161
AXNT20 KNHC 072253
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Dec 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A new cold front is expected to
enter the NW Gulf early tonight, followed by fresh to strong
northwest to north winds and building seas. Gale-force NW to N
winds are expected to briefly occur off Veracruz Mon afternoon
through evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the
front stalls across the entrance to the Yucatan Channel and
Straits of Florida, and high pressure settles across the central
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist late Wed
through Fri.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia
near 06N11W and continues SW to near extends to 02N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N17W to 03N30W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 10W and 20W, and from
02N to 09N between 25N and 40W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
upcoming gale conditions expected offshore of Veracruz, Mexico.

A frontal boundary persists over the northern Gulf producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh, with
pockets of locally strong, N to NE winds are occurring north of
this front as observed via recent scatterometer satellite data.
Within about 90 nm SE of the front, fresh to locally strong
southerly winds are noted. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas dominate the Gulf region.

For the forecast, the above mentioned frontal boundary will
weaken and drift northeastward this evening. A new cold front is
expected to enter the NW Gulf early tonight and overtake the
current front on Mon, while sweeping southeastward across the
basin through Tue. This will lead to fresh to strong N to NW
winds and building seas in the wake of this front. Please, see
the Special Features section for more details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure N of the basin
and the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh trades over the
east and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate E to SE winds
are noted over the western Caribbean. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are
prevalent E of 80W, with seas of 2 to 5 ft W of 80W. Scattered
showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed over NE
Honduras and northern Nicaragua. A narrow band of similar
convective activity extends from northern Nicaragua to eastern
Panama. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this
convective activity. Elsewhere low-topped trade wind showers are
observed on satellite imagery.

For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the basin along about
25N will support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and
moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through at
least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Fresh to locally
strong trade winds and persistent NE to E swell will support
rough seas across the Atlantic waters and passages of the Lesser
Antilles through next Fri. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front
will approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across
the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida through Wed night
before dissipating. High pressure will build across the eastern
Gulf of America by the middle of next week, leading to strong
winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean into late
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends from 31N60W to just offshore of
the NW Bahamas, where it has become nearly stationary. Moderate
to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are noted on either
side of the front E of 65W. In the central Atlantic, a frontal
trough persists, and extends from near 30N36W to 26N50W. A narrow
band of mainly low clouds, with possible showers, is associated
with the trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is
under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure
located NW of the Canary Islands near 29N20W. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate to rough seas dominate the tropical Atlantic.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
Broken to overcast mostly mid and high-level clouds are being
steered northeastward by strong winds aloft from the central
tropical Atlantic to W Africa. These clouds are now crossing
south of the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas associated with the
weakening cold front will shift eastward tonight as the front
dissipates. A complex low pressure system and strong cold front
will move into the northwestern tropical Atlantic waters tonight
through Mon, supporting widespread strong to near gale-force
winds N of 27N, and building seas ahead of and behind the front
Mon through Tue evening. The cold front will reach from near
Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue afternoon,
then gradually weaken and stall along about 26N early Wed as the
low pressure shifts well NE of the area. Large N swell will move
into the regional waters Tue through Wed then diminish Wed night.

$$
GR