786
FXUS63 KARX 110538
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1138 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few flurries, scattered snow showers overnight. Minimal impacts

- Warming through the week with Saturday the warmest (10% shot for
70+ degree highs along/south of I-90)

- Rain showers return Saturday into Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

> TONIGHT-TUESDAY: flurries?

Distinct shortwave trough on latest watervapor imagery over the PAC
NW will spin southeast tonight with short term guidance suggesting
it becomes a bit less defined as it tracks over the upper
mississippi river valley overnight/Tue morning. Good bit of north-
south running low level thermodynamics precedes the shortwave across
the region, evidenced by isentropic upglide along the 285:295K
surfaces between 06-12z. Narrow band of Fgen in the 700:600 mb layer
too. Decent amount of forcing for pcpn production - if there is
enough saturation. And that`s the sticking point.

Bufkit soundings in the RAP/HRRR/NAM/GFS all depict a sizable dry
layer sub the initial mid level cloud bases (8+ kft), T/Td spread is
25 to 30+ C in a 6kft layer tonight. The low level warming will work
to saturate this layer, but how effective, and how low into the
atmosphere is not clear. The thermodynamics may just set the stage
for the shortwave, lowering cloud bases enough to allow for the
shortwave to squeeze out light snow and/or flurries. Experience says
forcing beats out apparent lack of saturation "every time",
especially if said forcing it moderate+. This feels like that kind
of scenario. The sensible weather outcomes are probably just some
flurries and perhaps a thin band of light snow. Minimal if any
accums or vsby restrictions.


> SECOND HALF TO THE WEEK: warming with highs topping 60+ Sat. Dry
into Friday with some rain chances for the weekend.

-OVERVIEW: No change in the GEFS and EPS with increasing heights
 through the rest of the work week. Amplifying west coast ridge
 then still on pace to slide its axis over the plains Thu, then
 the western great lakes by 12z Sat. This doesn`t stick around
 long as an upper level trough is already pressing in from the
 plains on Saturday. Considerable questions on whether
 shortwaves in the northern and southern streams of the flow
 interact before reaching the forecast area - which would
 deepen/shift storm track southward if they did, or be a
 northern stream, likely open wave dominant feature locally.
 Impacts to strength and timing of the system. WPC clusters show
 this well with a couple depicting a much stronger shortwave
 moving across the central US and the other 2 holding onto a
 "weaker" split flow. Either way, sensible weather favors rain
 chances - how much, where the higher chances would lie are
 unclear.

The long range guidance then shifts to more of a progressive upper
level flow moving into the next week, with shortwave troughs/ridges
alternating every couple days.

-TEMPERATURES: 850 mb temp anomalies already +1.5 to 2 Sat while
EFIs reach 0.7 to 0.8 with a non-zero SoT. Real good signals for
anomalous warmth at 6 days out. The upper 10% of the NBM paint 70+
degree highs along/south of I-90 Saturday. The lower 5% (the coldest
the models think it could get) is at or above the mid November
normals. Friday also looking very mild but could be as much as 10
degrees cooler compared to Sat. Rain chances Sat could mitigate some
of this expected warming.

Temperatures settle back post the trough Sunday, but the upper level
flow still trending more progressive for the following week. EPS and
GEFS still suggesting at/above normal temps as a result.

-PRECIPITATION CHANCES: as mentioned above, the next shot for
precipitation comes this weekend as a shortwave trough moves in from
the plains. Model differences in the evolution of the system lowers
predictability and confidence in the outlay of higher chances/qpf.
Some solutions would have a stronger fetch of southerly moisture
advection and a ribbon of instability reaching into southern
portions of the forecast area (thunder chances). Others hold this
south. Sensible weather outcomes still say there is a good to likely
shot for rain Sat into Sun. Will ride the model blend for chances
for now, but expect refinement to expectations as we move through
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A shortwave trough will move through the area overnight. It may
bring some scattered flurries and snow showers. Subsidence in
the wake of this wave will result in clearing skies. Another
wave this evening will bring another round of clouds. This time
they will be in the 3-6K range. There may be even MVFR ceilings
along and north of Interstate 94.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Boyne