022
FXUS63 KBIS 191146
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
546 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain ending from west to east this morning, though may
  linger over parts of the eastern ND this afternoon. Mostly dry
  tonight through this weekend.

- Above average high temperatures mostly in the 40s to low 50s
  to finish out the week.

- Below average temperatures are favored for the last few days
  of November.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 546 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Patchy fog has developed across much of the state, especially
in the north and southwest. Occasionally an observation reports
a drop down to quarter mile visibility, though visibility has
tended to recover relatively quickly in most instances so far.
Therefore, believe any dense fog is localized and likely limited
due to the widespread stratus deck. Otherwise, brought PoPs a
bit further north based on the latest radar trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Shortwave energy off central Canadian upper low pressure will
continue sliding across the Northern Plains today. This is
producing light rain in parts of southwestern, south central,
and eastern North Dakota. However, more moderate rain is falling
in localized parts of the southwest where a few observations
have exceeded a tenth of an inch. Of note, while some locations
are seeing moderate rainfall, bright banding is and will
continue to produce inflated reflectivities at times. Rain
should gradually end from west to east through the morning,
though may linger in the James River Valley through this
afternoon, and further east into the evening.

Once any rain ends today, northwesterly flow aloft will prevail
resulting in mostly dry conditions and relatively warm
temperatures through at least the weekend. There are indications
of a subtle shortwave with a little bit of moisture passing
through towards the end of the weekend. While the NBM doesn`t
currently produce mentionable PoPs, this feature is highlighted
by multiple periods of 5 to 10 percent PoPs. A more prominent
wave is possible during the first half of the next workweek,
with models consistently progging a clipper passing through the
region. Most models and recent model runs favor a more northern
track that would keep the highest impacts in Canada, though a
more southern track that could produce winter weather impacts
over the state definitely remains plausible as well.

While uncertainty remains in regard to potential precipitation,
higher confidence remains in a cooling trend to finish out the
month. Overall, there is little question in regard to colder
temperatures returning towards the latter half of next week. The
question is more so whether or not said temperatures become
seasonable or unseasonably cold, as well as the duration of such
colder temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Light rain and MVFR/IFR ceilings prevail across much of the
state early this morning. Patchy fog is also present, especially
in western and north central ND. This fog will likely dissipate
later this morning. Rain will gradually end from west to east
this morning, though may linger mainly in the east during the
afternoon hours. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected this
afternoon and evening before skies clear from west to east
tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken