591
FXUS61 KBGM 170004
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
704 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers will continue through Monday night.
A weak area of low pressure passes to our south Tuesday night
with high pressure building into the region behind it. The high
pressure will give way to several low pressure systems tracking
into the Great Lakes later this week bringing showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
700 pm update...
Updated WSW to add Chenango County to the winter weather
advisory as northwest to southeast lake effect bands will have
no problems getting into the northern portion of Chenango
county`s high terrain area. Also added northern Oneida County as
wrap around moisture and lake enhancement leads to low end
winter wx advisory criteria. Also updated snow map in these
areas with higher snow amounts to be more consistent with our
thinking.

Previous Discussion...
Fairly widespread rain and snow showers are moving northwest to
southeast across the region. Currently these are driven by
somewhat steep low level lapse rates and moisture off of Lake
Ontario. With the loss of instability tonight the precipitation
should organize into narrower bands. Temperatures will continue
to drop into the mid and upper 20`s overnight which will allow
the snow to accumulate with possible slick spots. We have also
seen a few wind gusts near 45 mph this afternoon and this
potential should continue into the early evening hours before
the pressure gradient relaxes.

West to northwest flow should continue to advect moisture off
of Lake Ontario through Monday night. SLight changes in wind
direction should allow the bands of lake effect snow to vary
some in location, limiting total accumulations in any one spot.
Leaned more toward the RGEM with the QPF given typical
performance with lake effect snow. Ratios should be reduced
somewhat during the day, closer to 10:1 given borderline
temperatures near freezing on Monday with 15:1 or so values at
night. Overall, this did not change the expected totals with
some 3-6, locally 8 inch amounts in the advisory area over the
course of a few days. Temperatures Monday night should fall into
the 20`s again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A little lake effect snow may linger. Still watching a weak low
passing to our south. A few models and ensemble members bring
the northern edge of precipitation into the Wyoming valley and
Poconos. Given the dry airmass in place wetbulbing should occur
so mainly light snow would fall if precipitation occurs. Daytime
temperatures with some breaks in the clouds should get into the
upper 30`s and 40`s then fall into the 20`s again Tuesday
night. Wednesday looks like the driest day with high pressure
building in and temperatures a few degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure gives way to several low pressure systems tracking
through the Great Lakes late this week into the weekend. Model
guidance still shows some timing and location differences with
these systems. Either way, warm moist air will stream into the
region with several rounds of showers. Highs should push into
the low 50`s by Friday for most of the area with lows warming
into the 40`s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered snow showers continue across the forecast area this
evening, which should transition into more solid, multi-band
lake effect after midnight. Variable conditions are expected
between VFR at times, with IFR in the heavier snow showers and
lake effect bands. The best chance to see occasional IFR
restrictions will be at SYR, ITH and BGM through the overnight
and early Monday morning timeframe. RME could also briefly see
some IFR vsby restrictions, especially this evening. Although a
brief snow shower or flurry cannot be totally ruled out at KAVP
and KELM, these two terminals should remain mostly VFR
throughout the period...with only short MVFR tempo groups added
here for evening snow showers.

On Monday, conditions should mainly gradually improve over the
area, between VFR to MVFR at times. The lake effect snow band
does lift north, toward SYR in the afternoon and early evening
hours, bringing renewed lower end MVFR restrictions at times.

Gusty northwest winds are expected throughout the period. Wind
gusts of 20-35kts are expected tonight and through Monday
morning/early afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night...Scattered snow showers and lake effect clouds,
with associated restrictions, mainly for SYR/RME. Winds still
breezy.

Tuesday...Lingering lake effect clouds at most of the
Central NY terminals with associated restrictions. Mainly VFR
for KAVP and KELM.

Tuesday night...Low chance for snow showers and restrictions at
KAVP.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Rain showers likely with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ009-017-
     018-025-036-044-045.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ015>018-022>025-036-
     037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...DJN/MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJG/MJM