542
AXNT20 KNHC 130356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Sep 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from
02N-20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N-17N between 20W-28W. Dry and stable
air will likely limit this system`s development over the next few
days, but a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter
part of next week while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for
tropical development within the next 7 days.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from
01N-20N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 11N-17N between 35W-40W.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W south of
19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 12N-16N between 56W-61W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W south of
20N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 20N and west of 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of
Africa near 19N16W to 11N26W to 11N43W. The ITCZ continues from
11N43W to 09N56W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical
waves section above, no significant is noted.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends over the SE Gulf. Scattered moderate
convection is in the vicinity of the front. High pressure
dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds
are SE of the front, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing
elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, the front will weaken through the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the
front. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas
are expected north of the front while mainly gentle winds and
slight seas will prevail elsewhere across the basin. Moderate to
locally fresh winds may pulse through the period offshore the
western Yucatan Peninsula as a trough moves into the eastern Bay
of Campeche late each night into the early morning hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Caribbean waters E of
80W, reaching fresh speeds over the south central Caribbean.
Gentle winds prevail elsewhere W of 80W. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
range in the south central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between relatively weak
ridging over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will
maintain moderate winds and seas across the Caribbean through the
early part of next week, except for gentle breezes and slight seas
across the northwest Caribbean. Looking ahead, the ridge will
strengthen afterward through Wed night allowing for fresh trade
winds to pulse over the south- central Caribbean along the coast
of South America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from low pres near 31N72W to the
northern Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the front.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail W of the
front. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of
20N, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 36N30W. Moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail N of 18N and E of 40W.
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will gradually weaken
through the weekend. It will continue to bring showers and
thunderstorms to waters near Florida and the Bahamas into the
weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to locally rough
seas are expected north of the front through Sun. To the east of
the front, broad Atlantic high pressure will persist east of 70W
allowing for gentle to moderate winds and mostly moderate seas.

$$
AL