Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
835 AXNT20 KNHC 061007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Dec 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1005 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 05N35W to 01N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 11N and between 13W and 29W. GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front extends from near Yankeetown, Florida to 26N90W, then becomes a stationary front to near Veracruz, Mexico. A few showers are noted behind the front. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the basin and these marine conditions will persist into Sun afternoon. A new cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Sun evening and sweep over the basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW-N winds may develop off Veracruz Mon afternoon and evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean and W Cuba. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cluster of showers associated with a weak surface trough are moving into the NW Caribbean, extending from 14N to 18N and between 79W and 84W. Pockets of low-level moisture are also bringing isolated showers to the eastern and central Caribbean. High pressure north of the area continues to support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas in the eastern and central Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front may approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the area through Wed. High pressure will build in by the middle of next week, leading to strong winds and rough seas in the south- central Caribbean into late next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N77W to Palm Coast, Florida. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas are noted ahead of the front to 70W and north of 30N. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 23N and west of 55W. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. A frontal trough extends from 31N47W to 24N61W and moderate to locally strong SW winds and seas of 6-10 ft are found east of the trough to 35W and north of 27N. A broad subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb high pressure in the far eastern Atlantic to the Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas south of 22N and between Africa and Lesser Antilles. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the winds and seas associated with the front off NE Florida will push eastward quickly today into Sun. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central Florida by early Sun morning and dissipate Sun evening. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold front will move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue. Conditions will improve late Tue into Wed. $$ Delgado