291
AXNT20 KNHC 251027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 11N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 11N19W to 09N40W and to 09N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 05N to 15N and east of 30W. Similar
convection is observed from 07N to 14N and between 53W and 63W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front is nearing the Texas coast and the pressure
gradient between this feature and high pressure off New England
support moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds and moderate seas
over much of the Gulf waters. No significant convection is noted
in the basin.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh southerly winds will
decrease to gentle to moderate later today as high pressure off
New England departs eastward. A stronger reinforcing cold front
will overtake the aforementioned weak front early Wed, then move
into the NW Gulf waters. The cold front will then sweep to the
southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, followed by fresh to
strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal
boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure off New England continues to force fresh to strong
easterly winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. The
strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered
showers in the Gulf of Honduras and SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the islands and lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain
fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central
Caribbean through late this week. The strongest winds of 25 to 30
kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected offshore
Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin, the
weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along with
moderate seas through the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will
enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and rough
seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N58W to near 28N72W, where
it becomes a stationary front that extends to near Cape Canaveral,
FL. No significant convection is noted near the front. Moderate
to fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft follow these fronts. Farther
east, a weak 1014 mb low pressure is near 31N47W. A surface
trough extends from this low to 19N48W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present north of 21N between 43W and
49W. In the east Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from
29N21W to 26N25W to 21N26W to 16N30W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are ongoing between the trough axis and
the west coast of Africa. Scatterometer satellite data from a few
hours ago indicates fresh to locally strong winds N of the
trough, driven by the pressure gradient between the trough and
high pressure to the north.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic away from the aforementioned
features, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail
across the vast majority of the basin. The exceptions are two
regions, one north of 20N between 35W and 65W, and the other in
the vicinity of the Canary Islands, where gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 2-5 ft prevail due to weaker pressure gradients
in these areas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the
aforementioned front will continue eastward and reach from 31N44W
to 27N63W by tonight, while the portion west of 70W starts to
lift north. High pressure located off New England will shift
eastward following the front, supporting moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of
a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida
coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits
of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and
building seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened
pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring
increasing winds and building seas across much of the forecast
area during the upcoming weekend.

$$
Delgado