371
FXUS63 KBIS 092132
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
332 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of snow and blowing snow will continue across northern
  and eastern portions of the state through tonight.

- Very strong winds expected through much of tonight, with
  gusts as high as 65 mph.

- Another round of snow will impact all of western and central
  North Dakota Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.
  Areas of freezing rain are also possible with this system,
  mainly in southwestern North Dakota.

- Below average temperatures are expected Wednesday through the
  upcoming weekend, with dangerous wind chills possible Thursday
  evening through Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Clipper system will continue move across the state through
tonight. Slightly different track of this low has delayed the
strong winds to an extent, although a secondary cold front will
push through tonight brining better cold air advection and
strong pressure rises. This could be the extra push the winds
need to be very strong this evening through tonight. Thus have
continued the High Wind Warning. Along this mentioned front will
be another round of snow. Across northern and central portions.
Accumulations for this round of snow look to be around 1 to 4
inches, although the combination of falling snow and strong
winds could bring areas of impactful blowing snow. Blizzard
conditions may still be tough to produce, although depending how
much fresh snow falls could be a possibility tonight. For now
have extended the current Winter Weather Advisory in north
central and eastern North Dakota through tonight. Look for
colder temperatures to move in behind this front, with lows in
the single digits north to the teens and 20s south. Given the
wet conditions today this could lead to a flash freeze tonight.
A brief ridge of high pressure them moves through Wednesday,
diminishing winds and perhaps bringing some partial clearing.
Highs on Wednesday will be colder in the east and generally in
the teens, while warm air lingers in the west with highs in the
20s to lower 30s. As this high pulls away a few light snow
showers are possible in the west Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday evening through Thursday the next round of impactful
winter weather looks to push through. Upper level wave looks to
move through bringing strong 850 mb warm air advection and
frontogenesis. Meanwhile the surface low moves parallel to this
boundary, providing for a longer residence time for
precipitation. Thus a band of moderate to heavy snow may set up
with this system. Meanwhile warm air aloft could also provide
for another round of freezing rain, with the highest chances of
this occurring currently in the southwest. There still is some
uncertainty in the models on how much snow and ice is forecast,
likely do to some ptype differences. However, today there was
high enough confidence in at least advisory level impacts from
this freezing rain and snow potential that a Winter Weather
Advisory was issued along, south, and west of the Missouri River
for Wednesday night through Thursday. Up to a tenth of an inch
of ice and 4 inches of snow are possible in this advisory area.
Winds will also increase through the day and night Thursday,
perhaps bringing some blowing snow potential. Lows Wednesday
night will be in the 20s southwest to near zero northeast, while
highs Thursday are forecast in the teens northeast to the 40s
southwest. These warmer temperatures in the southwest could
allow for some rain mixed in at times in the afternoon Thursday.

Behind the Thursday system looks to be an arctic cold front
Thursday night into Friday. This will bring breezy winds,
chances for snow and blowing snow, and much colder temperatures
with highs in the single digits above and below zero. Depending
on timing of this front, dangerous wind chills could also start
early Friday morning. Arctic airmass then lingers through much
of the weekend, bringing the potential for dangerous winds
chills. Lows each night are forecast to be in the teens to 20s
below zero, with highs struggling to get above zero. Sunday
could warm slightly although spreads in the NBM temperatures
remain large. Northwest flow also looks to continue through the
weekend. This could bring off and on chances for snow each day.
Right now the highest impacts 24 hour period could come Friday
evening through Saturday with the NBM chances for at least 4
inches at 20 to 70% especially in the southwest and south
central. Winds look to be fairly light during this time period
perhaps limited the chances for blowing snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow could linger
through today with higher chances in the north and east.
Ceilings will remain near MVFR heights today for most sites,
with some IFR conditions possible at sites that receive
precipitation. Strong northwest winds will also be found today
through this evening, with gusts over 50 knots expected. Snow
and blowing snow then lingers tonight, mainly east of a line
from KMOT to KBIS. MVFR to IFR conditions will be found to sites
east of this line. Elsewhere could see gusty winds and MVFR
ceilings through the night. Diminishing winds and sky cover then
looks to be found Wednesday morning. Ceilings are overall
expected to lift to VFR heights, with some MVFR lingering at a
few sites. Strong winds today through tonight could bring some
areas of low level wind shear.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
NDZ001>003-009>012-017>021-031-032-040-043.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ004-
005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday to
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Thursday for NDZ009-010-017>021-031>035-
040>046.
High Wind Warning until 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Wednesday for
NDZ022-023-025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin