312
FXUS63 KARX 190922
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
210 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of drizzle tonight - Thu morning...more likely
north of I-90. Temperatures look too warm at this time for a
freezing threat.

- Fairly quiet the rest of the week with a smattering of low end
rain chances (20%) and at/above normal temps.

- Potential change in the upper level flow next week could allow for
a more active weather pattern when it comes to rain/snow chances
along with cooler, but aligned with seasonable norms for temps.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

> TONIGHT-THU MORNING: drizzle chances

Relatively deep low level saturation (3.5+ kft per RAP/HRRR
soundings and time/height x-sections) progged to hold through
tonight and much of Thu. The RAP suggests isentropic upglide on the
280:290K sfcs late this evening through Thu morning, all ahead of a
shortwave troughs in northern/southern portions of the upper level
flow. While the local area isn`t expected to get under the direct
influence of these upper level features, the low level
thermodynamics + deep low saturation could/would be enough to
produce patchy to areas of drizzle. GFS/NAM shows similar lift while
QPF in the NAM gives a "speckled" outlay - decent indicator for
drizzle. Have added low end (20-30%) chances for drizzle right now,
but it could become more widespread if the low level lift increases.
At this time, sfc temps don`t show much threat for freezing - but
something to keep an eye on, mainly north of I-94.


> REST OF THE WEEK: trending dry and seasonable to mild for temps

Progressive, spilt upper level flow suggests a fairly benign weather
pattern for the region. The GEFS and EPS work to shuffle the bulk of
the shortwave troughs north and south of the local forecast area.
The few weak perturbations that do manage to ripple through are
lacking in deep saturation. Won`t rule out some low end
precipitation chances (20%) here and there - with temps favoring
rain - but no impactful storms on the near horizon.

After a seasonable day today, temps on track to take a few degree
bump warmer for the rest of the week with upper level height rises
and an uptick in low level warming. GEFS and EPS members layout 50
to 90+% chances for highs of 50+ from around I-90 south Thu-Sun -
with Friday being the coolest of the days (cooler air post a passing
trough to the north).


> NEXT WEEK: GEFS and EPS are trending toward developing a more
dominant northwest flow a loft. Temps would likely fall back to the
seasonable norms in this scenarios while shortwave will have more of
a direct path to spin across the upper mississippi river valley -
and better shots for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Aviation impacts expected through the 19.06Z TAF period with MVFR
visibilities and IFR ceilings observed at TAF issuance.
Diurnal cooling decreasing flight rules overnight into early
Wednesday morning causing further concerns. Have decreased KRST TAF
into LIFR ceilings and IFR visibilities by 10Z for 06Z issuance
however may require further amendments based on ongoing observations.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for WIZ017-029-
     043-044.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION.....JAR