623
AXNT20 KNHC 102101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Dec 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues
southwestward to 08N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ which
continues to 02.5N33W to 03N40W to near 01.5N48W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N
between 23W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is analyzed over the western Gulf. Otherwise, high
pressure prevails across the Gulf. Moderate northeast winds
prevail over the southeastern Gulf, where seas are in the 3-5 ft
range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, generally
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will quickly push across the E
Gulf tonight into tomorrow before dissipating by Fri. The front
will be accompanied by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds.
Afterwards, conditions across the entire Gulf will be quiescent
for next couple of days as subtle high pressure prevails. A
strong cold front should reach the N waters on Sun with increasing
winds and building seas behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean,
where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, light to gentle
winds, and seas of 2-3 ft, are noted.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the
Bermuda- Azores High and the Colombian Low will continue to
produce widespread fresh to strong trades over the central and E
Caribbean for the next several days. Similarly, trades over the
tropical North Atlantic will generally be fresh to strong with
seas to 10 ft in large E swell through early next week. Some of
this large swell will also funnel through the Atlantic passages in
the Lesser Antilles. A cold front should reach the Yucatan
Channel on Mon with increasing winds and seas behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary extends from 31N43W to the Florida Straits.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is along the
boundary. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are found
N of the front. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
discussion waters, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near
27N38W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center. Fresh to locally strong winds are S of 20N. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range
south of the front to 20N and west of 50W. Elsewhere, seas of 7-10
ft prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will
dissipate late tonight. Fresh to strong W winds will develop
north of the Bahamas tonight ahead of our next cold front. The new
front should emerge off of the Florida/Georgia coast late tonight
and extend from near 31N74W to the Florida Straits tomorrow
morning, moving to 31N62W to the Turks and Caicos Fri morning, and
dissipating in our NE waters from 31N55W to 27N61W Sat morning.
Winds north of 27N both ahead and behind the cold front will be
fresh to strong on Thu and Fri. Additionally, 8-10 ft seas due to
mixed SE and N swell will impact the waters south of 25N east of
65W tonight and extending through early next week. Winds will
improve across forecast waters Fri night through the weekend.
Another cold front will reach the waters north of the Bahamas Sun
afternoon with increasing winds and building seas occurring
behind the front.

$$
AL