928
FXUS63 KBIS 290848
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
348 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and occasionally breezy conditions
  continue through the middle of the week.

- Mostly dry conditions continue through the middle of the week,
  though a few stray showers, perhaps with a rumble or two of
  thunder, are possible.

- Cooler, more seasonable conditions, and 20 to 30 percent rain
  chances return at the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Upper level high over the eastern CONUS will gradually lift
northward through Tuesday before stalling over the Great Lakes
Region, while associated ridge amplifies through Wednesday.
This will continue advecting warm air over the Northern Plains.
Simultaneously, surface high over south central Canada will
propagate eastward over Ontario and Quebec resulting in warm,
relatively moist southerly flow prevailing at the surface. With
this, highs today will range from the 70s north to the mid 80s
south. After which, highs Tuesday through Thursday are forecast
to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of the state. Lows
are also progged to range mostly from the mid 50s to low 60s,
which is very warm for this time of year.

For the most part, conditions should remain dry through
Thursday. However, WAA today could force a few showers or even
a stray thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening, mainly
over the eastern half of the state. That said, confidence in
this development remains very low, so left out mentionable PoPs
for now. Embedded weak shortwave energy riding the western
extent of the ridge Tuesday through Thursday could result in
additional low end shower chances. However, most areas will
remain dry this week through the day Thursday.

Beginning Thursday night and to finish out the week, a
significant change in the pattern is likely. Multiple troughs,
arguably longwave in nature, will break down the aforementioned
ridge. This will bring much cooler air to the forecast area and
the return of precipitation chances. The latest evolution shows
that that precipitation chances Thursday night through this
weekend will mostly be quick moving waves with low chances
(around 20 to 30 percent) across much of the area. Confidence
is high that temperatures will return to more seasonable levels
later this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility are generally expected through the
period, though models show some hints at patchy fog developing
in southwestern and south central ND tonight. Confidence
remains too low to add to the TAFs at this time, however.
Otherwise, breezy easterly winds are expected across parts of
the state Monday, especially in the northwest.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken