187
FXUS63 KARX 030915
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
315 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather concerns for this afternoon, primarily
  in Wisconsin.

- Seasonably warm for much of the week with cooler conditions
  for the weekend.

- Next chance of rain coming Thursday night, possibly mixing
  with snow over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Elevated Fire Danger Over Wisconsin this Afternoon

The combination of steepening low-level lapse rates in the wake
of last night`s cold frontal passage coupled with a seasonably
strong mid to upper tropospheric jet (winds of 100 kts at 500
mb) will create gusty winds this afternoon over Wisconsin.
HRRR/RAP forecast soundings show the boundary layer extending up
to around 5 kft for much of the afternoon with some potential
for it to briefly mix higher to 6-7 kft. Winds at the top of the
boundary layer of 30-40 kts should effectively mix downward,
resulting in wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph, strongest northeast of
I-94.

While surface temperatures will be only topping out in the 50s,
dewpoints descending into the mid to upper 20s should allow RH
values to fall to around 30 percent. While HREF probabilities
for 25% RH values are quite low (<10%), the deterministic CAM
soundings show large 25-30 C T/Td spreads at the top of the
boundary layer that could result in RH values nearing that 25%
mark in spots.

Dry and Warm Through Thursday

A quasi-zonal WNW flow undulates over the region through
midweek, bringing primarily quiet weather to the region. A trio
of shortwaves clip the region in roughly 24 hour intervals
between Tuesday and Thursday mornings, bringing an increase in
clouds but otherwise minimal weather impacts. The passage of the
Wednesday shortwave ushers a cold front southward, bringing
slightly cooler air for Wednesday and Thursday. However,
temperatures for today and Tuesday will be seasonably pleasant
with highs in the 50s to near 60.

Cooler and More Active to End the Week

An upstream blocking ridge breaks down late in the week,
allowing a pronounced shortwave to undercut the ridge and reach
the region Thursday night/Friday morning. This trough ushers a
cold front southward for the daytime on Friday and sends
temperatures falling in its wake and setting up a colder
weekend. There exist a 10-15 degree NBM interquartile spread for
high temperatures on Friday (mid-40s to mid-50s), indicative of
the timing discrepancies for when this front slides through.
There also exists ample spread in if there will be any
precipitation with this frontal passage with QPF amounts
expected to be light (<0.10").

A second PV lobe breaks off a negatively-tiled trough lifting
along the Pacific NW coast, racing eastward and reaching the
region Saturday into Saturday night. Accompanied by favorable
jet dynamics, the system has the potential to produce the first
measurable snow for the region. Questions still linger as to
whether the thermal profiles will support snow and the placement
of the accompanying mesoscale frontogenesis forcing--the latter
likely dictated by how far south our late week cold front can
advance before stalling.

While the aggregate NBM/LREF measurable snowfall probabilities
are low (<20%), a look at the individual LREF members across the
EPS/GEFS/CMC suites shows a signal for an enhanced W to E
snowfall band, but this band is being painted anywhere between
northern Minnesota and central Iowa--if at all. The 03.00Z EPS
AI snowfall output for this band, wherever it sets up, is quite
impressive with nearly 50% of the members have amounts in
excess of 10 inches. But these amounts are much higher than the
traditional ensemble output, a sign that the forecast remains
fluid and much can still change over the next 5 days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light rain will continue
to gradually shift south during the early overnight hours with
rain chances ending between 08Z and 10Z. CIGS around 8kft to
10kft while it is raining then clear skies through the
afternoon. Southwest winds shift to northwest winds after the
rain ends as a weak cold front moves through the region tonight.
The northwest winds increase later this morning and continue
through the afternoon with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and
gusts of 25 to 35 mph especially in Wisconsin and southeast
Minnesota.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skow
AVIATION...Cecava