503
AXNT20 KNHC 262109
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from near 10N13W to 09N15W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N15W to 06.5N24W to 09.5N37W to near the far
northern coast of Brazil at 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is present from 02.5N to 08.5N between 11W and 34W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extending from
just south of Panama is causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near southern Nicaragua,
Costa Rica and western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from northern Florida to far NE Mexico just
south of Brownsville, Texas. A prefrontal trough located about
90-210 nm ahead of the front, and the front itself are supporting
numerous moderate convection over the area. A surface trough
across the Bay of Campeche is supporting a cluster of moderate
convection. Fresh to strong NE winds are found behind the front
with 5-8 ft seas, highest in the central and southern Texas
coastal waters. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and
1-3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and is expected to
extend from near Tampa to Tampico Thu morning, from the Florida
Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico Thu night, and then exit the
Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the cold front.
Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold
front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh to
strong return flow will set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat.
Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge from the Texas
coast Sat night and meander slowly southeastward across the NW
Gulf Sun through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Other than the convection mentioned above in the SW Caribbean,
scattered showers are noted in the SE Caribbean due to mid-to-
upper level support. A tight pressure gradient between the
Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressures over NW Colombia/SW
Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to strong trades and seas of 8-12
ft across most of the central Caribbean between 68W and 83W, near
gale offshore northern Colombia. Trades are moderate to fresh in
the eastern Caribbean along with seas of 6-7 ft. Mainly moderate
trades and 4-6 ft seas are in the NW Caribbean and elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong
trades across all but NW portions of the basin through Thu
morning, with locally near gale winds off Colombia, then gradually
diminishing winds and seas through Fri afternoon as the high
shifts eastward. A cold front will slowly enter the NW Caribbean
on Fri, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front should
stall from central Cuba to the southern Yucatan Peninsula by Sat
morning, then gradually wash out over the NW Caribbean by Sat
evening, with conditions improving during the remainder of the
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from north of the area near the Azores to
1018 mb low pressure near 33.5N35.5W through 31N38W to 25.5N59W
with fresh to strong NE winds and 7-11 ft seas behind the front.
Widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are
possible north of 28N just ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh
trades are noted from 18N to 25N between about 50W and the Bahamas
with 1029 mb high pressure northwest of Bermuda controlling much
of the basin in the wake of the front. Another cold front is
approaching the Georgia coast with some associated scattered
showers just ahead of it now entering the waters offshore northern
Florida. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder
of the basin, along with 4-7 ft seas, except 2-4 ft north of 27N
and west of 77W. Also, fresh to strong winds and 7-9 ft seas are
noted offshore of northern Africa and to the north-northeast of
the Canary Islands due to a locally tight pressure gradient.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the front east
of 65W will diminish through Thu morning, as the front
dissipates. A 1030 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will
help to sustain fresh to strong E-NE winds south of 23N and in the
approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before
diminishing on Thu. A new cold front will emerge off of the NE
Florida coast tonight, bringing with it fresh to locally strong N
to NE winds behind the front. The cold front will extend from
31N72W to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N63W through the
central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N59W the
NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake
of the front is forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much
of the forecast area Sat, gradually diminishing from west to east
Sun.

$$
Lewitsky