896
AXNT20 KNHC 010838
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Nov 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 65W south of 22N, moving
westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 14N to 18N between 60.5W and 68.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coast of
Mauritania at 18N16W and extends southwestward to 08N35W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 05N50W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is depicted from 02N to 13N between 12W to
46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Ridging dominates the basin with light to gentle winds. Seas are
1-2 ft across the NW half of the basin, and 2-4 ft across the SE
half in remnant swells from a well passed cold front. A very dry
and stable continental airmass has settled in over the region
inhibiting deep layer moisture, with no convection presently
occurring over the Gulf.

For the forecast, winds will veer to the SE and S over the
western Gulf today ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the NW Gulf tonight into Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate
to locally rough seas are expected in the wake of the front
forecast to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico by
Sun morning, and from central Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche by Mon morning, then SE of the basin by Tue morning.
Winds and seas behind the front should gradually decrease into
midweek across the western Gulf, but linger somewhat in the
eastern Gulf due to a tight gradient.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave over the
eastern Caribbean.

A surface trough is analyzed from SE Cuba to offshore southern
Nicaragua. Scattered moderate convection is found along the
trough and over the SW Caribbean. Earlier ASCAT satellite data
pass revealed moderate to fresh N-NE winds off the coasts of
eastern Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh trades are S of
18N and E of 76W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail.
Seas are 3-5 ft in the Caribbean E of 76W, as well as just NW of
the surface trough, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface trough from SE Cuba to offshore
southern Nicaragua will linger through tonight with moderate to
locally fresh N-NE winds just W of it. Fresh to locally strong E
to SE winds are expected across the eastern Caribbean beginning
today in the wake of a tropical wave moving across the region.
These winds will expand to the central Caribbean tonight as the
wave continues to move westward and a ridge reaches the NE
Caribbean. Moderate to locally rough seas will be associated with
the wave. By early next week, mainly moderate to locally fresh
trade winds will dominate the east and central Caribbean.
Meanwhile, a cold front may push into the NW Caribbean by early
Mon while the above mentioned tropical wave may reach the western
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N60W to the SE Bahamas.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near the
axis of the front per conventional satellite imagery. Mainly
gentle to locally moderate winds dominate the waters N of 22N and
W of 50W. Large seas of 7-11 ft in mixed SW and NW swell are N of
27N between 51W and 72W. A cold front is in the eastern Atlantic
from 31N29W to 28N38W. Active scattered moderate convection is
noted within 360 nm SE of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are
N of 25N within 180 nm E of the front along with 7-11 ft seas,
with fresh to strong NE winds N of 29N and W of the front to 37W
along with similar seas. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas
are found S of 17N and W of 35W in the wake of a tropical wave now
in the eastern Caribbean and with ridging just to the N. Winds are
moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters along with
5-7 ft seas in mixed swells.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken to
a remnant trough through the weekend. Rough seas N of 27N and E
of 75W will subside through tonight. Another cold front may impact
the region early next week, slowly shifting SE while weakening
into midweek. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas may follow
through front initially. Meanwhile, fresh winds and locally rough
seas will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Sun as
a tropical wave moves through the E Caribbean with building high
pressure to the NE.

$$
Lewitsky