363
FXUS63 KBIS 182001
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
201 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20 percent chance of light rain in the James River Valley this
  afternoon. 20 percent chance of rain tonight into Wednesday
  morning across the south.

- Above normal high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s this
  week, with the occasional highs in the upper 30s up in the
  Turtle Mountains and northeast.

- Below normal temperatures are favored for the last week of
  November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Quasi-zonal flow continues across the state. Showers continue to
progress into the southern James River Valley producing light
rain. Shower will push eastward and diminish this evening. High
temperatures are forecast to warm into the 40s to lower 50s this
afternoon. Patchy fog could form across much of the state
tonight, but there is uncertainty on how widespread and
impactful fog will be. Overnight low temperatures are forecast
to drop down into the 30s. A short wave will push across the
state tonight, west to east, through early tomorrow. This will
bring rain to the area as warmer air moves in with a warm front
tonight. Precipitation accumulations are forecast to be light
from a trace to around 0.10 of an inch. High temperatures
tomorrow are forecast to warm into the 40s to lower 50s.

An upper level ridge is forecast to amplify and progress across
the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Thursday into
Friday. This will lead to temperatures lingering in the 40s to
50s through the weekend. Surface high pressure is forecast to
move into the western North Dakota Thursday clearing much of the
cloudy skies. Surface high pressure will lead to low
temperatures into the 20s Friday morning. Northwesterly flow
will dominate the upper level pattern this weekend. However,
there are no waves really forecast to move through the region
leading to dry conditions. Forecast models are picking up on a
potential system next week bringing in cold Arctic air leading
to below normal temperatures. As for precipitation there is a
lot of uncertainty in the ensembles on where a clipper system
may move through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

MVFR ceilings should clear out of the KBIS area in the next few
hours. VFR conditions will continue this afternoon with some
showers in the James River Valley. Winds will continue out of
the south veering slightly to the southwest by tomorrow. There
is a chance for light precipitation returning tomorrow with some
MVFR ceilings. Western terminals could see patchy fog late
tonight into early tomorrow morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson