632
AXNT20 KNHC 011756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Dec 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Seas: A large area of strong E winds
extends across the central Atlantic from 18N to 30N, between 20W
and 60W. These conditions are being generated by the pressure
gradient between a 1034 mb Azores, lower pressure along the
Atlantic ITCZ, and a robust surface trough that extends along 60W
from 18N to 25N. Rough seas in easterly waves are combining with
fading NW swell across this zone to produce seas of 8 to 13 ft.
The highest seas are occurring within the zone of strongest winds
in a corridor near the apex of the trough, from 20N to 26N between
48W and 58W. The trough will continue to move W and pass north of
the Leeward Islands tonight through Tue. Winds will diminish
slightly through the period, but given the long fetch and duration
of the winds, this pattern will support seas of 12 to 13 ft
through this evening over an area from 22N to 28N between 50W and
58W. Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft seas will
persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through late
week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W and
continues to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N19.5W to 04.5N35W
to 04.5N45W to 07N50W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 04N to 10N and east of 48W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 27.5N97W
to just offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico and then westward and
inland. Strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are north of the
front and into the Texas coastal waters, while fresh to strong NW
to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail west of the front across
the Mexican waters. Scattered showers are evident along and
behind the front. A low level cyclonic clouds swirl is seen on
satellite imagery and analyzed as a 1015 mb surface low near
25.5N89.5W. An old frontal boundary extends from the Florida
Straits northwestward to just northeast of this surface low, where
scattered moderate to strong showers are occurring along the
boundary. Fresh easterly winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail
between the trough and the front. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3
to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, low pressure is expected to develop along the
stationary front in the NW Gulf today into tonight, and slide quickly
northeastward, resulting in fresh to strong N winds and locally
rough seas north of the front and low. Winds and seas will diminish
late Tue across the NE Gulf after the low shifts inland.
Thereafter, the front will move southeastward and farther into
the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf through mid-
week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead,
another cold front will enter the western waters late Thu,
reaching from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1036 mb Azores high dominates the Atlantic Basin, and extends
weakly southwestward to north of the Caribbean. This pattern is
producing moderate to fresh trade winds across all but the NW
portions of the Caribbean, except for strong winds off of
Colombia. Low level trade wind convergence along with modest
upper level divergence is supporting scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms off Panama and Nicaragua. Seas are 4 to 6 ft east
of 80W. Gentle to moderate NE breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, High pressure centered northeast of the
Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most
of the basin through the forecast period. Winds and seas will
lessen a bit on Tue into Wed as the high pressure departs
eastward, before another ridge build across the western Atlantic soon
thereafter. A broad surface trough is approaching the eastern
Caribbean and will continue westward over the next few days.
Moderate to rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE
Caribbean passages through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Significant Seas in the Central Atlantic.

A cold front is stalling across the waters off NE Florida, from
30N80W to just north of Cape Canaveral, where a few showers and
thunderstorms are evident along of the boundary. Farther east, a
surface trough is analyzed along 67W, north of 25N. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted east of the trough to 62W
and north of 26N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are occurring west of 74W and north of 26N and also
south of 24N and east of 74W.

As discussed in the Special Features section, a surface trough
extends along 60W from 11N to 25N, moving west at 15. Aside from
the winds and seas described in the Special Features section,
moderate to fresh breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the
tropical Atlantic waters of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stalled cold front off NE
Florida is expected to stall today, before lifting northward
tonight. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas
north of 28N and west of 74W tonight and Tue as low pressure moves
from the northern Gulf of America northeastward to the Carolinas.
These southerly winds will shift SW Tue night into Wed, north of
28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast
Tue night. This front will reach from near Bermuda to South
Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu.
Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will prevail northeast
through east of a trough currently along 60W that will move
westward into the waters N of the Leeward Islands tonight through
Tue. The trough will then pass just N of Puerto Rico on Wed.

$$
Stripling