456
FXUS63 KARX 121925
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
125 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- For those watching for the aurora tonight, high clouds move
  through and could impact viewing conditions, mainly in
  northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin.

- Warming temperatures through Friday night before a cold front
  arrives Saturday morning, sending temperatures back to around
  average for next week.

- Mainly dry forecast through the weekend--sans low rain chances
  Saturday--with the next chance of widespread precipitation
  coming Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Tonight: Passing High Clouds for Aurora Watchers

Another round of the aurora is forecast for later today into
tonight as the third and largest in a trio of CMEs slams into
Earth. For the local area, the only weather-related concern for
viewing any aurora will come in the form of high clouds
streaming off the Rockies in conjunction with a 80-kt
subtropical jet streak. However, current satellite imagery shows
the leading edge of this cirrus band eroding as it works into
the Dakotas (reflected in the latest HRRR forecasts), giving
hope that skies will be mostly clear area-wide just after sunset
for any early aurora watching. As we go through the night, the
short-range guidance still shows the higher cirrostratus
building northward and encompassing the entire area by sunrise.
However, if trends hold, areas along and north of a Red Wing, MN
to La Crosse, WI to Wisconsin Dells, WI line may have excellent
viewing conditions through midnight.

Rest of the Week: Warm and Dry

A continued warming trend is in store for the rest of the week as
longwave ridging builds across the central CONUS. Lower tropospheric
temperatures steadily rise to +15-16C by Friday evening,
resulting in high temperatures on Friday topping out in the
upper 50s to low 60s. A northern stream wave races along the
U.S./Canadian border on Friday and ushers a cold front through
the region on Saturday morning. There still exists some
discrepancies with NBM members on the timing of this frontal
passage, which will play a role in how warm we get on Saturday
morning. Nevertheless, expect falling post-frontal temperatures
by Saturday afternoon as polar air plunges south. Still can`t
rule out light showers with the passage of the front Saturday
morning (10-20% chance), but impacts look to be negligible at
best.

Early Next Week: Cooler, Rain/Snow Mix Mon/Tue

The only precipitation of note for the start of next week is tied to
a vort lobe ejecting under the base of a synoptic ridge. The
longer range solutions still have a wide spread on the
trajectory of this system, but these has been a notable increase
in LREF members that bring precipitation to the region with its
passage. Given that the region will be on the north side of the
precipitation shield, a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out,
though trends in the thermal profiles are favoring a cold rain
over snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period with
northwesterly winds of 10-20G15-25kts this afternoon becoming
light tonight and backing to the south at around 5-10 kts by
midday on Thursday. VFR conditions continue through the
afternoon on Thursday and into Friday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skow
AVIATION...Skow