


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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672 FXUS63 KARX 161054 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 554 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - On and off showers into Saturday night. Rainfall amounts of up to an through Saturday night possible. - Warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend with the warmest day being Friday where the highs will be in the 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Today through tonight Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over central United States and a weak shortwave trough overtopping the upper level ridge over northern Iowa/southern Minnesota. Per mosaic radar...showers and a few storms were occurring over northern/central Iowa in association with the shortwave trough. The shortwave trough will lift northeast across the forecast area today. Moisture transport/convergence and weak forcing will continue to allow showers to overspread the forecast area. Preciptable water values of 1 to 1.5 inches remain over the forecast area today. Given the weak forcing QPF amounts may produce up to a third of an inch rainfall across parts of the forecast area through this evening. Latest 16.00z NAM indicate 200 j/kg of 0-6km most unstable CAPE across the region. A few storms will be possible embedded in the showers. As shortwave trough moves northeast...warmer air aloft advects into the area and 925mb temperatures warm to plus 10 to plus 18 degrees celsius by 00z Friday. High temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 50s across north central Wisconsin to the lower 70s across parts of northeast Iowa/southeast Minnesota. Friday into Saturday Upper level ridge builds east and upper level closed low over the Rocky Mountains lifts northeast into southern Ontario/Manitoba Canada. Impulses embedded in the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper level closed low/trough will be the focused for ongoing on/off showers mainly Friday afternoon into Saturday. The latest 16.00z NAM/GFS shows narrow axis of up to 200 j/kg of 0-6km most unstable CAPE. An isolated or a few storms will be possible Friday afternoon/evening across parts of the forecast area. Much of the moisture convergence and vertical motion moves east of the forecast area Saturday. However...some lingering moisture and lift could produce some showers across the far eastern areas of the forecast area. With the southerly flow aloft ahead of the upper level closed low/trough...warmer air filters into the region Friday. 925mb temperatures continue to warm and be plus 18 to plus 20 degrees celsius by 00z Saturday. Temperatures will remain above normal for both Friday into Saturday. With the warmest day Friday highs are expected to climb into the middle to upper 70s with slightly cooler highs Saturday in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Sunday through Wednesday Main forecast concerns Sunday through Wednesday are rain chances through the forecast period. An active weather pattern continues from late this weekend into middle of next week. The latest 16.00z deterministic and ensemble models are in decent agreement through late this weekend moving upper level trough/low east of the Great Lakes/Midwest Region. Upper level ridge amplifying over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest will allow for diminishing precipitation chances west to east across the forecast area Sunday. Brief period of dry weather is expected Monday...as upper level ridge builds into the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest Region Monday. Then...the deterministic/ensembles diverge on the strength of the upper level closed low/trough middle of next week. Some of the ensemble members indicate upper level trough closes off over southern Ontario Canada by 00z Wednesday. Pieces of energy rotating around upper level trough/closed low will provide chances of rain across the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures Sunday into Wednesday will remain near or slightly above normal with lows mainly in the middle 30s to lower 40s and highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Poor aviation conditions at issuance with MVFR to LIFR stratus and visibility reductions due to light rain and/or fog should improve over the next 6-12 hours as ceilings lift from south to north. There is a small (10%) chance for thunder around RST early in the period, too low for a mention in the TAF. After 00z Friday, low level jet develops and with some difference in direction between this and the southerly winds at the surface, low-level wind shear looks to develop overnight. Should expected wind speeds at the surface increase, then this risk would fall below the threshold for a mention but have included it in the TAFs. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DTJ AVIATION...Ferguson