379
FXUS63 KAPX 081137
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
637 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow kicks off late this evening/ tonight, with
  more organized lake effect snow expected Sunday into Monday.

- Temperatures turn much colder early next week with moderating
  temperatures into the 40s by mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

A weak surface ridge will provide a relatively calm start to
the weekend. However, a few light lake effect showers or
flurries can`t be ruled out towards the evening under gradually
increasing cold air advection. Daytime highs look to range from
the upper 30s to low 40s with light winds. Clouds will gradually
increase through the evening as north to northwest flow
strengthens and lake effect snow chances increase through the
night for areas near and south of Grand Traverse Bay. These
areas could see a couple inches with locally higher amounts
possible in better convergent areas, with the greatest
likelihood centered on the highlands of Leelanau and Benzie
Counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Deep troughing digs into the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday,
with the primary driver of this troughing centered on a strong
shortwave trough expected to dive south out of northern Ontario
later Sunday. The aforementioned strong shortwave will drive a
surge of cold Canadian air directly across the Great Lakes. 850
mb temperatures dropping into the low negative teens should
trigger a widespread lake response, with lake effect show
showers expected to develop across portions of northwest Lower
and eastern Upper.

Wind direction will be key; a primary northerly component would
favor snow bands setting up along parts of the Lake Michigan
shoreline, especially areas near and south of Grand Traverse Bay
and areas near Whitefish Point in eastern Upper. Guidance is
hinting at some lake aggregate troughing that could complicate
band placement, potentially allowing a more northeasterly flow
at times... this would place northeast Lower in better placement
for accumulating snow and make the lake Michigan effect snow
band hug more of the shoreline or completely stay offshore.
Guidance looks to favor a more northerly component to start the
event, then as the day progresses through Sunday, winds look to
turn more northeasterly with the development of a mesolow across
northern Lake Huron. Will continue to watch this closely with
accumulating snowfall likely.

Otherwise, temperatures will be the bigger story for most of
the area. Highs Sunday and Monday look to only reach the 30s,
with overnight lows reaching the teens away from the Lakes with
20s expected elsewhere. Brisk north to northwest winds will make
it feel even colder at times. Heading into the middle or latter
parts of next week, the core of the trough gradually lifts out,
allowing temperatures to slowly moderate. We`ll likely keep
some lingering troughing overhead, with a few weak shortwaves
and intermittent lake enhanced showers remaining possible
through Wednesday. Heights look to rise Tuesday through
Wednesday with temperatures starting to moderate back into the
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

A mix of MVFR and VFR CIGs with cloud heights between 2.5-3.5kft
across obs sites is expected to continue for the next several hours
with gradual improvement to VFR for all areas expected by this
afternoon. Light NNW/N/NNE winds around 5 kts are expected today
into tonight. Precip-free weather is also anticipated for most of
today before lake effect snow chances move in this evening across
northwest lower and eastern upper. Chances will continue through the
issuance period with associated MVFR CIGs working in later tonight.
Accumulations of 1" or more will be possible at TVC by 12Z
Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC