515
FXUS63 KBIS 022307
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
507 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures, breezy conditions, and low to medium (10
  to 40 percent) chances for light snow showers southwest today.

- An active weather pattern is forecast for the rest of this
  week, resulting in periodic low to medium chances for snow,
  breezy conditions, and moderate to large fluctuations in day-
  to-day temperatures.

- Very cold temperatures are forecast tonight into Wednesday
  morning and Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with wind
  chills possibly as low as the mid 20s below zero.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 507 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Within the last hour, drizzle has been observed in the
Bismarck/Mandan area. This can be seen on radar imagery and is
located directly ahead of the southward advancing cold front,
but its westward and eastward extent is uncertain due to the
overshooting radar beams. Automated surface observations at the
Bismarck Airport reported BR with around 6 miles visibility when
this passed through. Similar observations have been noted at
Dickinson, but not Glen Ullin. The forecast has been updated to
include this area of drizzle as it moves south-southeast through
south central North Dakota early this evening. Even though snow
was not observed, we kept it as a possible precipitation type as
RAP soundings show the top of the low level saturated layer
should be cooling to near -10 C and developing steeper lapse
rates. Surface temperatures where this drizzle is falling remain
near to above freezing, but will quickly be falling below
freezing. The very light precipitation (trace amounts) is not
expected to additionally impact travel beyond any roads that
became wet from snow/ice melt this afternoon undergoing
refreezing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A persistant Hudson Bay Low continues to promote cyclonic flow
across the northern Plains this afternoon. At the surface, a low
pressure system is slowly moving from west to east across the
southern Canadian Prairies, dragging an associated warm front
with it across North Dakota through the day today. Behind this
warm front, high temperatures this afternoon are broadly
expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, though are somewhat
tempered by the lingering snowpack. A following cold front
moving from north to south this afternoon and evening will help
promote somewhat breezy north to through this period, with
speeds from 15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH, while turning winds from
the west this afternoon to the north northwest overnight.
Regarding precipitation this afternoon, confidence is increasing
that a dry conditions within the DGZ will limit the measurable
snow across much of the forecast area this afternoon. The best
potential remains in the southwest where the column remains a
little more saturated, but even here we don`t anticipate much
more than a dusting of snow. Otherwise, low temperatures
tonight drop well into the single digits below zero behind the
aforementioned cold front this afternoon, with portions of the
northwest evening falling into the negative teens. With breezy
winds persisting through early Wednesday morning, wind chills
across portions of the northwest and along the coteau could drop
into the mid 20s below zero.

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the northern Plains
through much of the coming week, meaning we will have to take
each day at a time. Wednesday will go back to being colder, with
highs broadly in the single digits to lower teens, with dry
conditions persisting. By late Wednesday into early Thursday, a
low pressure system progged to start diving to the south
southeast out of northern Alberta. Similar to today, a warm
front associated with this system will cut from west to east
across North Dakota, promoting highs broadly back into the upper
20s and lower 30s Thursday afternoon and breezy west winds
through the afternoon. A series of shortwaves moving the broad
northwesterly flow pattern late Thursday through this weekend
will reintroduce chances for snowfall across the forecast area.
An initial push of light snow is possible across late Thursday
through Friday as the aforementioned low pressure system digs
into the northern Plains, though accumulations may be quite
limited during this period as ensemble members hint at limited
moisture within the DGZ during this period. A more energetic
wave is then expected to move in late Friday through Saturday,
promoting medium to high (50 to 70 percent) chances for snow
across much of the forecast area. As it stands, the ensemble
advertises the probability for at least 1 inch of snowfall to
broadly be from 30 to 50 percent across the forecast area, with
a low to medium chance for portions of the west and south
central to exceed 2 inches. Notably, there exists an minority
cluster (approximately 15 percent membership) which captures
some limited banding potential across portions of the forecast
area Friday night into Saturday, which could drive these amounts
even higher. We will continue to monitor forecast trends
through the week.

With northwesterly flow expected to persist Sunday through
early next week, off and on chances for precipitation will
continue through this period. After somewhat cooler temperatures
on Saturday, broadly in the upper single digits to upper teens,
the ensemble advertises a gradual warming trend through this
same period, with highs broadly back into the 30s by Tuesday. In
the longer term, climate analogues lean toward a return of
cooler temperatures through the later half of the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR ceilings have begun to move into the northern portions of
the forecast area at the start the 18Z TAF period. Light snow is
possible across portions of southwestern North Dakota this
afternoon through early tonight, with occasional flurries
possible elsewhere through this evening. With this update, have
added PROB30 groups at KDIK. MVFR ceilings are expected to
continue spreading across the forecast area, including over all
terminals, through this afternoon and evening. Periods of IFR
ceilings are also possible, especially in the southwest and
where light snow does develop. Ceilings are anticipated to start
lifting through Wednesday afternoon. Breezy west winds are
expected this afternoon, turning north westerly overnight as a
cold front drops in from the southern Canadian Prairies. Winds
are anticipated to diminish through mid to late Wednesday
morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Adam