964
FXUS63 KAPX 202350
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
650 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers/drizzle through this evening.

- Low end rain/snow chances late Saturday/Saturday night.

- Watching potential for more wet weather Tuesday before turning
  colder and potentially snowier toward Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure sits
across northern Manitoba this afternoon with an attendant ~1001mb
surface low pressure centered over northern Ontario. Cold front tied
to this system trails south across the central/western U.P., into
northern WI, and farther west into the Plains. That boundary crosses
APX`s footprint this evening through tonight. Not a huge post-
frontal cooldown for Friday, but lingering troughing overhead and
potential for embedded subtle wave(s) along with H8 temps falling to
-5 to -8 C over the tip of the mitt and eastern upper may provide
enough support for additional isolated to scattered rain/snow
showers, despite a dearth of moisture.

Forecast Details: Drizzle/rain shower chances exist through the
remainder of the daylight hours into this evening. The highest
chances for most numerous showers will remain focused across far
northern areas -- tied closer to better forcing/moisture (which
really lies even farther north into Ontario). Certainly not a big
QPF-maker by any stretch, with chances waning by late evening into
the overnight hours.

By late tonight - early Friday morning, start to cool the column
enough to introduce snow shower chances back into the forecast --
primarily where over-lake instability sufficiently increases post-
frontal.  Primary area for this is across parts of the eastern U.P.
and to a lesser extent over the typical interior areas of
northern/northwest lower. Again, this doesn`t appear to be a big
deal either given increasingly dry air above a shrinking inversion
really limiting much of this activity. A general drying trend
continues Friday afternoon with highs in the low 40s area-wide.

Southwest winds continue this afternoon, breezy at times, especially
near the shorelines. Winds weaken and veer more westerly with time
through the overnight hours. A touch breezy again Friday again.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Pattern Forecast: By late Friday night into Saturday morning, mid-
level shortwave ridging is expected to be sliding into the western
Great Lakes, with attendant sfc high pressure centered nearby/
overhead. These features quickly ushered east in advance of a
shortwave trough dropping southeast across central Canada. This wave
may support isentropically driven rain/snow showers later
Saturday/Saturday night before high pressure returns to wrap up the
weekend into the start of next week. Focus really turns toward the
middle of next week as there`s good ensemble agreement for storm
potential somewhere across the nation`s midsection -- with a trend
toward colder weather for the second half of the week, potentially
increasing chances for snow during at least a part of the busy
Thanksgiving travel period.

Day 2-3 (Fri. night through Saturday): Tranquil conditions expected
Friday night through much of Saturday. Low end rain/snow shower
chances arrive late in the day Saturday into Saturday night,
especially across far northern areas tied closer to better pockets
of forcing.

Day 4-7 (Sunday - Wednesday): A dry and increasingly "mild" stretch
of weather anticipated Sunday and Monday with high temps in the mid-
upper 40s for most. Chances for wet weather increase as early as
Tuesday as longer range trends point toward a strengthening storm
system across the middle of the country. As expected, lots of
uncertainties with respect to the details at day 6-7+, but potential
is certainly there for a return to colder/more snowy weather on the
backside of this system mid-late next week. A time frame that`ll
certainly be worth monitoring closely given potential for impacts to
busy holiday travel.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

IFR or low-end MVFR conditions in stratus/fog expected tonight
across the northern Michigan terminals as a weak system crosses
the area. This system will be accompanied by drizzle or light
rain showers which should wane once the cold front associated
with the system passes through tonight. Can`t rule out some
light lake effect precipitation in the shallow unstable layer
behind the front, but this should be a minimal threat. South to
southwest winds ahead of the front this evening will trend
west-northwest behind the front, becoming gusty at times
especially after daybreak.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344-345.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...PBB