125
AXNT20 KNHC 111655
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Dec 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to
07N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N47W. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted from 0.5N to 08N, and east
of 38W. Isolated convection is also noted from 02N to 06N between
37W and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Saint Petersburg, FL to near 25N96W.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the front along with seas
3 to 6 ft. A surface trough is generating isolated convection over
the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending
southeastward from central Texas is dominating the rest of the
Gulf. Therefore, light to gentle N to NE winds prevail across the
remainder of the basin along with 2 to 3 ft seas, except for
moderate winds over the SE Gulf including the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are
expected over the northern Gulf into this afternoon, in the wake
of a cold front extending from central Florida to near the Texas-
Mexico border. The front will progress southeastward through
tonight before dissipating. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally
fresh E to NE winds will occur in the eastern Bay of Campeche and
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected
over the remainder of the basin through Sat. Looking ahead, the
next cold front is slated to enter the northern Gulf on Sun, and
increasing winds and building seas will occur in the wake of the
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Channel and is
supporting scattered moderate convection. Fresh to strong ENE to
E winds and rough seas are evident at the south- central basin.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds with moderate seas are present
over the north- central and eastern parts of the basin. Light to
gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, widespread fresh trade winds are expected over
the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun morning as a
moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and
high pressure to the north. Strong E winds will pulse in the
central basin, and winds may reach near-gale force at times
offshore of northern Colombia. Rough seas are expected near and to
the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade
winds and rough seas in E swell will prevail over the Atlantic
waters and through the passages into the eastern basin through
this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the
northwestern Caribbean by early next week, and increasing winds
and building seas will be possible behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N62W to the Bahamas. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the
trough between 61W-77W. To the W, a cold front extends from 31N71W
to 28N75W, while a second and stronger cold front extends from
31N76W to Cocoa Beach, FL. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge
prevails, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 27N44W.

Fresh to strong SW to W winds and moderate seas are noted
ahead of the fronts north of 27N, and between 57W and 71W. In the
wake of the front north of 28.5N, and between 71W and 80W, fresh
to strong NW winds and rough seas prevail. At the central
Atlantic north of 27N between 35W and 48W, light to gentle winds
and rough seas prevail in large mixed swell. For the tropical
Atlantic, fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas are
present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W,
gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and moderate seas exist.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold fronts will rapidly
progress eastward into the central Atlantic through Fri, and
widespread strong to locally near-gale force SW winds will occur
ahead of the front, generally north of 28N and east of 70W into
Fri afternoon. Near and to the west of the cold fronts, fresh to
locally strong W to NW winds are anticipated, north of 28N from
offshore of Florida to 70W through late tonight. Rough seas
associated with this storm system are expected north of 27N, with
seas slowly subsiding from west to east into this weekend.
Elsewhere in the central Atlantic, rough seas in mixed N and SE
swell will prevail through Fri morning, with a new mixed swell
reinforcing rough seas this weekend. Looking ahead, the next cold
front is slated to push off the coast of the southeastern United
States on Sun, and increasing winds and building seas will occur
in the wake of the front.

$$ KRV