602
FXUS63 KBIS 220550
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1150 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild with above average temperatures this weekend.

- Below average temperatures starting Tuesday through the end
  of November.

- Strong northwest winds are forecast Monday night through
  Wednesday, with the strongest winds on Tuesday.

- Low to medium chances for accumulating snow Monday night
  through Tuesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Little updates needed at this time. Mainly updated Aviation
discussion for 06z.

UPDATE
Issued at 842 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The near-term forecast remains in good shape. 00Z CAMs show
potential for some light (freezing) rain briefly clipping the
Turtle Mountains area late tonight as the mid level shortwave
passes through. The probability of measurable precipitation,
including just a trace of ice, remains under 15 percent.

UPDATE Issued at 525 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

No forecast changes are needed for this update. Current
conditions and trends have been blended in. A mid level
shortwave ejecting off the southern Canadian Rockies this
evening could bring some gusty winds across the state late
tonight through Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Currently northwest flow is present over the Northern Plains
while an upper low sits over the Central Plains. Another low
system sits in Southern California. As this slight ridging
pattern continues through the weekend, so will the mild above
average temperatures. It won`t be until Monday when the weather
starts to shift.

Starting Sunday, a shortwave trough will develop near Vancouver
Canada. By Monday afternoon the state will be in diffluent
southwest flow. At the surface a cold front will enter the
state, extending off a low in Alberta. However, there is
location uncertainty as the models and ensembles have slightly
different paths for the shortwave and low. Some have it coming
right through the Northern Plains, others keep the majority of
the system in southern Canada. Regardless, the last 48 hours of
the NBM the probabilities for precipitation has increased to a
higher end medium chance (45-50%). This whole system will last
through Wednesday morning. On the backside of the low, with the
cold frontal passage, strong northwest winds are seemingly
likely. The EFI forecast has increasing values over the last 24
hours. The EFI is now showing 0.66 values which is getting ever
so closer to our 0.80 for Advisory level winds.


For snow amounts through the system the NBM probabilities are:

1 inch: Along and north of the Interstate there is a 50 to 70
percent chance, south of that is 20 percent.

2 inches: Along and north of HWY 200 there is a 40 to 60 percent
chance. South of that is around a 20 to 40 percent.


There is low confidence in location of all this too with all the
different model outcomes. The GEFS models have the system more
south with higher QPF, compared to the NAM and Euro ensembles.
Those have the low staying further north into Canada. The GEFS
seem like the outlier currently as even the NBM probabilities
are further north in northern ND and southern Canada. We have to
wait until we get much closer and the models line up better to
understand what might actually happen. Beyond this system, we
will remain below average temperatures with highs in the teens
and 20s. Lows will in the single digits, with a low chance of
negative lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with
some mid to high clouds at times. Winds will turn to the west-
northwest around 10 kts tonight through Saturday, and may become
gusty at times.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Anglin