier lake
effect snow showers will begin shortly within these stronger wind
fields (which will continue through this morning). Once the gradient
slackens these snow showers will weaken and become more transient.
Newest guidance also suggests that the focus of the showers will
transition to northern lower this afternoon, as the DGZ over eastern
upper breifly trends drier. Even though intensity of snow showers
will trend down starting around midday, a localized heavier band or
two could still be impacting Emmet county through the afternoon. The
winter weather advisory was extended to reflects these thoughts for
Emmet county. All in all, Snow totals for today are generally 2 to 4
inches with locally higher up to 5 to 6". Most of this is being
forced in the low levels, and lacking aid from the mid/upper levels,
leading to only the localized areas seeing higher amounts. Times of
heavier snow and blowing snow will lead to spots of visibility
reductions.

This afternoon and evening, weaker surface troughing over southern
MN/WI will approaching MI. This will continue those southwest gusts
up to 25 mph over the coastal Lk MI locations into tonight. It will
also rotate an embedded upper shortwave in with it, which helps
bring mid and upper level dynamics into play (adding slight aid in
lifting). Widespread light snow over more of NW lower will seen as
these features approach and move through. Some lake enhancement
could allow for times of moderate snowfall. Amounts will generally
remain around 1-3 inches over most areas of NW lower. As always with
lake effect/enhanced snow, some localized higher amounts are
possible with this snowfall tonight. Guidance is starting to
highlight a potential for areas near, west, and south of Grand
Traverse Bay to see 1-3" more in these localized areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Winds transition to northwest behind the weaker boundary early
Saturday, and will carry some NW lake effect snow showers inland
over northern lower and eastern upper. Intermittent snow showers
will continue for parts of eastern upper through the weekend.
Gradients slacken over northern lower later on Saturday as a surface
cyclonic moves northward up the plain. The cyclone passes to the
south, with surface winds turning east but remaining light early
Sunday. Widespread light snow will be seen over most of northern
lower. Depending on the track, brief moderate snow could be seen
over the southern tier of counties in the CWA, however current
guidance isn`t favoring that (ensemble guidance keeping all 24hr
snowfall under 3" for KMBL on Sunday).

Late Sunday into Monday, a ~1030mb surface high will slide down the
northern plains, moving over MI early Monday morning. North-
northwest winds could generate some brief moderate to heavy lake
effect snow showers over Grand Traverse Bay and areas south & west.
This should be short lived as the surface high builds in quickly
Monday morning. This colder airmass will allow for cold
temperatures over interior northern lower and eastern upper early
Monday morning. Some guidance puts KGOV down into the -10F to -5F
range. With winds being more NNW, its unlikely that clouds will
impact temperatures dropping for typically cold inland locations.
This results in a higher confidence forecast for these cold
temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning.

The next system moves in around mid week next week, and could result
in some larger snow amounts from synoptic system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Worsening conditions late tonight CIU/PLN. Sw flow lake-
enhanced snow will develop and increase in coverage/intensity
over eastern upper and far northern lower MI. Expect CIU to
become IFR late tonight, and PLN Friday morning, in falling and
blowing snow. Conditions improve to MVFR in the afternoon.

For TVC/APN/MBL, VFR tonight, becoming MVFR cigs/vsbys with
light snow on Friday.

S to sw winds become blustery late tonight. Winds diminish a
bit Friday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM EST
     this afternoon for MIZ016.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     MIZ017-086>088-095-096-098.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     LHZ346>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ349.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JZ