487
AXNT20 KNHC 271042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough runs westward from the Sierra Leone Coast to
near 07N15W, then continues as the ITCZ from 07N15W to 08N35W to
06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present near these
features from 03N to 12N between the Liberia coast and 45W.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and
isolated strong thunderstorms over the Caribbean offshore waters
of Costa Rica, western Panama and Nicaragua.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 27N92W where it
stalls and then continues to southern Texas. Active showers and
thunderstorms are ahead of this frontal boundary being enhanced by
the presence of two surface troughs, one over the SE basin and the
other in the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds follow this front along with seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and is expected to
extend from near Tampa to Tampico later this morning, from the
Florida Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico tonight, and then exit
the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the cold front.
Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold
front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh to
strong return flow will set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat.
Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge from the Texas
coast Sat night and meander slowly southeastward across the NW
Gulf Sun through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient associated with the Bermuda High and
lower pressure linked to the E extension of the Pacific monsoon
continues to support strong to near gales off Colombia and most of
the SW basin. Seas with these winds are rough in the 8 to 12 ft.
Moderate to fresh are elsewhere in the central and E Caribbean
along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are ongoing in the NW Caribbean waters. Otherwise,
heavy showers and scattered tstms are affecting the offshore
waters of W Panama, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain strong to
near gale-force trades over the SW and portions of the central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through Fri morning.
Moderate to fresh trades are forecast elsewhere in the eastern and
central basin through Mon. A cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean on Fri morning, followed by fresh to strong NE winds.
The front is forecast to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula Fri night, then gradually dissipate over the NW
Caribbean on Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N36W through
26N50W to 24N61W. High pressure of 1029 mb N of this boundary
continues to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the
central subtropical Atlantic waters between 38W and 68W where seas
are rough to 10 ft. A new cold front is emerging off of the NE
Florida coast this morning, preceded and followed by moderate to
fresh winds. Seas are moderate. Surface ridging along with
moderate or weaker winds and seas are ongoing elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the stationary
front east of 65W will diminish this morning, as the front dissipates.
A 1029 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will help to
sustain fresh E-NE winds south of 23N and in the approach to the
Windward Passage through tonight before diminishing on Fri. The
new cold front coming off the NE Florida coast this morning will
be followed by fresh to locally strong N to NE winds. The cold
front will extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits tonight, from
31N63W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then
dissipate from 31N59W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight
pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring
increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat,
gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.

$$
Ramos