731
AXNT20 KNHC 202229
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then
runs southwestward to 07N21W. An ITCZ continues westward from
07N21W across 06N35W to 08N54W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring near and south of the monsoon
trough and part of the ITCZ north of 04N east of 17W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the central Gulf.
Otherwise, a surface ridge related to a 1021 mb high just west of
Tampa continues to dominate the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and
1-2 ft seas are found at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to
fresh SSE winds and seas at 3-5 ft are present off the southern
Texas and northeastern Mexico. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh ESE winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will
pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
Campeche each afternoon and evening into next week as a trough
develops each day and moves westward. Elsewhere, moderate to
occasionally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected over much of the Gulf through Fri as ridging prevails
over the southeastern United States. Looking ahead, fresh to
locally strong SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf Sun
into next week as a low pressure system moves through the
southern United States.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing widely scattered showers near and
south of Hispaniola. Convergent trade winds are coupling with
divergent flow aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over Trinidad and Tobago, and near the southern
Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and seas at 4-8 ft are found across the western
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to
E winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted in the central and eastern
basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over
the basin into next week as low pressure anchors over the south-
central Caribbean and high pressure prevails north of the region.
Pulsing strong winds and locally rough seas are expected
offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning this weekend
into next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from a 1014 mb low near
33N54W across 31N57W to 28N68W. A surface trough extends
southward from this low across 31N55W to 21N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident near and up to 120 NM north of
the front, and near and up to 240 NM east of the trough. A
surface trough is bringing scattered showers near the southeast
Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in
the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to locally moderate NW to NE winds and seas at 3-6 ft are
found north of 20N between 55W and the Florida-Georgia coast. To
the east, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 6-9 ft
dominate north of 20N between 35W and 55W. For the tropical
Atlantic from 05N-20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles,
gentle to moderate E trades and 5-7 ft seas are found. For the
Atlantic Basin east of 35W, a 1015 mb low at 30N25W with an
associated cold front extending to its southwest is producing
fresh to strong NE winds north of 27N between 25W-35W with seas
8-12 ft. Elsewhere east of 35W, winds are moderate or lighter
with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will
occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and
central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the
north and low pressure anchors over the south-central Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to SW winds are expected
north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of northern
Florida, by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast of the
U.S. The front is slated to enter the northern waters on Sun,
leading to moderate N to NE winds and building seas in the wake
of the front.

$$
Chan/Adams/Landsea