367
FXUS61 KBGM 150608 CCA
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
108 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building in will lead to a brief reprieve from
the active pattern with dry weather expected into tomorrow
morning. A brief warmup tomorrow will be accompanied with rain
in the afternoon into tomorrow night. A strong cold front moving
through will lead to the return of lake effect snow showers for
the end of the weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Surface high pressure building in from the southwest and weak
ridging aloft will bring an end to the scattered lake effect
rain and wet snow showers around the area by early this evening.
Dry conditions are expected tonight through tomorrow morning
with lows tonight mainly in the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Lows
can reach the upper teens though toward the Tug Hill. The
reprieve from the wet weather will be brief as rain begins to
overspread the area from the west tomorrow afternoon ahead of
an approaching warm front. The warm front is expected to move
through by late afternoon or early evening, setting up a non-
diurnal temperature curve. This combined with the ridging aloft
will lead to a surge of milder air as high temperatures range
from the mid 40s to the mid 50s later in the day. Some places in
the eastern Catskills and toward the Tug Hill will actually
have high temperatures occurring during the evening hours prior
to a strong cold front being dragged across the area as a
surface low passes by just to the north of the CWA en route to
New England. With the area being squarely in the warm sector
tomorrow afternoon and evening, there is a little bit of
instability aloft with MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg along with
strong shear, so a rumble or two of thunder can`t be ruled out,
especially west of I-81.

By the late evening hours Saturday night, the steadier rainfall
is expected to move off to the east, but lake enhanced showers
are expected to continue as the cold front pushes through
overnight and a northwesterly flow sets back up. Lows range from
the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As colder Canadian air filters in from the northwest, 850mb
temperatures fall from -3 to -4C Sunday morning to around -8C by
early evening. This will lead to mix of rain and snow showers
changing over to all lake effect snow. Model guidance does show
a multi-lake band connection setting up Sunday night which could
lead to a steadier, more intense band of snow into Monday.
While there remains some uncertainty as where the bands of snow
set up, one area that seems to be highlighted is near the
northern Finger Lakes and into the higher terrain south of the
NYS Thruway in Onondaga and Madison counties, so we`ll be
keeping a close eye on this. If we wind up with a steadier band
of snow, then snowfall rates may be able to overcome high
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across CNY to allow for
some accumulation beyond just elevated surfaces during the
daytime. Some of the valley areas in NE PA will reach the low
and mid 40s. Lows Sunday and Monday night are expected to be in
the 20s to around 30 degrees.

Gusty winds are also expected to develop on Sunday with a
strengthening pressure gradient over the region. This can lead
to wind gusts peaking between 30 and 40 mph, especially during
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect snow bands are expected to persist into Tuesday
before lifting off to the north. High pressure and upper level
ridging is expected to build in for midweek leading to the
return of quieter weather and some slight moderation in
temperatures into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will slide across the region this morning and
create mostly VFR conditions through 18-20Z. By this afternoon
light rain begins to move in from west to east, along with
lowering CIGs...down to MVFR and Fuel Alt between about 20-23z.
Have added TEMPO groups for periods of IFR CIGs between 23Z and
04Z before the winds shift to the west and ceiling heights rise
slightly with rain tapering off after 04Z. There could also be a
brief window for thunderstorms this afternoon...between 20Z and
00Z...at ELM, ITH, BGM and AVP.

Winds will be light and variable under 5 kts through 18Z. Winds
increase to 7-15 kts in the afternoon with a few gusts to 20
kts possible. LLWS is expected for a 4-7 hr window between
21Z and 04Z this evening.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Lingering light rain showers with MVFR to IFR
conditions possible through early Sun morning.

Sunday...Rain and snow showers likely early in the
day...transitioning to all snow showers in the afternoon and
evening. Potential for significant restrictions in the late-day
snow showers.

Monday...Scattered rain/snow showers possible along with
associated restrictions.

Tuesday...Lingering lake effect rain/snow showers with
restrictions still possible; especially CNY terminals.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BJT/MJM