297
FXUS63 KARX 060546
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1246 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More showers and maybe a few storms through tonight

- Frost Potential Tuesday and Wednesday Nights

- Additional showers and a few storms Thursday Night and from
  Sunday into Sunday Night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Today and Tonight - More Showers and Maybe Few Storms

A surface low will move northeast through the Mid Mississippi River
Valley into the Lower Great Lakes through tonight. As the 850-700 mb
frontogenesis increases, another round of showers and maybe a few
storms will move northeast through the region. High temperatures
will be more seasonable in the lower to mid-60s. The 05.00z HREF has
rainfall totals generally in the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range. Its 24-hour
QPF ensemble localized probability matched-matched mean even has a
few totals in the excess of 2 inches.

Tuesday and Wednesday Afternoons - Fire Weather

On both of these afternoons, the relative humidities will fall into
the 30s. Fortunately, the winds will be light (generally less than
10 mph).

Tuesday and Wednesday nights - Frost Potential

A 1035 mb high will move slowly southeast across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday night and over the Great Lakes
on Wednesday night. The coldest night looks to be on Tuesday night
when the NBM probabilities for areas of frost (35F or colder) will
be up to 15 percent west of the Mississippi River and from 10 to 85
percent probability across western Wisconsin. The highest
probabilities (60-85 percent) will be in central and north-central
Wisconsin.

On Wednesday night, there is a small (10 percent or less) chance of
areas of frost in north-central and central Wisconsin.

Thursday Night - Scattered Showers and Maybe a Few Storms

A cold front will move southeast through the region. There is enough
surface moisture convergence along the front for some scattered
showers. With a few models indicate that the 0-1 km mixed-layer
CAPES will climb up to 200 J/kg, there may be even a few storms.
With both the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear being weak (less than 20
knots), no organized severe weather is expected.

Sunday and Sunday Night - More Showers and Maybe a Few Storms

As a western US longwave trough moves east, southerly winds will
bring gulf moisture northward into the region. This will result in
showers and a few storms. There continues to be plenty of
uncertainty on the eastern extent of this activity.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Showers and maybe a storm will be seen at the KLSE TAF through
06.08z. Showers will then continue across southwest and central
Wisconsin through the remainder of tonight. As another surface
low moves northeast through the Mid Mississippi River Valley
into the Lower Great Lakes on Monday another round of showers
will impact the area from late morning into tonight.
While visibilities and ceilings will be primarily VFR, there
could be some brief periods of MVFR ceilings on Monday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Boyne