512
FXUS63 KBIS 130532
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1132 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through the remainder of the workweek, with
  temperatures peaking on Friday. Forecast highs Friday range
  from the upper 50s northeast to near 70 southwest.

- Widespread precipitation chances are low through the weekend.
  There is a 20 percent chance of precipitation Friday night
  into Saturday morning. Then 20 to 30 percent precipitation
  chances return to start the next workweek.

- Breezy conditions may return on Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 942 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Sky cover was the only weather element modified for this product
issuance, with upper level clouds streaming east into the
region. Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape.

UPDATE
Issued at 550 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

There were no noteworthy changes to the forecast for tonight
with this latest forecast issuance. Mainly blending hourly obs
and updated for trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Surface ridge will push eastward tonight, keeping light winds
eventually becoming southerly. Southwest flow aloft combined
with a weak shortwave will bring increased mid to high clouds
through the night. The strong geomagnetic storm is expected to
continue through tonight, thus northern lights could again be
found across the state in areas with limited cloud cover. Look
for mild overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s tonight along
with dry conditions. Dry and warm conditions then look to be
found on Thursday with a developing surface low bringing
continued southerly flow. Forecast highs today and yesterday
exceeded NBM forecasts, thus inserted NBM75th for high
temperatures on Thursday with better mixing and warm air moving
into the area. Look for highs generally in the mid 40s to mid
50s for most areas, with upper 50s to mid 60s southwest. Mostly
clear skies are expected for Thursday and Thursday night.
Thursday night also looks dry with mild lows in the 30s to lower
40s. Temperatures peak ahead of a cold front on Friday. Blended
in NBM90th for Friday to account for ample heating across the
area. This brings forecast highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
Breezy southerly winds ahead of this mentioned cold front may
also be found. Cold front is then forecast to move through
Friday night through Saturday morning. Confidence is increasing
in at least slight chances for showers along this front, with
widespread slight chances currently in the forecast. Mainly rain
is expected, with perhaps some isolated rain and snow showers.
Post frontal day then looks to be found Saturday, with cooler
more near normal temperatures and breezy northwest winds. ECMWF
EFI values for Friday and Saturday still look low, indicating
highlight level winds are generally not expected. This matches
well with a lack of strong pressure rises and cold air advection
with this frontal passage. Mainly dry conditions are also
expected for the remainder of Saturday. Northwest flow aloft
with less of a pressure gradient then looks to be found for
Sunday. This will keep cooler more near normal temperatures and
mainly dry conditions. The increased ridging at the surface
should bring less winds as well on Sunday.

Early to mid next week, clusters showing a ridge building
somewhere in the western or central interior of the US.
Depending on cluster solution, broad trough in the western US
will attempt to erode or push weak shortwaves through this
ridge. High uncertainty remains with this pattern as far as
chances for precipitation. Currently NBM has slight to chance
PoPs (20 to 40 percent) Monday through Wednesday to account for
this uncertainty. With lingering cooler air in place, look for
cooler temperatures during this time period, bringing chances
for rain and snow depending on any wave timing. Perhaps some
freezing rain is also possible with any weak wave moving
through, although confidence in this is low. Signal for strong
winds is currently not present. Perhaps some breezy winds will
be found if any shortwave moves through, although confidence in
strong winds are low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period.
Light and variable winds tonight will become southerly Thursday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Telken