697
AXNT20 KNHC 061802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Dec 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from a 1011 mb low analyzed
at the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and then extends to 04N21W and
then to 04N26W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N26W to 03N39W and
then to 09N61W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
observed S of 12N and E of 30W. Scattered moderate convection is
also seen from 07N to 11N between 50W and 58W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Big Bend of Florida to near
29N86W where it becomes a warm front. The warm front then bends
westward and southward into the SW Gulf near 21N96W, followed
then by another stationary front that extends southward to the
Mexican coast between Veracruz and Minatitlan. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 24N to 26N between 93W and 95W, with
widely scattered showers seen north and west of these frontal
boundaries. Scatterometer data from 1505 UTC indicated a weak
surface low forming along the front near 25N95W, with locally
fresh to strong winds in cyclonic flow surrounding the low.
Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail north of the frontal
boundaries, with moderate or weaker S to SE winds south of the
fronts. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend
to 28.5N87W, then becomes nearly stationary to 26N94W to just S of
Veracruz, Mexico. A few clusters of showers continue along and
behind the stationary portion of the front. Moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail N and W of the front and will
persist into Sun afternoon. A new cold front is expected to enter
the NW Gulf Sun evening and overtake the current front, while
sweeping across the basin into early next week. This will lead to
fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the
front. Gale-force NW to N winds may develop off Veracruz Mon
afternoon and evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed
as the front stalls across the NW Caribbean and W Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cluster of showers associated with a weak surface trough are
moving across the western Caribbean, with convection observed from
12N to 18.5N and W of 80W. Elsewhere across the basin, the
pressure gradient between the Colombia low and higher pressure to
the north drives fresh to strong trades across the central
Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades in the eastern Caribbean.
Much of the Caribbean W of 80W is seeing moderate or weaker trades
prevail. Seas of 5-8 ft are prevalent E of 80W, with seas of 2-5
ft W of 80W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between weak high
pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and
eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
A persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic
passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, a weakening cold front will approach the
northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the area through
Wed. High pressure will build in by the middle of next week,
leading to strong winds and rough seas in the south- central
Caribbean into late next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N77W to the NE FL coast.
Moderate ot locally fresh winds prevail on both sides of the
boundary with no notable convection nearby. In the central
Atlantic, a frontal remnant trough extends from near 31N45W to
24N62W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
along and near the trough axis. A recent scatterometer pass
indicated moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of this trough, N of
26N and out to about 35W. To the east, a weak 1019 mb low is
analyzed near 30N35W. The surface winds around this low and ahead
of a cold front to the north helping to maintain numerous moderate
convection N of 30N between 31W and 43W. In the east Atlantic, a
persistent upper level low embedded within a broad upper level
trough is leading to a large area of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 12N to 20N and E of 25W, as well as
over the waters between the Canary Islands and the coast of
Morocco.

Outside of convection, surface ridging prevails across much of the
Atlantic. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6-9 ft prevail across
much of the basin S of 20N, as well as an area from 23N to the
Canary Islands and E of 20W. Much of the Atlantic elsewhere and
away from frontal boundaries is seeing moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front has stalled across the
far NW waters from 31N78W to near Palm Coast, Florida. Fresh to
locally strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas are noted ahead
of the front to 65W and north of 30N. These winds and seas will
shift quickly eastward today into Sun, as the front begins to move
eastward. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central
Florida by early Sun morning and dissipate Sun evening. Looking
ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold front will
move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next
week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building
seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue. The cold front
will reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of
Florida Mon evening, then weaken and stall along about 27N by Tue
evening. Large N swell generated behind the front will diminish
across the area waters on Wed.

$$
Adams