213
FXUS63 KBIS 162124
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
324 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog lingering over parts of northwest North Dakota into
  this evening. This could be occasionally dense.

- Low to medium precipitation chances (20 to 40 percent)over
  various parts of the area Monday evening, and Tuesday evening
  through Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Current surface analysis places lee side trough to the east of
the central Rockies, with high stretching from northern
Saskatchewan southward into the Midwest. Upper level analysis
places low over Nevada, while ridge stretches from the lee of
the northern Rockies southeastward into southern plains. Over
our area, story of the day has been persistant fog lingering
over parts of northwest North Dakota, but over the past couple
of hours notable improvement has occurred, though a few dense
spots linger over parts of Divide, Williams and McKenzie
Counties.

For tonight, compact upper low over Nevada lifts over the
Rockies along the Colorado/Wyoming border, while aforementioned
lee trough pushes a bit east. This should keep a modest
east/southeast wind going over our area tonight. Although this
is not significant by any means, this may keep widespread dense fog
from re-developing over the northwest. With that said, some
patchy fog remains a concern so will keep the mention of that
through the evening and re-evaluate. Otherwise, weather remains
quiet.

On Monday, upper low pushes east eventually sliding over
Nebraska. This should be far enough south to keep most
precipitation south of our border, but do have some low
precipitation chances along our southern tier in case some
makes its way a bit further to the north. If precipitation does
develop, it should be mainly rain in the late afternoon/evening
hours, though can not rule out a few flakes later in the
evening.

On Tuesday ridge passes over the region in the wake of the
departing system while another compact low slides down along the
west coast. This should keep conditions quiet through the day
though a weak impulse sliding through brings a slight chance of
light rain Tuesday night. Flow then ends up splitting with the
aforementioned upper low, with a northern stream trough pushing
into our area bringing low precipitation chances Wednesday
night.

NBM then suggests dry weather going into next weekend with west
to northwest flow, but would not be surprised if a stray impulse
pushing through the flow could lead to a little precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Over far northwest North Dakota including the KXWA terminal,
dense fog producing LIFR ceilings and visibility has been
reluctant to dissipate, thus expect it to linger into the early
afternoon, with improvement after 19Z. Conditions will then
gradually improve becoming VFR by late afternoon. Further east
over north central North Dakota into south central and parts of
southeast North Dakota, lower clouds will linger through much of
the afternoon, but overall look to hold just above MVFR levels,
though localized spots of MVFR ceilings remain possible. Most
locations are expected to be VFR tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS