329
FXUS63 KBIS 150957
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
357 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and mostly dry this weekend, with a low to medium of
  chance of light rain in southwest North Dakota this afternoon
  and evening.

- Temperatures remain closer to average for the upcoming work
  week, with highs mostly in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

- Low to medium chances for light mixed precipitation Monday
  through Thursday. Little to no impacts expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

North Dakota is under a zonal flow pattern this morning,
sandwiched between an upper level ridge over the Southern
Plains and an upper level low crossing northern Manitoba. A
cold front has passed southward through the state, and a
surface high pressure is currently analyzed over southwest
Saskatchewan/northeast Montana, drifting southeastward. The mid
to upper level cyclonic flow has maintained a large swath of
low to mid clouds across much of the region that models are
struggling to pick up on, lending to low forecast confidence in
their evolution.

The general expectation is that flow aloft will turn
northwesterly today as the surface high slides through Dakotas,
which should clear out at least some of the clouds from the
north and east. Southwest North Dakota is more likely to remain
cloudy through the day though, and an embedded low amplitude
shortwave traveling along a baroclinic zone with modest low
level frontogenesis could produce a band of light rain across
southwest North Dakota this afternoon, possibly shifting into
south central North Dakota this evening before dissipating
overnight. This signal has been consistent in high- resolution
guidance for over 24 hours, but with varying placement and
intensity of simulated reflectivity. Nevertheless, the maximum
HREF QPF with this system is only around a tenth of an inch,
and the probability matched mean is only a few to several
hundredths of an inch. Some snow could mix in along the colder
(northeast) side of the band, but no accumulation is expected.
High temperatures today will be significantly cooler but still
near to slightly above average, ranging from around 40 north to
near 50 southwest.

The southeastward progression of the surface high pressure is
forecast to stall tonight into Sunday as a trough digs into the
Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a potent wave over California
will begin to spin northeastward and force amplification of an
upper level ridge along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. The
transition to an anticyclonic flow pattern should keep Sunday
dry and allow a slight warmup, although a southeast surface wind
is not favorable for strong diurnal mixing of the boundary
layer. Forecast highs for Sunday range from around 40 northeast
to the lower 50s southwest. There is also a signal for fog
formation in models that simulate visibility across parts of
western and south central North Dakota early Sunday morning,
but there is not enough spatial and coverage consistency to add
this to the forecast at this time.

Much of the upcoming work week is forecast to feature a
predominant split southwest flow pattern over the Northern
Plains. This results in daily low to medium chances for
precipitation, but with high probabilities for only light QPF
(less than 0.10" daily) where precipitation occurs. Thermal
profiles do suggest mixed types, including a potential for
freezing rain/drizzle. It is difficult to have high confidence
in any particular aspect of the precipitation forecast in this
type of synoptic pattern, but there is an emerging signal for
southern North Dakota to be on the northern periphery of a
compact shortwave Monday night into Tuesday that could provide
enough low level warm air and moisture advection for a light
rain/drizzle event, with near-freezing surface temperatures.
There is also agreement in ensemble clusters for a more
progressive, but still split-flow shortwave crossing the central
CONUS late Wednesday into Thursday. Cluster analysis does
indicate the northern stream could cross the state, but the
probability of over a tenth of an inch of QPF with this system
is only around 20 to 30 percent. Overall, the general
expectation is for a cooler and cloudier work week with periods
of light precipitation. Little to no impacts from frozen
precipitation types are anticipated at this time, but will need
to monitor the Monday night/Tuesday morning timeframe for a
freezing drizzle potential. Deterministic NBM highs are in the
mid 30s to mid 40s, but there is a large spread in the daily
maximum distributions, and deterministic values are skewed to
the warmer side. This conflicts with the anticipation of
increased cloud cover, so would not be surprised to see the
high temperature forecast trend cooler as the time approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Ceilings across western and central North Dakota should mostly
remain at VFR levels early this morning, except for the far
southwest where LIFR conditions (both ceilings and visibility)
remain possible until closer to sunrise.

High pressure will build southeast over the forecast areas on
Saturday, which should clear out most of the lower clouds over
central ND. However, behind the surface high, warm advection
cloudiness is expected over eastern Montana and western ND,
which may push back into southwest ND, including KDIK, Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hollan
AVIATION...Hollan/TWH