550
FXUS61 KBGM 181727
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1227 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure moves through PA into the Mid Atlantic
tonight bringing some light snow to NEPA with up to an inch of
accumulation at higher elevations. High pressure builds in for
Wednesday into Thursday before another front approaches on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
1230 PM Update:

With the lower sun angle and weaker solar heating, lake induced
stratus tends to linger longer than modeled despite the cloud
deck being fairly thin. A few hours of sunshine is still likely,
mainly for the Southern Tier and south. A shortwave passing
through PA into the Mid Atlantic overnight helps develop some
light precipitation tonight in NEPA. The shortwave has trended
more amplified so chances of precipitation were raised in NEPA
and brushing the Southern Tier with QPF bumped up a couple
hundreths of an inch. SLRs were kept lower given that forecast
soundings barely have saturation into the dendritic growth zone
so while cloud ice is likely, the formation of dendrites is
unlikely or very sporadic with more columns keeping snow ratios
low. Another impact to potential snow is some dry air trying to
work its way into the developing low from the north so that may
lead to a sharp cut off in the precipitation from south to
north. Some mixing with rain is possible in the Wyoming valley
so left a rain snow mix but with wet bulbing the precip type may
stay all snow overnight.

Once the shortwave is through early Wednesday morning, upper
level ridging begins to build in. Given the increasing
temperatures at 850 mb, lake effect precipitation is unlikely
tomorrow into tomorrow night with lake temperatures falling into
the mid to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging flattens out Thursday into Thursday night as a trough
digs into the Northern Great Lakes. Several shortwaves pass by
late this week, one along the polar jet just to the north along
the US/Canada border and then another shortwave that passes
south along the subtropical jet. Ensembles have trended towards
a slightly stronger shortwave on the subtropical jet so that has
helped flatten the northern shortwave and heavier precipitation
is trying to shift north into parts of NEPA and southern NY. If
the southern shortwave is able to continue to trend north,
temperatures across the region will likely stay above freezing
with rain being the predominant precipitation type Thursday
night into the early Weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Zonal flow with fast moving shortwaves persist into the long
range with the polar jet and the subtropical jet merging over
the northeast. Precipitation chances in the long range has been
kept elevated as there is potential to get impacted by
shortwaves that are traveling on either the polar jet or
subtropical jet. Precipitation types are also uncertain as if
the shortwave originates off of the southern jet, then warmer
air and rain is likely but shortwaves from the northern jet may
bring in enough cold air for some snow. Right now, added
rain/snow into the grids for any temperatures forecast around
freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No changes to previous forecast or discussion:

VFR conditions expected across much of the region through the
TAF period. A low pressure system will pass to the south of the
area tonight, bringing a chance for snow or a rain/snow mix at
AVP after 06z. Fuel Alt restrictions are currently forecast, but
IFR ceilings will be possible if the moisture from the low can
push a little farther north than currently forecast. Confidence
is just not high enough at this time to include it in the TAF.


Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Sunday...Rain showers likely during the
day and possibly a wintry mix overnight with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...KL