221
FXUS63 KARX 151107
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
500 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day with above-normal temperatures and then more
  seasonable temperatures for next week.

- Low chance of rain showers (up to 20%) north of Wisconsin 29
  this morning.

- Rain and snow showers possible (30 to 60%) from Monday
  afternoon into Tuesday afternoon. Highest precipitation
  accumulations will be south of Interstate 94.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today

As a cold front moves southeast into the area this morning, it
will produce isolated to scattered showers primarily north of
Wisconsin 29. As it continues to move further southeast, it will
encounter a progressively drier and drier air mass, so not
anticipating any showers across the remainder of the area. High
temperatures along and north of Interstate 90 will be in the
60s. Elsewhere, temperatures will range from around 60 to the
mid-60s. High temperatures typically range from the lower to
mid-40s in mied-November.

Sunday

While afternoon relative humidities will be in the 20s and 30s
on Sunday, the northwest winds will be on the light side (less
than 10 mph). This will greatly limit any fire weather concerns.
High temperatures will be seasonable with high temperatures in
the lower and mid-40s.

Monday Afternoon in Tuesday Afternoon

The ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles are fairly similar with
their tracks of a low pressure system moving through the region.
86% of the Grand Ensemble has up to a tenth of an inch of
precipitation north of Interstate 94 and from a tenth to two
tenths of an inch of rain across the remainder area. The
remaining 14% of the members have stronger surface low which
results in the average of those models being up to a third of an
inch south of Interstate 94. Temperatures aloft will be cool
enough that there will be the potential for some snow may mix in
at times. The Grand Ensemble shows little, if any, snow from
this system. A few of the BUFKIT soundings north of Interstate
94 show a loss of ice aloft on Monday night. If this occurred,
there would be some light freezing rain. Confidence was far too
low to add this to forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

CIGS: BKN high level VFR will clear east this morning leaving
SCT/SKC conditions for the afternoon through tonight.

WX/vsby: sfc trough then a cold front sweep across the area this
morning. Saturation is very limited, evidenced in RAP/HRRR bufkit
soundings and satellite/sfc obs, that pcpn production will be
difficult south of I-94. Will keep TAFs dry with next shot for pcpn
likely holding off until Mon night.

WINDS: winds will be on the increase by mid to late morning with the
passage of the cold front. Mix down in the short term guidance
pushes mid/upper 20 kts for gusts. Gust die down with the loss of
daytime heating but sustained likely to hover near 10 kts through
the night.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION.....Rieck