848
FXUS63 KAPX 301913
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
213 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake induced snow showers continue tonight for some.

- Watching potential for brief lake enhanced snow event later Monday
into Monday evening.

- Periodic snow chances continue for the remainder of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Low pressure continues to make steady northeast progress vicinity
the North Channel early this afternoon...taking most widespread
deformation/isentropic upglide driven snow east along with it. Post-
low cold air advection regime helping kick off some lake-induced
snow showers...with the primary target areas across parts of
northwest lower Michigan within north-northwest low level flow
regime.

Low pressure and parent mid level wave will continue to make steady
east progress...with shortwave mid level ridging building into and
through the region later tonight into Monday morning. Rapid-fire
northwest flow regime continues however, with next wave and
attendant surface trough set to work into the region later Monday
into Monday night.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Addressing lingering lake snow concerns into this evening, with
focus shifting to development of lake enhanced snow by later Monday
into Monday night.

Details:

While lingering widespread snows will quickly come to an end heading
into the remainder of this afternoon, still looking at a brief
window for some lake snows to rotate into the traditional snowbelts
of both eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan into this
evening. Window for any appreciable lake response will be a short
one, with quick loss of any synoptic moisture contribution and
steadily lowering convective cloud depths with increased subsidence
via that approaching ridging. Probably looking at a few inches
additional snow where better banding sets-up. Definitely not a big
deal, but given still some lingering gusty winds, will no doubt
continue some travel difficulties in those snowbelt regions. Expect
both snow organization and intensity to steadily decrease overnight
as drying and subsidence further mature.

Low level flow becomes decidedly more southwest on Monday ahead of
that next wave and weak surface reflection. While the upstream low
level environment will be a dry one and convective depths remain
shallow, simple magnitude of the over-water thermal environment will
continue to support some scattered light lake-driven southwest flow
snow showers. Otherwise, dry and seasonably chilly weather will
continue. Conditions begin to change by later Monday into Monday
evening with arrival of deeper synoptic moisture and some weak large
scale ascent. While overall convective depths are not overly robust,
seeder feeder processes from a moisture rich mid level environment
should at least theoretically support a more organized lake snow
response. Target area will be centered within the Lake Michigan
collar counties of northwest lower Michigan...with perhaps greater
emphasis on Emmet County where low level convergence appears to be
maximized. Window for better snows is a relatively short one, which
should help throttle back on overall snow amounts. Still, could
easily see at least a few inches in those areas...perhaps just
enough to force another set of winter weather related headlines at
some future forecast update. Expect some lighter nuisance type snows
with passage of shortwave across the rest of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Somewhat active upper level flow regime set to continue through the
duration. Though currently not seeing any direct Gulf of America
moisture advection into passing waves, attendant deep forcing and
maintenance of a respectable over-water thermal gradient will
continue to support periodic snow chances through the period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing additional snow concerns through
Sunday.

Details:

Per the usual in such an environment, exact details with regards to
additional snow evolution and amounts are lacking. With that said,
decent agreement that next slug of forcing and attendant rather
vigorous shot of reinforcing cold air looks to arrive Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Again, overall moisture profiles are lacking, but
breadth of forcing and continued lake moisture flux will support
additional snow showers...most organized in our traditional lake
prone areas. While again, much to early to nail down specific snow
totals...two areas of concern are within pre-frontal southwest flow
lake enhanced potential off northern Lake Michigan Wednesday morning
and post-frontal northwest flow event later Wednesday into Wednesday
night/Thursday morning (with the latter especially focused across
eastern upper Michigan). Thursday looks downright chilly...even for
early December...with some areas likely not getting out of the teens
for high temperatures (gusty northwest winds will of course make it
feel several degrees colder yet), and lows Thursday night likely
dipping into the single digits away from those big waters.

Looks like another fast moving wave(s) arrives toward the end of the
week into the weekend, with temperatures again supporting more lake
enhanced snow potential along with it (them). And with temperatures
expected to remain below freezing through the period...definitely
looks like a pretty decent start to the outdoor winter activity
season across much of the Northwoods. Get out and enjoy it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Expect transition to N/NNW flow lake effect showers this afternoon,
most intense likely at MBL and TVC after 21z with IFR/LIFR
cigs/visbys, with blowing snow likely. Possible we could see another
uptick in activity near CIU/APN/PLN late afternoon into early
evening. Winds N/NNW this afternoon 15-25kts sustained, gusting 25-
35kts but should dwindle this evening/tonight...likely becoming
light/variable (5kt or less) before turning around to the SW Monday
morning. Additional light snow showers possible, esp PLN/CIU Monday
morning. Most sites MVFR to VFR after 0-3z. Possible some fog/low
clouds could develop at APN after 5z...have hinted at this with
SCT005 in tafs overnight, less likely elsewhere.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...FEF