834
FXUS63 KAPX 010727
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
302 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable to seasonably warm today, warming trend begins Thurs.

- Warm to very warm Friday into the weekend.

- Dry conditions through this weekend for most, with some
  concern for elevated fire danger at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Sfc high pressure to the north continues to influence the region
today and tonight, slowly sliding southeast with time from the
Ontario Quebec border today into southern Quebec by tonight. Thus,
winds turn to the southeast through the period. "Coolest" portion of
the airmass filters in today, with high temperatures in the 60s and
70s across northern MI, coolest adjacent to the Lake Huron shoreline
and warmest down by Grand Traverse Bay and southwest. Upper
ridge axis and height anomalies will follow the eastward
progression through the period as well. Consequent of the
subsidence aloft and dry sfc conditions, precipitation free
weather will persist. Decent amount of high level clouds to
move in today as well, adding some flavor to the sky.

Conceptually, tonight should be the coolest night given the old rule
of thumb of the second night after a cold front will be the coldest
(or something like that, maybe its an old wives tail moreso...).
Nevertheless, temperatures do drop tonight to some extent,
perhaps dipping into the 30s across the favored colder areas
(lower river valleys, lower spots within hilly terrain, etc).
Certainly a spread within guidance though, with one conflicting
concern being the amount of high cloud cover that hangs around into
the overnight hours and retards the cooling process. If the coldest
temperatures are realized, a few locations may experience patchy
frost. Will let the next shift take a closer look.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Day 2-7 (Thursday - Tuesday):

Warming trend begins on Thursday as sfc high pressure shifts across
the interior Northeast. Thus, winds shift southerly with
temperatures back in the 70s most areas. Dry conditions remain as
upper ridging holds across the Great Lakes region. On Friday,
warming really begins to take shape with southwest low level flow
and ridging failing to relinquish its hold on the region. There
will be a diffuse and moisture starved boundary, along with
some warm advection, extending from a low pressure system well
to the north in Canada. In theory this may try to produce some
non zero changes for a light shower or two Friday and Friday
night. Not a big concern either way and most if not all areas
remain dry.

The pattern this weekend will feature the upper ridge axis
moving to the east across the East Coast, and a couple pieces of
energy riding across the northern periphery of that ridge. And
so, there could be a few light showers that try to sneak into
eastern upper, mainly early in the weekend, but most if not all
of the area will be dry. Warmth continues as well, with some
locations within a few degrees of record high temperatures on
Saturday (temps in the mid 80s). Pressure gradient begins to
increase, especially on Sunday as a more robust trough and low
pressure deepens across the Plains and into Ontario. Thus,
breezy conditions are anticipated.

Additional troughing sweeps by to the north in Canada ~early to
mid next week behind the previous system, with a frontal
boundary working into northern Michigan. Temperatures will turn
more seasonable as a result. Precipitation potential will exist
along this frontal boundary as well, but to what degree remains
to be seen.

Combination of warm temperatures and a relatively dry airmass will
lead to several days of afternoon humidity in the 30s (lower in some
cases) Thursday into the weekend. Thus, we`ll have to monitor for
elevated fire danger, especially this weekend, and more
specifically on Sunday, as a low pressure system wraps up to
our northwest and winds become breezy.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Only concern is a round of low level wind shear early this
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected under some
increasing high level clouds. No significant wind concerns
through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LHZ348-
     349.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MSB