940
FXUS63 KAPX 011011
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
611 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Gales of November likely to arrive early, Sunday night
  into Monday.

- Otherwise, a few light rain showers remain possible today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridging over the western US...and longwave troughing encompassing
most of the eastern US. Upper low and attendant sub-1000mb surface
low out over the Northeast; wraparound moisture across Quebec on the
back side of this is fading as negative-theta-e advection takes over
and drier air oozes southward...with upper ridge over Ontario to our
north. Deformation axis/col-region-y feature stretches across the
Upper Great Lakes...between these latter features...and upper low
slowly swirling over the Upper Midwest...with some semblance of a
trough axis stretching from Nebraska to northeast IA/SW MN...and
eastward through northern/central Michigan. Generally
north/northeasterly surface flow behind this (albeit also generally
light...5-10kts or less). 850mb temps below zero C across the bulk
of the Midwest, and
-8C air just barely starting to ooze into northern Lake Superior as
of 4z with that cooler, drier air. A few rain showers/sprinkles
still trying to hang on over the area.

Dry advection ultimately expected to win out over the Upper Great
Lakes today...as ridging builds into the region. Subtle PV maxima
slides south across the area this afternoon...with more ridging to
follow for tonight. Temps aloft expected to remain cool enough
today/tonight for overlake instability to remain in place...though
winds will not be terribly strong today with high pressure building
in. Expectation is a seasonably cool fall day (highs in the 40s)
with a few showers around; flow backs from north this morning to
more NW/WNW tonight...likely spreading partly cloudy skies across
the region this afternoon into tonight...perhaps with a few light
showers? Especially focused near the lakeshores with potential for
land breeze development. High pressure in place tonight could
certainly allow for temps to fall rather quickly...leading to
another night of hard freeze conditions for most.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:

Shower potential today/tonight...A few showers could linger into the
morning hours...though the bulk of the activity associated with the
subtle trough should be just to our south by 12z...leaving us at the
whims of largely north-flow lake effect, which should confine most
of the activity (and clouds) to the coasts. This being
said...backing winds this afternoon should shift the focus of lake
influences a little further inland through the afternoon and
especially tonight as winds become more westerly, to perhaps
southwesterly by Sunday morning...though with flow largely remaining
below 20kts through 850mb...not expecting things to make it terribly
far inland. Guidance soundings suggest the possibility of some low-
level cape near the coasts, which could signal the potential for a
few waterspouts with any showers. For now...think it will be warm
enough for most areas to remain rain/mostly rain...though will not
be surprised if a few flakes mix their way in in spots, particularly
later in the day, as thermal profiles start to get cold enough to
support snow in some of the colder locales (interior higher
terrain...perhaps the EUP).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Days 2-3 (Sunday-Monday)...

Strong low pressure crosses central Canada Sunday...dragging warmer
air into the region for Sunday/Sunday night...along with stronger
winds. Temperatures ultimately to fall behind an attendant cold
front Monday...with winds turning W/NW behind this, with a general
drying trend looking to take place going into Monday night...though
we will still flirt with overlake instability through the period,
such that it may not be entirely quiet behind this system.

Gales possible Sunday night into Monday...Strong pressure gradient
expected on the southern end of surface low passing to our north
Sunday night...supportive of sustained winds of 15-20kts over the
Great Lakes waters. Guidance that is a little more
aggressive/quicker in digging a lobe on the southern end of the
trough strengthens the pressure gradient further, potentially enough
to support sustained winds around 30kts on the northern
Lakes/western Lake Superior, including Whitefish Bay. Low-level jet
looks to ramp up to at least 40kts, even at 925mb...and while this
is a warm advection setup, think the lake surface is still warm
enough to support downward momentum transfer to achieve at least
gale gusts. Probabilistic guidance currently showing higher
confidence in gales (50-80 percent chance), esp for near-Lake-
Michigan sites (MBL, TVC, PLN)...and would not be surprised to see
this bleed over into Whitefish Bay/Northern Lake Huron. Certainly
possible we could see gales continue into Monday night with cold
advection on the backside of the front...and probabilistic guidance
does indicate a subtle uptick in winds Monday night, but is
struggling on the magnitude of these latter winds attm.

Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday)...

Expect largely zonal flow for the start of the extended on
Tuesday...with most of the activity in the northern stream across
Canada/international border. As upstream pattern amplifies...will
expect pressure falls across the central US with a bit of energy
trying to poke into the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Quite a bit of uncertainty attm in how this evolves, particularly in
timing and how well a disturbance across the central Plains connects
with disturbance across Canada...and more progressive guidance likes
the idea of the bulk of the activity with this staying to our
south... though general expectation is for pressure falls/subtle
troughing to cross the Great Lakes at some point Tuesday night into
Wednesday...with pressure rises on tap for mid-late week. Not that
this will totally quiet things down...as northwest flow this time of
year indicates some potential for lake-induced clouds and perhaps
showers...but the extent of this will likely depend on how strong
high pressure ends up over us. Beyond this...looking for another
disturbance to cross the western/central US for late
week...signaling potential for a warm up for the Midwest, but also a
period of active weather to end the first full week of November.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Rain showers look to continue at times across areas near Grand
Traverse Bay and south along the Lake Michigan shoreline today,
gradually diminishing into tonight. These showers may impact TVC and
MBL at times, but significant VSBY restrictions are not anticipated.
Prevailing VFR CIGs are likely across northwest lower, including TVC
and MBL, with temporary drops to MVFR possible this morning into
this afternoon. CIGs look to gradually rise with time through the
day, and steady VFR conditions are currently expected from late this
afternoon/evening through the remainder of the issuance period.
North-northwest winds around 5 kts will be in place today before
going calm for many areas tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     LHZ345-346.
     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...DJC