931
FXUS63 KBIS 291753
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1153 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow and flurries will continue over much of western and
  central North Dakota, before ending this afternoon. Little to
  no additional accumulations are expected.

- Well below average temperatures are favored this weekend into
  early next week. Wind chill temperatures as low as 25 below
  zero will be possible both tonight and Sunday night.

- An active northwest flow is forecast for next week, with
  periodic chances for snow and fluctuations in daily
  temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

No major changes with the forecast. We`re continuing to see some
light snow over our southeastern counties, but the overall
trend of gradually moving out of the area continues. Enough
breaks in the clouds exist over western and central ND behind
this system to give us some sunshine. However, satellite and
surface obs indicate areas of low stratus and some flurries
continuing. This area of low clouds continues upstream into
Montana. Short ranges model soundings support these low clouds
remaining in place while high pressure gradually builds in from
the west. Also, satellite imagery shows some enhanced lake
effect clouds coming off Lake Sakakawea. These could reach the
Bismarck/Mandan area shortly.


UPDATE
Issued at 943 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Based on radar, surface obs and numerous webcams, have cancelled
the winter weather advisory for all of our counties. Widespread
light snow continues across mainly southeast ND, which will
continue to diminish and move southward. Another smaller area of
slightly enhanced radar returns over north central ND supported
by a shortwave trough moving through that region was
progressing eastward. Surface obs showing most visibility in the
3-5SM range. Updated forecast to increase pops across this
region. Otherwise, no change in forecast with light snow ending
everywhere this afternoon.


UPDATE
Issued at 611 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Light snow continues most areas, as the main upper level trough
approaches the region, with the more defined radar returns over
south central and southeastern North Dakota. Embedded impulses
within the flow also contributing to continued snow in eastern
MT, along with another area of low stratus moving towards my
west. Edits to the forecast were minor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Currently, upper level S/WV trough developing east into the
Dakotas early this morning, with its associated 700mb low
pushing south into north central/northeastern South Dakota.
Light snow continues across most of western and central ND,
with the more moderate to heavier snow now mainly to our south
now as forcing aloft associated with an upper jet streak moves
east, enhanced forcing with the mid level low farther south, and
decreasing isentropic upglide. However, will see continued
forcing for ascent ahead of the 500mb S/WV across the local area
for most of this morning, with the potential of another 1-2
inches of snow yet before things wind down later today. Thus,
opted to extend the Winter Weather Advisory to 18Z (noon CST)
with this product issuance.

Mid level wave continues southeast today, with northwest flow in
its wake and cold surface high pressure building into the
western Dakotas late afternoon. This surface high only slowly
builds east-southeast into tonight, lingering across the Dakotas
through Sunday before exiting to the southeast Sun night. While
cloud cover will be tricky to forecast, the general trend is
expected to be decreasing cloud cover today-tonight-through
Sunday, setting the stage for some cold nights tonight and Sun
night thanks to our recent snowfall. Widespread subzero lows are
forecast for the next couple of nights, along with min wind
chills nearing 25 below zero some locations.

We remain in a northwest flow regime through next week, with
embedded waves periodically moving through aloft. One of these
waves and an associated cold front is favored to impact the
region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing milder temperatures on
Tuesday, snow chances Tuesday night, and another cold period on
Wednesday. While NBM hasn`t caught on yet, would anticipate some
breezy winds with the cold FROPA as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Main challenge will be cloud cover leading to MVFR/IFR
conditions at times. The system that brought us the accumulating
snow yesterday and overnight continues to push away from the
region, with KJMS still receiving some light snow and low cigs
leading to IFR conditions. The main approach with the TAFs was
to maintain MVFR/IFR cigs throughout the forecast period and
continue the chance of some light snow (mostly based on current
obs) through early/mid afternoon. Forecast soundings (RAP, HRRR)
for TAF sites show saturated low level profiles at times which
is reflected in the forecast. Lake effect clouds and possibly
some light snow are also evident in satellite image approaching
KBIS, which would increase the likelihood of low cigs.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...JNS