179
FXUS63 KARX 261734
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1134 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow and strong wind gusts of 45+ mph continue this morning
  with slippery travel, blowing snow, and reduced visibilities
  at times. Snow tapers to flurries southwest to northeast this
  afternoon into the evening. Snow amounts of 1-3" are expected
  for areas along and north of I-90, between 2-4" north of
  I-94.

- Cold temperatures arrive today, lingering through at least
  early next week with high temperatures struggling to reach
  above freezing.

- Quieter conditions are expected for Thanksgiving day,
  although some scattered snow showers are possible in the
  afternoon (10-20%) across western into central Wisconsin.

- Confidence continues to increase regarding another winter
  system impacting the region late Friday through Saturday,
  likely affecting post-Thanksgiving travel. Keep up-to-date on
  the forecast if traveling this weekend!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Snow and Strong Wind Gusts This Morning

The impressive winter system situated over the Upper Midwest
with the surface low pressure center currently located over
northern Wisconsin remains the main driver of today`s weather.

Snow continues for most through the morning hours with
accumulations expected primarily along and north of I-90. Not
much change regarding the expected amounts, with a general 1-3"
expected for most with areas north of I-94 expected to receive
2-4". However, northern Taylor county could see upwards of 5"
based on the 26.00z HREF LPMM when adjusted for expected snow
ratios of ~15:1. Slippery travel is expected for areas that see
accumulating snowfall through the morning hours.

The tight pressure gradient associated with the surface low has
swung into our area early this morning with VWPs at ARX and MPX
indicating 40-60kts of wind in the lowest 2kft. These winds are
efficiently translating to the surface under 850hPa cold air
advection as gusts upwards of 50mph have been observed along and
west of the Mississippi River. With the gusty winds, blowing
snow will reduce visibilities primarily in open areas.

Conditions begin to improve this afternoon into the evening
hours as the low continues northeastward, with snowfall tapering
off to flurries from southwest to northeast. However, winds
remain breezy into the overnight hours as 925-850hPa winds of
30-40kts remain situated over the region. Steepened low level
lapse rates should continue to translate this higher momentum to
the surface with gusts of 30-40 mph possible, highlighted in
the 26.00z HREF.

Cold Temperatures Through

Cold air advection on the backside of the system moving through
the region will drop temperatures quickly this morning, falling
below freezing for most. With northwest flow aloft situated
over the Upper Midwest through the weekend with little in the
way of ridging/warm air advection and additional shots of cold
air, confidence is high in regards to temperatures remaining
cold for the foreseeable future. The 26.01z NBM mean high
temperatures struggle to reach above freezing across the upper
Mississippi River Valley through the beginning of December.

Thanksgiving Day

Quieter conditions are expected across the region for
Thanksgiving day as high pressure sinks southeastward across the
central United States. High temperatures only reach the mid to
upper 20s while breezy winds with gusts of 20-30mph remain
possible as stronger low level winds remain overhead. This
should lead to apparent temperatures topping out in the teens.

During the late morning into the afternoon hours, steepened
0-2km lapse rates combined with weak 0-3km instability and
saturation into the DGZ across western into central Wisconsin
should lead to the development of some scattered snow showers
(10-20%), although snow amounts will be low, only a few tenths
at most.

Another Winter System This Weekend

After today`s winter system, attention turns towards the
weekend as confidence continues to increase regarding another
winter storm impacting Upper Midwest. A 500hPa shortwave trough
traversing the intermountain west on Friday will promote surface
cyclogenesis across the central Great Plains throughout the
day. This surface low pressure system begins moving northward,
reaching the Upper Midwest late Friday. Snow appears likely
across our area with PoPs of 70-90% in the 26.01z NBM. Focusing
on the 26.01z NBM, probabilities for impactful snowfall have
been increasing over the past 24 hours. Current probabilities
for 6+ and 9+ inches of snow across our area sit at 60-80% and
40-60%, respectively, an stark increase from 24 hours ago.

The main point of uncertainty regarding this system is what its
track is ultimately going to be. This detail will impact where
the heaviest snowfall eventually occurs. Given we`re still a
few days out, changes are likely to occur. However, wherever the
heaviest snow does fall, impacts to post-Thanksgiving travel is
expected, so make sure you stay up-to-date with the forecast
over the next few days!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Light snow continues to fall primarily across western Wisconsin
and is expected to linger into the early afternoon. Northwest
winds sustained at 25 to 35 mph with gusts between 35 and 45 mph
will continue through the afternoon. These winds will gradually
diminish overnight, however will still be sustained between 10
and 20 mph for Thursday morning. Reduced visibilities due to the
falling snow and blowing snow at times, will continue into the
afternoon. These conditions along with low CIGS (between 1500
and 2500ft) continue to create lowered flight categories in the
MVFR to IFR range. After the snow exits the area, MVFR CIGS are
expected to hang around through most if not all of the TAF
period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ032-033.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for
     WIZ017-029-034-041>044-053.
MN...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ088-096.
IA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Cecava