523
FXUS63 KARX 221833
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1233 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will provide dry weather and unseasonably warm
  temperatures through Sunday Night.

- Between a tenth and 4 tenths of an inch of rain expected from
  Monday night into Tuesday.

- Rain will change to snow on Tuesday night and continue into
  Wednesday. While there is a consensus that will occur, the
  amounts remain uncertain due to uncertainties on the southern
  extent of the shortwave trough.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

From Tonight through Sunday Night

High pressure will be control of the weather through Sunday
night. High temperatures will be well above normal (normal
temperatures are around 40 degrees) ranging from the mid-40s to
mid-50s on Sunday. Low temperatures will range from the mid-20s
to lower 30s tonight and from the mid-20s to mid-30s on Sunday
night.

Monday Night through Tuesday

The models in the Grand Ensemble are in good agreement that a trough
will move northeast through the region. Soundings show that the air
mass will be sufficiently warm enough for this precipitation to fall
as rain. There is good consensus in the Grand Ensemble clusters that
the 10th percentile is around a tenth of an inch. Meanwhile, the
90th percentile ranges from a third to 4 tenths of an inch.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday

The models have come to more of a consensus that the northern and
southern streams will remain separate. They have also trended toward
a stronger northern stream shortwave. The main difference in the
clusters is the amplitude of this trough. This impacts the southern
extent of the measurable snow in the region from late Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The cluster with the strongest shortwave trough,
which makes up 9% of the Grand Ensemble, produces up to 1 inch south
of Interstate 90 and between 1 and 3 inches across the remainder of
the area. Meanwhile, the other clusters are further north and
slightly weaker. Their snow totals are up to 1 inch north of
Interstate 90 and little, if any, for the remainder of the area.

Thanksgiving

With some cyclonic flow aloft, it looks like there will be partly to
mostly cloudy skies and scattered flurries on Thanksgiving. The
highest probabilities for seeing these flurries will be in
north-central and central Wisconsin.

High temperatures will range from around 30 to the mid-30s. This is
5 to 10 degrees colder than normal for late November. Last
Thanksgiving (November 28), we had high temperatures in the mid- and
upper 20s.

Low temperatures will be around 20 degrees. This is 5 to 10 degrees
colder than normal for late November. Last Thanksgiving (November
28), we had low temperatures in the mid-teens.

With west winds at 10 to 15 mph, wind chills will start the day in
the 5 to 15 degree range and from 10 to 20 degrees during the day.

Black Friday

While the models are in general agreement that a ridge of high
pressure will build across the area on Black Friday. The
location of this axis is somewhat uncertain and this could
potentially result in some snow as a shortwave trough moves
southeast along the western periphery of this ridge from the
Northern Plains.

High temperatures will range from around 30 to the mid-30s. This is
5 to 10 degrees colder than normal. During last year`s Black Friday
(November 29), we had high temperatures ranging from mid-teens to
mid-20s. During 5 out of the last 7 Black Fridays, high temperatures
have been in the 20s and 30s.

Low temperatures will be in the mid- and upper teens. This will be
10 to 15 degrees colder than normal. During last year`s Black Friday
(November 29), we had low temperatures ranging from 5 to 15 degrees.
During the past 4 out 5 Black Fridays, low temperatures have ranged
from 5 to 15 degrees.

With west and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph, the wind chills will
be very close to the actual air temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Scattered to broken clouds in the 10-15 kft layer will continue
through this evening but skies should eventually clear tonight
before some clouds around 15 kft return tomorrow. In any case,
ceilings should remain VFR over the next TAF period.
Additionally, am doubtful that fog/stratus that affected areas
along the WI River and limited portions of the Mississippi,
including PDC/OVS, will return tonight given the drier air
moving in with the northwesterly winds.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Ferguson