773
AXNT20 KNHC 030255
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Dec 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0250 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 08N20W to 06N25W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 03N35W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 06N between 10W and 15W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Clearwater, Florida to 23N92W where it
becomes stationary and extends to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to
strong N winds and seas to at least 7 ft are noted behind the
front off the coast of Veracruz. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of the front. Gentle
W to NW breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident south of the front.
No significant showers or thunderstorms are active across the Gulf
at this time.

For the forecast, marine conditions will diminish by tonight. The
cold front will move southeastward, reaching the south-central
Gulf by Wed morning. Then, the front will stall and lift northward
by late Wed, as another low pressure system forms over South
Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front will
enter the NW waters on Thu, and extend from SE Louisiana to near
Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall and lift north toward the
northern Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge to the north has been disrupted by a trough
N of N of Puerto Rico, creating a weak pressure gradient over the
basin and leading to mainly gentle winds and slight seas over the
basin. A few showers and thunderstorms remain active off the coast
of Panama, where the eastern portion of the NE Pacific monsoon
trough resides.

For the forecast, winds will freshen up starting Thu as the high
pressure builds in north of the area. These conditions will
prevail into early next week, especially in the central and
eastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in
NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean passages through
the week and into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front reaches from a deep low pressure system off Long
Island to near St Augustine, Florida. A pre-frontal trough reaches
from 31N77W to Ft Lauderdale, Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds
and moderate to rough seas are noted within 180 nm east of the
front, with fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft following the front.
Another surface trough extends along 67W south of 28N to Puerto
Rico. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted east of the trough
near 25N62W. A ridge axis is noted between the front and this
trough, from Bermuda to central Cuba. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds and 6 to 9 ft seas cover the remainder of the North Atlantic
south of 31N and east of the trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to strong winds off
northeast Florida will shift east and lift north of the area by
Wed afternoon. The front will extend from near Bermuda to South
Florida on Wed morning, and from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida
by Thu morning. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly winds and
rough seas follow a surface trough currently located just N of
Puerto Rico. The trough will continue to move westward passing N
of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds and seas in the wake of the
trough are gradually diminishing.

$$
Christensen