426
AXNT20 KNHC 182256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 14N17W to 11N20W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N54W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails within 200 nm on either side of the
boundaries mainly E of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. A surface
trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche along 96W. Gentle to
moderate ENE to SSE winds and slight seas are present for the
entire Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeast U.S. will
maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate
seas through Sat across the basin. A low pressure may develop
over northeast Mexico this weekend, supporting moderate to fresh
SE winds and moderate seas over the northwest Gulf by late Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak 1013 mb low is analyzed near 21N82W. Convergent SE winds
east of the low are generating scattered moderate convection
between SE Cuba and adjacent waters. To the E, a surface trough
extends along 63W and N of 14N. The eastern extension of the
Pacific`s monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate
convection across the SW Caribbean S of 10N between 75W-80W. Fresh
NE to E trade winds and moderate seas are noted over the south-
central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and slight seas
prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure will devolve into
a surface trough this evening, move W to the Yucatan Channel
tonight, then dissipate Wed. High pressure building from the north
will gradually cause tradewinds to return to normal magnitude by
mid- week, with moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds expected
Wed into the weekend. Pulsing strong winds are likely offshore
Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak and slow moving cold front extends from 31N62W to 28N72W,
then continues as a stationary front to 27N78W. To the E, a
surface trough extends from 29N59W to 25N63W. A divergent upper-
level winds are enhancing scattered moderate convection near the
trough N of 25N between 52W and 60W. At the central Atlantic, a
stationary front runs southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic
across 31N36W to 23N45W. Scattered showers are found up to 50 nm
along either side of this feature. A robust surface trough is
bringing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms near
the coast of Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are present
across the tropical Atlantic S of 20N, while light to gentle
variable winds prevail elsewhere E of the W Atlantic front. Rough
seas prevail N of 28N between 47W-63W and within 300 nm N of the
Cabo Verde Islands, while moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
become stationary and dissipate through Wed. High pressure will
build southward in the wake of the front through late week,
leading to gentle breezes N of 25N and moderate E winds to the
south. N swell will induce rough seas N of 28N and E of 70W into
tonight. Thereafter, moderate seas will gradually decay from
moderate to slight from west to east across the area through late
week. SW winds may increase slightly off northeast Florida late
Fri through Sat ahead of a weak cold front moving into the
southeast U.S.

$$
ERA