612
AXNT20 KNHC 221022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Nov 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and
continues southwestward to 09N19W ,where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 09N30W to 07N40W to 09N50W and to 08N59W. Numerous
moderate convection is within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between
22W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of
the ITCZ between 33W-37W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ
between 41W-47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic
to across the eastern and central Gulf. Its related pressure
gradient is generally allowing for mostly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds south of about 24N and east
of 94W. Seas are in the range of 3 to 4 ft, except for lower
seas of 2 to 3 ft in the southeastern Gulf and in the north-
central and NE Gulf zones.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift southeastward
through Sun as a mostly dry cold front moves across the northern
Gulf waters this afternoon and evening. Fresh to locally strong
southeast to south winds are expected to develop offshore of Texas
and northeast Mexico Sun night into Mon afternoon before becoming
mostly fresh south to southwest winds across the central and
western Gulf through early Tue as a weak cold front reaches the
Texas coast. It will be reinforced by a stronger cold front that
will move across the NW Gulf late Tue night into early Wed
morning, and reach from the near the western Florida panhandle to
the west- central Gulf by late Wed. Fresh northeast winds are
expected behind this front. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally
fresh northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and
evening in the Bay of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a diurnal trough develops and moves westward over the region.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
elsewhere through much of this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in the
southwestern Caribbean and in northern Colombia is resulting in
fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia as captured in an
overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are over the
rest of the basin along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for
slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft from 15N to 18N between 72W and
76W.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed over
the southwestern section of the sea, where the East Pacific
monsoon trough extends across the region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through
the middle of next week as low pressure prevails over the south-
central Caribbean. These winds will bring rough seas to the waters
near northwest Colombia. Otherwise, high pressure centered over
the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds
and moderate seas over the rest of the basin through early next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is anaylzed from near 31N63W southwestward to
27N71W. No significant convection is seen in association
with this front. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds
are west of the front to near 65W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with these
winds.  Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the
western Atlantic, with a 1018 mb high situated north of the
area near 32N70W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes
depict moderate to fresh northeast to east winds south of about
24N and west of 71W, including through the passages of the
Bahama Islands. These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba and
through the Straits of Florida. The overnight scatterometer
satellite data passes reveal light to gentle winds west of 47W.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft over these waters per latest altimeter
satellite data passes and several buoy observations.

Over the central Atlantic, a trough extends from near 31N51W to
24N53W and to 19N58W. An upper-level low dropping southward is
near 26N54W. This feature is providing upper support for the
trough. This is observed as scattered moderate convection
within an area bounded from 24N to 31N between 46W and 55W.
Similar activity is to the south from 21N to 24N between 44W and
the trough. The pressure gradient between this trough and strong
high pressure of 1034 mb located to the northeast of the Azores
is producing an area of mostly fresh northeast to east winds N of
26N and east of 37W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east
swell are over this area. Fresh to strong southeast to south
winds are north of 29N between 42W and the trough. Seas are 8 to
10 ft with these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh
trades, with moderate seas are present over the rest of the
tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh northeast winds
over and near the southeastern Bahamas and through the Windward
Passage will diminish this afternoon. Farther north, moderate to
fresh southwest to west winds will develop offshore of northern
Florida this afternoon. These winds will expand farther east into
the central Atlantic through Sun morning ahead of a rather weak
and dry cold front that will move off the coast of the eastern
U.S. The cold front will move across the northwestern waters Sun
and Sun night, reach from near 31N69W to 28N73W and to Palm Beach,
Florida early Mon, from near 31N55W to 27N65W and as a stationary
front to Vero Beach, Florida by late Mon night. The cold front
portion will shift east of the area late Tue while the stationary
portion transitions to a warm front that will lifts north of 31N.
Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and building seas
expected in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, widespread
moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over much of the western
Atlantic by midweek as high pressure that shifts off the eastern
U.S. coast expands, and while at the same a stronger cold front
reaches the southern U.S. coast.

$$
Aguirre