544
AXNT20 KNHC 281648
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Nov 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over the African continent. The
ITCZ extends westward from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W
to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 09N to 14N between 27W and 49W, and from 05N to 09N
between 15W and 35W.

The extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
scattered moderate convection in the SW Caribbean from the coast
of Panama north to 13N between 74W and 82W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Strong high pressure continues to build across the Gulf in the
wake of the cold front that exited the basin earlier this morning.
Recent scatterometer and surface observations indicate fresh to
strong NE winds across the basin, including within the Straits of
Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 8-10 ft are across the
basin south of 26N, including within the Straits of Florida and
the Yucatan Channel. North of 26N, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, winds will diminish tonight as high pressure
settles into the region, but fresh to strong southerly flow will
develop in the NW Gulf Sat ahead of the next cold front. This
front will move offshore Texas late Sat night, then stall over the
NW basin through Mon before moving SE through the Gulf Mon night
and Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize. The
latest satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE winds
north of the front in the far NW Caribbean, including within the
Yucatan Channel. Seas are analyzed as 8-10 ft north of the front,
including within the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are along
the frontal boundary. Ahead of the front, the pressure gradient
between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure
over Colombia continues to support fresh to strong trades and
8-10 ft seas across the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, trades are
mainly moderate with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean
will sustain strong trades over the SW and south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, today. Moderate to
fresh trades are expected elsewhere in the eastern and central
basin through Sun. A cold front extending from western Cuba to the
NE Yucatan Peninsula is followed by fresh to strong NE winds and
rough seas. The front is expected to stall from central Cuba to
the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then gradually lift N of the
area on Sat. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon
and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68W across the central Bahamas to
central Cuba. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows moderate
to fresh NW to N winds west of the front. Seas are 4-7 ft behind
the front, and scattered showers are along the frontal boundary.
Aside from a decaying stationary front and some weak surface
troughs in the central Atlantic, the basin is dominated by high
pressure centered just west of the Azores. Trades are gentle to
moderate, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic cold front
will drift SE through tonight, then stall Sat and dissipate by
Sun. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will
produce increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat,
diminishing from west to east Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds will
develop across the N and central Florida offshore waters Mon night
ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida
coast Tue night.

$$
Mahoney