165
AXNT20 KNHC 282250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Nov 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2235 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over the African continent. The
ITCZ extends westward from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W
to 08N35W and to 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
04N to 17N and east of 55W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong high pressure over the Mississippi Valley dominates the
Gulf of America, supporting mainly dry conditions. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures
associated with a cold front in the NW Caribbean results in fresh
to strong N-NE winds over much of the basin and seas of 5-10 ft.
The strongest winds are found in SE Gulf and the highest seas in
the Yucatan Channel and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds and associated
rough seas will diminish tonight as high pressure builds into the
SE U.S. SE return flow will quickly develop in the NW Gulf Sat
and reach strong speeds offshore Texas, ahead of a cold front that
will move off the coast Sat night, then stall through Mon before
moving SE through the basin early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of
the front in the NW Caribbean. Similar convection is occurring in
the SW Caribbean due to divergence aloft and convergent surface
winds. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are evident behind
the frontal boundary, with seas peaking near 10 ft in the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5-9 ft
are present in the central, eastern and SW Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over
the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean
will sustain fresh to locally strong trades over the SW and south-
central Caribbean into tonight, with moderate trades elsewhere in
the central and eastern basin prevailing through the weekend as
the gradient weakens some. A weakening cold front that extends
from central Cuba to Belize will stall tonight then dissipate Sat.
Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas behind it through the
Yucatan Channel will diminish as the front decays. A very weak
pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to
tranquil marine conditions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and
central Cuba. A strong ridge over the central United States is
forcing fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft
behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds and highest
seas occurring in the Florida Straits. In the central and eastern
tropical Atlantic waters, a broad subtropical ridge centered SW of
the Azores dominates, supporting mainly moderate easterly winds
and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will drift
E through Sat, then stall Sat night and dissipate Sun. A tight
pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing
NE winds across the SW Atlantic this weekend. Fresh to strong SE
winds will develop offshore NE Florida Mon night ahead of the next
cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue night.

$$
Delgado