650
AXNT20 KNHC 180924
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One). Potential Tropical
Cyclone One is centered near 21.3N 93.0W at 18/0900 UTC or 300 nm
ESE of La Pesca Mexico, moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking near 13 ft within 330 nm N
of the system center. The broad wind field associated with this
disturbance is generating tropical storm force winds extending
outward up to 250 nm northeast of the system center. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is observed over much of
the waters west of 73W in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Heavy rains are impacting portions of southern Mexico, Central
America, western Cuba, Cayman Islands and Jamaica. A general
northward motion will continue into tonight before a gradual turn
toward the west. On this track, the center will be near
northeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.

The broad system will continue to produce heavy rainfall across
southern Mexico and western Central America during the next few
days as abundant moisture continues to advect into the region.
The heavy rains will expand toward Texas and NE Mexico in the
next couple of days. The threat to life and property continues to
increase as the event continues.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W/33W,
south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 knots. Only limited
convection is noted near the trough axis.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W, south
of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 knots. No deep convection is
noted near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 16N16W, then continues southwestward to 07N40W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N40W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N and east of
26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 03N to 11N and between 10W and 26W, ahead of the next
tropical wave nearing the coast of West Africa. Scattered to
moderate convection is also noted from 03N to 06N between 39W and
51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One covers most of the Gulf of Mexico,
producing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms except in
the NE Gulf and west of 94W. Aside from the area of 35 kt winds,
strong to near- gale force winds cover much of the waters W of
85W, with fresh to strong winds E of 85W. Aside from the area of
12 ft or greater seas discussed above, seas of 8-12 ft cover much
of the waters N of 21N and W of 85W, with seas of 4-7 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move to
22.0N 93.1W this afternoon, 22.7N 94.5W Wed morning, 23.2N 96.2W
Wed afternoon, then will move inland over Mexico to near 23.3N
98.1W Thu morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts.

The broad nature of Potential Tropical Cyclone One is resulting
in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central
and NW Caribbean Sea. The broad wind field around PTC one is
supporting fresh to locally near gale- force SE winds in the NW
Caribbean, especially west of 83W. Stronger gusts are possible
with the strongest convection. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in
the south- central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a broad circulation around Potential Tropical
Cyclone One will support fresh to near gale- force SE winds with
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean
through at least Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades
over the central and E Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh
speeds by midweek and prevail through late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persist in the
vicinity of a surface trough extending from 30N55W to low pres
near 24N64W to 21N67W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the
waters N of 26N and W of 57W with seas 0f 6-8 ft. Farther east of
the trough, high pressure prevails. Outside of the area of
moderate to fresh winds, gentle to moderate winds prevail, with
seas in the 3-6 ft range. The one exception is off the coast of
Africa where fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail
ahead of the next tropical wave which will move off the coast of
Africa later today.

For the forecast west of 55W, Environmental conditions could be
conducive for some gradual development of this system discussed
above during the next few days while it moves westward or west-
northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the
southeastern United States on Friday. Regardless of development,
fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail across the
waters N of 25N through Thu.

$$
AL