874
FXUS63 KBIS 020903
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
403 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees above average are
  expected today, with a larger spread likely on Friday.

- Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are likely this weekend.

- Cooler temperatures return Saturday in the north and west,
  with temperatures dipping slightly below average across the
  state early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Quiet and warm conditions with light southerly winds are
expected for today. This will produce highs from around 80 to 85
degrees across most of the state, which is about 15 to 20
degrees above average for this time of year. Similar conditions
are on tap for Friday, though highs will be a bit cooler in the
far northwest (mid 70s) and a bit warmer in the far southeast
(around 90). This will be around 10 to 25 degrees above average.
A tightening pressure gradient from an initial passage of
surface low pressure will produce breezy winds in south central
and eastern portions of the state on Friday.

Beyond Friday is when the previously advertised major pattern
change is expected. While a split flow pattern looks to be in
place starting Friday, strong blocking high pressure over the
east CONUS/West Atlantic will force southern stream trough to
lift through the Northern Plains. Confidence is increasing in
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall, which may include a few
thunderstorms as well. Both SPC and CSU Machine Learning have
analyzed a marginal/marginal equivalent risk Saturday mainly for
far south central and southeastern ND. Should any severe
weather occur, it would likely be during a narrow window in the
late afternoon or early evening where marginally severe hail, or
a few severe wind gusts, are possible. That said, uncertainty
in severe weather potential remains high and will continue to
monitor for now.

In regard to aforementioned widespread moderate to heavy
rainfall, NBM now has a southwest to northeast axis of a 60 to
70 percent chance of an inch or more of rain from Bismarck
through Pembina. Probabilities then decrease somewhat rapidly
further to the northwest and southeast of this axis. Depending
on how this system evolves, a corridor containing two inches of
rain is not out of the question.

Other than rainfall potential, temperatures are expected to
become much cooler for the first half of next week, with highs
Sunday through Tuesday forecast to remain mostly in the 50s.
Lows Sunday night through Tuesday night will be mostly in the
30s, though some readings dropping into the 20s are possible as
well, especially Sunday night in the southwest. How cool each
night gets, especially Sunday night and Tuesday night, is highly
dependent upon the exact location and timing of passing surface
high pressure. Regardless, there is a high probability that
freeze headlines will be needed at some point, for some
locations, during the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken