769
AXNT20 KNHC 101720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Dec 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1717 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13.5W, and
continues southwestward to 07N16W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 02N31W to 02N36W and to near 01.5N46.5W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N
between 22W and 41W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
05S to 01N between 25W and 36W. Similar convection is found from
the Equator to 05N between 10W to 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is analyzed over the western Gulf. The stalled frontal
boundary that extends from western Cuba to inland the Yucatan
Peninsula has dissipated. A trough is now analyzed in the same
area. Otherwise, high pressure prevails across the Gulf. Moderate
northeast winds are concentrated over the southeastern Gulf. Seas
of around 6 ft in residual NE swell are over these waters. Light
to gentle anticyclonic winds are present over the remainder of the
basin, except offshore the Texas coast, where moderate south to
southwest winds are present. Seas are 2 to 5 ft across the rest
of the of the Gulf, except in the NE Gulf where seas are 3 ft or
less.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will quickly push across the
E Gulf tonight into tomorrow before dissipating by Fri. Conditions
across the entire Gulf will be quiescent for next few days as
subtle high pressure prevails. Looking ahead, a strong cold front
should reach the N waters on Sun or Sun night with building winds
and seas behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front stretches southwestward from the Great Bahama
Bank to western Cuba, where it transition to a surface trough that
extends to the Yucatan Channel into the Yucatan Peninsula.
Isolated weak showers are possible near the trough. A trough is
analyzed over the NE part of the basin. The latest scatterometer
satellite data passes indicate fresh to strong trade winds present
over south-central Caribbean waters while moderate to fresh trade
winds are elsewhere east of about 80W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with
the fresh to strong trade winds, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the
central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere east of 80W. Light and
variable winds are west of 80W along with seas of 2 to 4 ft in
southeast swell, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in a north to
northeast swell between the western tip of Cuba and the northeast
part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the
Bermuda- Azores High and the Colombian Low will continue to
produce widespread fresh to strong trades over the central
Caribbean for the next several days. Similarly, trades over the
tropical North Atlantic will generally be fresh to strong with
seas to 11 ft in large E swell through the weekend. Some of this
large swell will also funnel through the Atlantic passages in the
Lesser Antilles.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic southwestward
to 31N48W and to 26N73W, where it continues as a stationary front
to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba. Moderate SW winds and
seas 8 to 11 ft are found along the front. Satellite imagery
reveals a large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection along and north of the frontal boundary between 60W and
74W. Elsewhere, a 1025 mb high pressure near 27N38W is the
dominate feature for the central and eastern Atlantic areas. Its
associated pressure gradient is generally providing for gentle NE
to E winds. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in long- period north swell is
mixing with an east swell component south of 23N and east of the
Lesser Antilles, where fresh to locally strong trade winds are
quite expansive in coverage. Gentle to moderate winds are over the
remainder of the Atlantic basin along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will
dissipate late tonight. Fresh to strong SW to W winds will develop
north of the Bahamas tonight ahead of our next cold front. The
new front should emerge off of the Florida/Georgia coast late
tonight and extend from near 31N75W to the Florida Straits
tomorrow morning, moving to 31N60W to the Turks and Caicos Fri
morning, and dissipating in our NE waters from 31N55W to 27N60W
Sat morning. Winds north of 27N both ahead and behind the cold
front will be fresh to strong on Thu and Fri. Additionally, 8-10
ft seas due to mixed SE and N swell will impact the waters south
of 25N east of 65W tomorrow and extending through the weekend.
Winds will improve across forecast waters Fri night through the
weekend.

$$ KRV