635
FXUS63 KBIS 190951
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
351 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain ending from west to east this morning, though may
  linger over parts of the eastern ND this afternoon. Mostly dry
  tonight through this weekend.

- Above average high temperatures mostly in the 40s to low 50s
  to finish out the week.

- Below average temperatures are favored for the last few days
  of November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Shortwave energy off central Canadian upper low pressure will
continue sliding across the Northern Plains today. This is
producing light rain in parts of southwestern, south central,
and eastern North Dakota. However, more moderate rain is falling
in localized parts of the southwest where a few observations
have exceeded a tenth of an inch. Of note, while some locations
are seeing moderate rainfall, bright banding is and will
continue to produce inflated reflectivities at times. Rain
should gradually end from west to east through the morning,
though may linger in the James River Valley through this
afternoon, and further east into the evening.

Once any rain ends today, northwesterly flow aloft will prevail
resulting in mostly dry conditions and relatively warm
temperatures through at least the weekend. There are indications
of a subtle shortwave with a little bit of moisture passing
through towards the end of the weekend. While the NBM doesn`t
currently produce mentionable PoPs, this feature is highlighted
by multiple periods of 5 to 10 percent PoPs. A more prominent
wave is possible during the first half of the next workweek,
with models consistently progging a clipper passing through the
region. Most models and recent model runs favor a more northern
track that would keep the highest impacts in Canada, though a
more southern track that could produce winter weather impacts
over the state definitely remains plausible as well.

While uncertainty remains in regard to potential precipitation,
higher confidence remains in a cooling trend to finish out the
month. Overall, there is little question in regard to colder
temperatures returning towards the latter half of next week. The
question is more so whether or not said temperatures become
seasonable or unseasonably cold, as well as the duration of such
colder temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1006 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Low stratus, areas of fog and light rain will be on the increase
overnight.

MVFR to IFR stratus continues to push into southern ND and has
reached KBIS and is forecast to reach KJMS around 06 UTC. Mid
clouds and scattered showers is pushing northeast through
southwest ND and into central ND. Currently only a few high
clouds in the northwest and north central, but low clouds are
currently situated over far northwest ND and NE Montana. Low
stratus and possible fog will increase over northwest and
eventually north central ND through the night. Expect MVFR-IFR
ceilings in the stratus over southern ND. IFR-LIFR ceilings and
fog noted with the stratus in NE Montana into southern
Saskatchewan and this is forecast to spread into northwest and
possibly north central ND tonight. The area of light rain that
will track from southwest into central and eventually NE ND,
may see periods of MVFR-IFR ceilings and visibilities, but
overall may see better cigs/vsbys that the areas of stratus to
the north and south while precipitation is falling, but
widespread MVFR should eventually develop here as well late
tonight into Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings will be slow to
clear on Wednesday and may linger through the TAF period over
northern portions of the forecast area, once they develop.
Surface flow will remain light southerly tonight, shifting to
the west over western ND later in the day Wednesday, then
northwest over the entire forecast area by 06Z Thursday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...TWH