Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
200
FNUS73 KBIS 140852
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for Allen WPA...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
352 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on June 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies are anticipated at the time of ignition, along with
temperatures around 50 degrees and relative humidities around 80
percent. Highs today are forecast in the lower 80s, while the
minimum relative humidity is expected to be in the lower 40
percent range. Cloud cover will increase through the late morning
and afternoon, becoming mostly cloudy as chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase for the late afternoon and evening. Winds
will generally be light and out of the south at the time of
ignition, but will strengthen to around 10 to 15 MPH and turn
southeasterly through the day. Gusty and erratic winds are
expected where showers and thunderstorms do develop in the late
afternoon and evening. Slight chances for showers will continue
overnight, with winds becoming southerly by mid Saturday morning.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through much
of the day Saturday, with isolated strong to severe storms possible
through the evening and overnight into Sunday as a cold front
passes across the ignition site. Expected hazards with any
stronger storms would be large hail, strong winds, and the
potential for an isolated tornado. Otherwise, increasing clouds
and southerly winds from 10 to 15 mph are expected. The forecast
high temperature on Saturday is around 85, and the minimum
relative humidity is in the lower 50 percent range.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy by the evening.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late
afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1700, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds around 5 mph becoming south late in
the morning, then shifting to the southeast 7
to 12 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 16 mph increasing to around 17 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (78600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2 2 4 5 6 11 14 30 47 57 59
Weather cov..... SCH
Weather type.... RW
Tstm cov........ SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
Temp............55 60 65 69 71 73 75 76 78 78 78
RH..............81 72 60 53 49 44 41 42 40 42 42
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW S S S SE S SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
20 FT wind gust.7 7 7 9 10 10 12 13 14 17 17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.3 3.2 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.2
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 7 8 9 10 13 15 16 17
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..3 2 8 19 28 36 45 55 68 76 79
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening, then slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 25 percent in the
evening, then decreasing to 0 percent
overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................3 until 0100, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 11 to 14 mph with gusts to
around 22 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (7800 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........68 69 71 75 69 74 79 68 65 59 55 50
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 30 30 30 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).30 40 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 20 20
LAL.............3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
Temp............77 75 73 69 67 66 65 65 64 64 64 64
RH..............47 50 55 66 73 73 75 75 75 75 78 75
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S
20 FT wind spd..12 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 14
20 FT wind gust.18 17 17 18 19 20 20 21 21 21 21 22
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S
Transp wind spd.16 18 16 18 20 21 21 20 20 21 20 20
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..47 19 10 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy becoming cloudy. Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the morning,
with increasing chances through the afternoon
and overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................2 until 0700, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 14 mph with gusts to around
21 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (60700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........51 52 51 57
Weather cov.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).20 30 30 40
LAL.............2 3 3 3
Temp............63 68 74 77
RH..............78 76 71 67
20 FT wind......S 14G21 S 14G21 S 14G20 S 13G19
Mix hgt (ft)....500 1800 2600 3400
Transport wind..S 20 S 23 S 24 S 21
Haines index....3 2 2 3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..9 35 54 60
$$
Forecaster...ADAM
Requested by...Lennie Houle
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416109.0/BIS
.DELDT 06/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lennie_houle@fws.gov