230
FXUS63 KBIS 081221
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
621 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will change to snow southwest and far south central this
  morning, with snow ending from north to south through the
  morning and early afternoon. Additional snow accumulations up
  to an inch.

- Significantly colder this weekend, with highs in the 20s and
  30s, and lows in the single digits to teens above zero. A
  quick warm-up to near or above average temperatures is favored
  next workweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Low pressure over far southwest North Dakota this morning will
drop southeast through central South Dakota. Areas of rain
southwest will change to snow this morning. Snow will end today
from north to south. The back edge of the snow is currently
progressing south through the northern tier counties.

We adjusted pops based on latest radar and a blend of the
latest short term guidance. Otherwise no updates to the current
forecast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Currently, low pressure is situated over southwest North Dakota.
A lobe of 850mb warm advection and FG forcing is pushing east
through central ND, resulting in light snow from north central
ND into the JRV, diminishing as it pushes into eastern ND. Back
a bit to the west, from west central into south central ND, the
higher lapse rates and warmer temperatures have resulted in
more convective nature to the reflectivities and more of a rain
snow mix as temperatures in the mid 20s south central increase
into the lower to mid 30s west central. The surface low looks to
be over west central ND, with strong westerly winds surging
from east central Montana into far southwest North Dakota. The
Bowman radar shows an area of showers from around Beach to
Hettinger, with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

Early this morning (pre-dawn) the surface low will drop
southeast into far southwest/south central ND by around 12 UTC,
then continuing southeast through central SD through the morning
hours. Strong west to northwest winds are expected over far
southwest ND during the pre-dawn hours. At this time the
strongest winds remain from southwest Montana into northwest SD.
The strongest winds in ND will probably be confined to portions
of western Bowman and maybe far southwest Slope counties. No
plans to issue a Wind Advisory at this time.

As the surface low drops south into SD, any rain falling in the
southwest and far south central will change to snow. Forecast
soundings indicate warm temperatures are at the surface so
expect a transition from rain to snow, not freezing rain. Once
temperatures drop below freezing this morning they will remain
below freezing through the day. Anticipate some patchy ice on
elevated surfaces today.

In general, snow will taper off this morning from north to
south. There could be some lingering light snow over southern
portions of the forecast area into the early afternoon.
Additional accumulations of an inch or less are expected, with
the majority seeing under a half inch of additional snow today.

Skies are expected to clear tonight with lows mainly in the
upper single digits into the upper teens. A few ares in the
northwest could see temperatures fall into the lower single
digits. Although not likely, there will be a low probability
(At or below 20%) of seeing a below zero reading along the
International Border.

Sunday will remain cold, but with mostly sunny skies, as high
pressure drifts southeast across the forecast area. Highs are
expected to range form the mid 20s to lower 30s, with a few mid
30s far southwest.

After one more cold morning Monday, with lows into the teens,
we quickly warm into the 50s southwest by Monday afternoon, and
into the 40s and 50s across the forecast area by Tuesday. We
then remain seasonable to mild with highs mainly in the 40s and
50s through the work week, with the warmest readings in the
southwest. Dry conditions are expected through the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...Widespread MVFR ceilings this morning with improving
conditions this afternoon. VFR conditions expected tonight...

Low pressure in southwest North Dakota will move southeast
today. Mostly MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings and mostly MVFR
to occasional IFR visibilities in snow ending from north to
south this morning into the early afternoon hours. Ceilings are
expected to improve to VFR by this evening most areas. However,
areas of mostly MVFR ceilings can not be ruled out, but at this
time too uncertain to include in any TAF. Surface flow turns
north early in the TAF period and will be breezy at time over
the southern TAF sites. Winds remain northerly tonight around
6-12 knots.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH