990
AXNT20 KNHC 052315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Oct 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave,
with axis near 30W, continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this week as it moves
quickly across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching
portions of the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week.
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system. There
is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the
next 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A second tropical wave is along 45W from 20N southward, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring near
this wave.

Another tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with axis
along 59W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is
analyzed along the wave axis near 16N. Some shower activity is
near the low center.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Senegal near 15.5N17W and continues southwestward to a 1010 mb
low pressure located near 08.5N30W (AL95), to 07N34W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N34W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 05N to 08N between 12W and 20W, and from 05N to
10N between 40W and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak trough of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coasts of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is beginning to
move inland over the Gulf coast and development is not expected due
to strong upper-level winds and land interaction. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds persist over the N Gulf, particularly N of 27N based
on scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within this winds.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will build modestly across the
Gulf basin by late Mon leading to moderate E to SE winds and slight
to moderate seas, with locally fresh winds possible in the northeastern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information on
Invest AL95.

A weak pressure gradient dominates the Caribbean Sea supporting
in general gentle to moderate trade winds. Slight to moderate
seas are within these winds. Higher seas of 5 to 7 ft in N swell
are noted across the NE Atlantic passages, including the Mona and
Anegada Passages, and waters in the vicinity of the Leeward
Islands. An upper-level low is spinning over the eastern part of
the basin while a diffluent pattern aloft is observed elsewhere.
This pattern is helping to induce convection over the western
part of the Caribbean, especially W of 75W, including Cuba, the
Cayman Islands and Jamaica as well as parts of Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, rough seas in large N to NE swell over the
tropical Atlantic waters will gradually subside early this week.
Elsewhere, moderate trade winds will persist across the south-
central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds will pulse fresh to
locally strong in the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf
of Honduras, each night through the middle of the week. A broad
area of low pressure (AL95) is forecast to move quickly across
the central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the
Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week. Regardless of
development, expect an increase in winds and seas with this
system by the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details on
Invest AL95.

A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N40W and
extends westward to 27N55W to the central Bahamas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. Fresh
to strong easterly winds are N of the frontal boundary. Recent
altimeter data and buoys observations indicate that max seas of
12 to 13 ft follow the front, particularly over the central
Atlantic. High pressure continues to dominates the western
Atlantic in the wake of the front. Farther east, a 1024 mb high
pressure is analyzed midway between the Azores and the Madeira
Islands. The pressure gradient between this system and a surface
trough over NW Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds between
the Canary Islands, and offshore Western Sahara. These winds
also cover the waters from 19N to 26N E of 25W to the coast of W
Africa. Rough seas are within these winds. Gentle to moderate
winds are observed across the tropical Atlantic with moderate to
rough seas in NW to N swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in large N to NE swell
across the forecast waters will slowly subside from north to
south over the central Atlantic early this week. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds will prevail north of the above mentioned stationary
front, extending from the central Atlantic near 27N55W through
the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through late Tue
before winds slowly diminish by midweek.

$$
GR