885
FXUS63 KBIS 010554
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures around 10 to 20 degrees above average
  expected Wednesday and Thursday.

- Cooler temperatures return to end the week, with temperatures
  dipping below average to start the upcoming week.

- Rain chances return across the area to end the week and start
  the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

A few returns remain over the James River Valley. However,
ceilings are 10 kft or higher with dewpoint depressions of
around 10 degrees. Therefore, other than potentially a few
sprinkles, little precipitation is likely reaching the ground at
this time. However, a few legitimate showers or even a
thunderstorm or two could still develop overnight tonight.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

A few weak returns are starting to show up in eastern ND and
eastern MT as a surface trough and upper level wave move
through. These features could still bring a few isolated showers
or thunderstorms to the west and east tonight. Slight PoPs in
the forecast remain on track given current radar trends. Thus
little needing updating at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Limited updates needed early this evening. Isolated showers have
formed in the northeast, while some weak showers are trying to
form in the south central areas near the SD/ND border. As a
surface trough and upper level wave moves through tonight there
could be a few thunderstorms in the west and east. There is some
modest elevated cape and increased shear tonight, although the
atmosphere is fairly dry and capped. Thus the current isolated
thunderstorms chances in the forecast remain on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Current surface analysis places low along the
Alberta/Saskatchewan border stretching into central/eastern
Montana, while ridge stretches from Ontario into the Midwest.
Upper level analysis places ridge over the Midwest into western
Ontario, with deep low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Over
our area, south/southeasterly winds continue between the
aforementioned surface features, with some clouds noted mainly
over the James River Valley region.

For tonight, a few showers and maybe a rumble or two of thunder
will be possible over the James River Valley region as a modest
wave lifts through the area, but expect and activity to be weak
and isolated. Some additional showers possible late tonight over
the west as aforementioned surface low lifts northeasterly and
its affiliated trough passes over.

On Wednesday, with the exception of some lingering showers over
the west, quiet weather is expected with another very warm day
on tap as thermal ridge remains over the region. Highs remain
around 10 to 20 degrees above average.

The warm temperatures continue into Thursday along with dry
conditions. Changes start to come late Thursday into Friday as
aforementioned upper low off the Pacific Northwest moves onshore
and digs southerly as it opens up during its approach. This
will start bringing precipitation chances to the area, along
with some thunderstorms. Latest runs of the CSU Machine Learning
Probabilities indicate a low chance for severe mainly over
eastern portions of our area Friday into Saturday. Cooler air
will also start gradually working its way into our area.

Going into early next week, precipitation chances linger over
various parts of the area and temperatures drop below average
per latest NBM guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

A few returns are present over the James River Valley, though
presently ceilings remain high at around 10 kft, with dry air in
place. Therefore, suspect little if any moisture is reaching
the ground at this time. A few showers may enter western ND
Wednesday morning, with the terminal most likely impacted to be
KXWA. Breezy southerly winds should gradually diminish from west
to east through the day Wednesday. Otherwise, LLWS is
occurring/expected across much of central ND tonight before
rapidly diminishing as the sun rises.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Telken