493
AXNT20 KNHC 131716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Oct 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 14.8N 41.2W at 13/1500
UTC or 1000 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Max seas are 19 ft.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 12N-17N between 37W-42W. A motion toward the northwest with
a gradual slowdown is expected through tonight, followed by a turn
to the north on Tuesday. Little change in strength is forecast
through early Tuesday, but some gradual intensification is
possible by the middle portion of the week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has emerged off of the coast of West Africa
along 17W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate and isolated
convection is noted from 05N-10N east of 20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 12N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 06N-11N between 24N-30N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N-13N between 50W-55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 07N23W to 08N37W.
Scattered moderate and isolated convection is noted from 05N-10N
east of 20W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 06N-11N
between 24N-30N. The ITCZ extends again from 08N45W to 09N53W,
where it breaks for a tropical wave along 54W, then it resumes
from 10N56W to 10N62W over coastal Venezuela. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N-13N between 50W-55W and from
09N-13N between 60W-62W.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from coastal Nicaragua
near 12N84W to 10N76W over coastal Colombia. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 13N west of
79W in the SW Caribbean.

GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 1500 UTC...a trough extends from the Florida Straits to
23N86W and a second trough is located from 23N91W to 27N96W.
Scattered showers are present within 30 NM of the troughs. Ridging
over the SE United States is forcing only moderate or weaker
winds with seas 1-3 ft across the Gulf this morning.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure pattern will dominate
the basin through the work week, resulting in gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the Gulf. Winds are
expected to increase to fresh speeds over the eastern and central
Gulf Thu night through Fri night as the pressure gradient
tightens some across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A vigorous mid-latitude upper-level trough is supporting a cold
front north of the Caribbean along with surface troughing that
extends into the W Caribbean. This is producing isolated moderate
to strong over a large portion of the western and central
Caribbean between 73W-82W. Away from the thunderstorms, the trades
are gentle to moderate east of 75W and the winds are light and
variable west of 75W. Seas are 1-4 ft across the Caribbean today.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is near 14.8N 41.2W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 14 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Lorenzo will move to 15.6N 42.7W this
evening, 17.2N 44.1W Tue morning, 19.2N 44.9W Tue evening, 21.4N
44.9W Wed morning, 23.9N 43.5W Wed evening, and 26.7N 41.2W Thu
morning. Lorenzo will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 31.4N 34.4W early Fri. Meanwhile, a moist weather pattern
will maintain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across
the western and central Caribbean during the next few days. A weak
pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas over much of the basin through the work
week. A weak cyclonic circulation may develop over the NW
Caribbean toward midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.

A vigorous mid-latitude upper-level trough is supporting a cold
front from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring between 72W-75W. Winds are
fresh SW ahead of the front north of 25N, with fresh to strong W
winds behind the front north of 30N west of 76W. Farther east, a
surface trough extends from 31N59W to 27N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 26N-31N between 56W-60W. North of
29N, winds associated with the trough are fresh to strong. Seas
are 6-8 ft in association with both the front and the trough.
Elsewhere, a minimal north-south pressure gradient between a weak
1021 mb Bermuda-Azores High at 34N47W and lower pressure over the
ITCZ is producing only gentle to moderate trades across the
tropical north Atlantic today. Seas are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is near 14.8N 41.2W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 14 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Lorenzo will move to 15.6N 42.7W this
evening, 17.2N 44.1W Tue morning, 19.2N 44.9W Tue evening, 21.4N
44.9W Wed morning, 23.9N 43.5W Wed evening, and 26.7N 41.2W Thu
morning. Lorenzo will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 31.4N 34.4W early Fri. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds will
continue to affect the NE waters through tonight. In the meantime,
a stationary front extends from a non-tropical low off the
Carolinas to NW Bahamas. The frontal boundary will be reinforced
today, and the merged front will extend from 31N71W to the central
Bahamas and western Cuba as a cold front by this evening, and
from 31N66W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Tue
evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on
either side of the front across the waters N of 27N by late Tue.
These marine conditions will shift eastward through late in the
week.

$$
Landsea/Rubio